December 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

I agree Tim... I don't think we'll have any issues other then isolated cases where you'll see a reduction in visibility, which can make driving tough on that fact alone. I think roads will be just fine and if any accum is observed it'll be on the grass, car tops, etc.

Les I still remember an event probably over 20 years ago and a day where a few snow showers were expected. I remember it was cloudy but the sun came out around 2pm and by 4 or 430pm a 30 minute snow squall occurred. I was over in the west side of Cincinnati. I left around 5pm and got home around 11pm. The roads everywhere were iced over and this always concerns me when I see a day like Wednesday because this is a nice shot of cold and can just flow to the surface quickly and then boom roads are a mess. No way to treat these as well and I always tell my kids even today though they are 41 and 36 to make sure you have at least 1/2 tank of gas at all times and even more important in the winter. I would love to see a few snow showers but without any problems on the road. These kind of events usually catches models,met's and weather forecasters off guard often so that is why I try and tell folks just watch the weather during this time period and be ready in case we see a period of snow later Wednesday afternoon

I would be more concerned had the 50s not occurred yesterday and today. It'll take a bit for the roads to cool off again IMO.

[tron777]

Bgoney we are on the same page with the mjo and the reason I believe the change to a colder pattern is closer to the New Year or even a tad later. Remarkable the gfs and euro very similar in the ongoing process.

I am a bit earlier with the cooler change. The MJO is weak. Even once it goes into Phase 6, something else maybe driving the pattern and it's not the MJO. I don't see a classic torch pattern that we should be seeing. We could still see a +PNA around Christmas which would offset the warmer pattern you would expect to see. I am like a weak earlier then you Tim with the change. That is the difference in our thoughts at this time.

[Bgoney]

Bgoney we are on the same page with the mjo and the reason I believe the change to a colder pattern is closer to the New Year or even a tad later. Remarkable the gfs and euro very similar in the ongoing process.

I am a bit earlier with the cooler change. The MJO is weak. Even once it goes into Phase 6, something else maybe driving the pattern and it's not the MJO. I don't see a classic torch pattern that we should be seeing. We could still see a +PNA around Christmas which would offset the warmer pattern you would expect to see. I am like a weak earlier then you Tim with the change. That is the difference in our thoughts at this time.

I think what we have settled into the last few days pattern currently is what we will see going forward for a couple weeks. A progressive pattern with cold few days after a low/front passage and back to a warm few days recycle. Mostly a weak PNA pattern that doesn’t extend or connect up into Alaska/Yukon/Arctic( like early December) to really give us an extended Arctic blast, but also as Les mentioned, not an extended warm spell. Snow chances TBD.

[tron777]

Bgoney we are on the same page with the mjo and the reason I believe the change to a colder pattern is closer to the New Year or even a tad later. Remarkable the gfs and euro very similar in the ongoing process.

I am a bit earlier with the cooler change. The MJO is weak. Even once it goes into Phase 6, something else maybe driving the pattern and it's not the MJO. I don't see a classic torch pattern that we should be seeing. We could still see a +PNA around Christmas which would offset the warmer pattern you would expect to see. I am like a weak earlier then you Tim with the change. That is the difference in our thoughts at this time.

I think what we have settled into the last few days pattern currently is what we will see going forward for a couple weeks. A progressive pattern with cold few days after a low/front passage and back to a warm few days recycle. Mostly a weak PNA pattern that doesn’t extend or connect up into Alaska/Yukon/Arctic( like early December) to really give us an extended Arctic blast, but also as Les mentioned, not an extended warm spell. Snow chances TBD.

Great post! I think this sums it up rather nicely.

[tron777]

[tron777]

Too bad it is after Day 10, but the 12Z Euro has an interesting solution today with a cut off / upper low as well as a northern stream low and a Gulf low to the south,

[Bgoney]

Too bad it is after Day 10, but the 12Z Euro has an interesting solution today with a cut off / upper low as well as a northern stream low and a Gulf low to the south,

Juicy! Im lovin the run to run uncertainty in the long range. Warm/ cold /in between. That’s great news is my book.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and not looking at any models this afternoon but just the satellite images and pieces of energy over the eastern half of the country. Issue will those pieces of energy combined and where will that happen. Yesterday I was more on the 1-2 inch side locally and halted the brakes this morning by looking at the models. Wind energy and we talk about this quite often and models tend to underestimate this and we see this many times when a system comes into the west coast with tons of energy and the models just take it out of the system almost when it hits the mountains but the core is still there so once past the mountains it regains strength.

This system which really is just starting to get the ingredients together is peaking my interest more like yesterday. You can get the southern piece of energy that runs up the front that really is sort of stall along the mountains and then another strong piece of energy from the northern plains that has some decent cold air and its own moisture. When and where do they meet is key of course but it looks maybe a negative tilted trough is formed and when this happens systems explode many times and you get moisture further west than models would have with a positive tilted trough. If it goes through and the trough stays positive and gets past the mountains and yes some snow showers and colder and yes some slick spots but with snow showers they can be random. If the trough becomes more negative tilted the storm gets stronger and slows down during the process but also a larger band of snow forms to the west. Could that be just eastern Ohio and Kentucky and sure that is possible but I can see where locally we could be in the band of snow for a few hours later Wednesday afternoon and early evening and yes 1-2 inches possible.

I am not a fan of changing forecast that I have researched and I usually live and die by the sword. This morning I let my guard down and really took more time at looking away from the models and actually seeing what is going on in the eastern half of the USA.

If my forecast has a bust then I am misjudging what I am seeing and give the models the credit. I am such a big energy fan when it comes to winter storms and also when two pieces of energy which are both rather strong have a chance to meet I try and remember from past storms like this what happens. Another way to look at it is the blocking which I do believe will be letting up over the weekend and next week may still be more involved for this system and that can of course slow things down somewhat and that is what I am counting on.

[tron777]

Too bad it is after Day 10, but the 12Z Euro has an interesting solution today with a cut off / upper low as well as a northern stream low and a Gulf low to the south,

Juicy! Im lovin the run to run uncertainty in the long range. Warm/ cold /in between. That’s great news is my book.

Totally agree! We usually see a cutter pattern or a mega torch that locks in and never changes. We're not seeing that so we know a pattern change is coming. We just don't exactly know when as of yet. I'm going with around Christmas time. I know Tim is going with New Year's. Either scenario looks good from this distance.

[Bgoney]

Aleutian Low and a tall ridge along the PNWcoast that will surge our next cold shot here and well into the lower 48 , is giving Alaska a shot of warmth. Western and southern regions have been overwhelmed by warm Pacific air in the last couple of days. Anchorage reached 47°F last night, the highest December temperature since 2019, when it reached 51°F (the monthly record). Nearby Merrill Field and Elmendorf AFB both reached 51°F last night, warmest since 2019. It was even warmer a bit farther north with temps in the mid 50s

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[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 50, DAY 49 and CMH 51 today.

[airwolf76]

I watched a live weather stream the other night DT was a special guest. he talked about the long range a bit and said we will most likely be in phase 7 for later this month and then possibly going into the good phases for January. what he showed and what long range models showed is more cold and clipper type pattern coming as we get closer to the new year and or deeper into January

That was what his This Week in Weather video showed last week also. DT is all in on a colder winter. We shall see! Hope he's right.

yeah that is kind of risky I am not ready to go all in yet on anything however at this point i feel that cold and snow is going to win out over warm and rain overall. from what i have gathered so far i am going with after the 20th or so with chances to cash in as far as any severe cold and snow shots

[tron777]

I watched a live weather stream the other night DT was a special guest. he talked about the long range a bit and said we will most likely be in phase 7 for later this month and then possibly going into the good phases for January. what he showed and what long range models showed is more cold and clipper type pattern coming as we get closer to the new year and or deeper into January

That was what his This Week in Weather video showed last week also. DT is all in on a colder winter. We shall see! Hope he's right.

yeah that is kind of risky I am not ready to go all in yet on anything however at this point i feel that cold and snow is going to win out over warm and rain overall. from what i have gathered so far i am going with after the 20th or so with chances to cash in as far as any severe cold and snow shots

I agree Charles. We should tone down to more seasonal temps for Christmas and get a change to colder as time goes on. Early January could offer up another arctic outbreak too.

[tron777]

Good morning all! A band of light snow is moving thru the area this morning. A dusting is possible. Then we'll get a break and see more scattered snow showers / squalls later this afternoon and evening. Another covering is possible with that activity also. Main roads I think will be fine. If any slick spots occur, it'll be on untreated surfaces and less traveled roads.

[tron777]

It's snowing pretty good out there but I encountered no issues on the roads. There is a grassy covering now as well as car tops, etc but that's the only accum I am seeing thus far.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and snow coming down but not sticking to the roads. Later today some snow showers but my prediction of another pieces of energy getting involved will not happen. I will take my lumps on this one as that piece of energy to the west looked quite nice yesterday is not looking so nice this morning.. At least we will have some snow showers later and if we see that sun come out that could enhance those showers late this afternoon. Will talk more about the extended later this morning

[tron777]

Good Morning and snow coming down but not sticking to the roads. Later today some snow showers but my prediction of another pieces of energy getting involved will not happen. I will take my lumps on this one as that piece of energy to the west looked quite nice yesterday is not looking so nice this morning.. At least we will have some snow showers later and if we see that sun come out that could enhance those showers late this afternoon. Will talk more about the extended later this morning

That is expected Tim. The sun should come out to steepen up those lapse rates for the snow showers / squalls later this afternoon and evening. They will be scattered but where they occur, vis will drop and another covering could be put down in a few spots.

[Bgoney]

Beautiful 10 minutes of snow here and a dusting. Melting on pavement

[Bgoney]

A good mix of pre frontal warmth and post frontal cold temp periods over the next couple weeks we talked about yesterday from the EU Oz.

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[tron777]

0.07" of QPF has fallen so far at CVG this morning. It'll be interesting to see how much of that stuck when the 5pm climate report comes out.

[Bgoney]

0.07" of QPF has fallen so far at CVG this morning. It'll be interesting to see how much of that stuck when the 5pm climate report comes out.

I have about .75” here on grassy areas, in about 25 minutes, so a good bet at least that much to measure at cvg. Adding to the total snowfall contest.

[tron777]

One report so far is into the weather service.

Code: Select all

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
623 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 AM     Snow             3 W Landen              39.30N 84.33W
12/11/2024  M0.5 Inch        Warren             OH   Trained Spotter

[tron777]

Now that it is light enough to see outside, we probably have 0.50 to 0.75" on the grass here in Mason.

[Mjr]

Good morning
Barn truck hood measured 1.0 inch.
There’s nothing like snow on pine trees
Wrapped with Christmas lights

[tron777]