Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Nov 10, 2024 8:59 am What a nice system and some heavy rain along the river near Owensboro with over 3.5 inches of rainfall. Adding GOM moisture with a decent system helps and something we have not seen much of the past 4-5 months. Always nice to watch systems either coming up from the southwest or just across the country because we are able to how strong these system are imo easier forecasts.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Nov 10, 2024 8:54 am So far cvg at .76” Kday .50” kcmh .35”

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 10, 2024 10:07 am The front for next week (Wed / Thurs time frame) isn't looking too impressive to me. Some light rain certainly is possible, but will leave amounts in the 0.25 to 0.50" range for now until we see how much available moisture that we have to work with. Then, another system after that as we approach the 20th. Then do we turn cooler for a bit? As you would expect, the OP GFS is all over the place. 0Z run has the cold delayed until we get closer to Thanksgiving, then you have the 6Z run bringing first flakes of the season now after the 20th.

Looking at the Ensembles, which is what we should be doing this far out anyway shows a -NAO briefly hooking up with the SE ridge but that linkage breaks down with ridging retrograding back to the west. The Aleutian ridge tries to go more poleward so we get some troughing into the East after the 20th. Nice +PNA ridging over the west into Canada too. The position of that ridge is critical for us with regards to the location of the down stream trough. It is nice seeing the ensembles are finally starting to hint at this.

What is helping is the MJO. I was wrong. The MJO stayed fairly strong thru Phase 8 and is in Phase 1 as of 11/8. It is still supposed to weaken as it heads towards 2 and 3. Then it goes into Phases 4 again for the warmer phases in early December. So this goes along with the idea of the colder pattern being transient with warmth coming back early to mid December. Now if the MJO stays weak in those warmer phases, then maybe the warmth will be somewhat muted too? We'll see how that goes. But we are seeing signs of a change coming. How long it lasts after the 20th remains to be seen.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 10, 2024 10:30 am It's mainly the oaks now in my hood for leaf droppage. Most everything else is about down.

young pup wrote: ↑Sun Nov 10, 2024 10:48 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 10, 2024 10:30 am It's mainly the oaks now in my hood for leaf droppage. Most everything else is about down.

Yes the good ole oaks, bradford pears. and ginkos up here. My bet is that most of the ginkos are down now. I will need to go look at a couple of clients that have those. I hate those. lol Got some maples that still have some left.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 10, 2024 10:07 am The front for next week (Wed / Thurs time frame) isn't looking too impressive to me. Some light rain certainly is possible, but will leave amounts in the 0.25 to 0.50" range for now until we see how much available moisture that we have to work with. Then, another system after that as we approach the 20th. Then do we turn cooler for a bit? As you would expect, the OP GFS is all over the place. 0Z run has the cold delayed until we get closer to Thanksgiving, then you have the 6Z run bringing first flakes of the season now after the 20th.

Looking at the Ensembles, which is what we should be doing this far out anyway shows a -NAO briefly hooking up with the SE ridge but that linkage breaks down with ridging retrograding back to the west. The Aleutian ridge tries to go more poleward so we get some troughing into the East after the 20th. Nice +PNA ridging over the west into Canada too. The position of that ridge is critical for us with regards to the location of the down stream trough. It is nice seeing the ensembles are finally starting to hint at this.

What is helping is the MJO. I was wrong. The MJO stayed fairly strong thru Phase 8 and is in Phase 1 as of 11/8. It is still supposed to weaken as it heads towards 2 and 3. Then it goes into Phases 4 again for the warmer phases in early December. So this goes along with the idea of the colder pattern being transient with warmth coming back early to mid December. Now if the MJO stays weak in those warmer phases, then maybe the warmth will be somewhat muted too? We'll see how that goes. But we are seeing signs of a change coming. How long it lasts after the 20th remains to be seen.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 10, 2024 11:52 am Wow @ the 12Z GFS. A 1052 MB high over S Canada by Days 10-11. Hope it's not a fantasy. That is impressive for November standards.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 10, 2024 11:59 am Things can flip on a dime, both good and bad for winter lovers. If that high isn't a mirage that bodes well for later in the season in my opinion. That tells us that the cold air is building and we're getting a good flow from Siberia. You need that connection to keep Canada filled with cold air for our systems to tap into.

I still think there is one more named TS coming from the Caribbean area again but again like Rafael, there may or may not be CONUS impacts. Then I think that tropics are about done as we head towards Turkey Time,