Absolute Vorticity

Had to use the wipers on the way home from work today. Nothing here at the dome of course.

I thought it would feel colder than it did today being so warm over the weekend but actually felt kind of nice.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2024 5:45 pm I thought it would feel colder than it did today being so warm over the weekend but actually felt kind of nice.

I agree. The wind wasn't too bad so I'm sure that helped.

54 here and at CVG for the daytime high. The actual high for the day will be at midnight which was 55 at CVG, 57 here.

CVG got to 55, DAY 56 and CMH 57 today.

what a beautiful perfect mid October fall weather here. sunny, breezy 55-60 degrees for highs. this is the stuff you just cant get enough of. you just go outside and soak it up as much a you can while it lasts

Good morning all! The shower coverage is a little better then I expected this morning. We could even see a t-storm this afternoon. Please post if you get any graupel. That is wintry precip you know. Mid to upper 40s now, and we will only rise a few degrees into the low and mid 50s today. That's it! Once skies clear after midnight, that sets us up for our first frost of the season. The boys have issued frost advisories accordingly.

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost formation.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Indiana, northern Kentucky, and
southwest Ohio.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive
outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.


For folks North of the Tri-state, and our rural Eastern counties, there is a freeze warning out for tonight!!! Dayton and Columbus posters, hello!

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Indiana, northeast
and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, southwest, and
west central Ohio.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other
sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
plumbing.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2024 5:45 pm I thought it would feel colder than it did today being so warm over the weekend but actually felt kind of nice.

I agree on Monday it felt warmer than the temperature and funny on Sunday when we got to 79 it felt colder with the wind.

Good Morning and a few showers this morning but light at best. Chances for frost the next 3 mornings and can we get a light freeze and some spots yes but not expecting widespread freeze.

The tropics are still active but much further south and this is one reason we can fronts starting to head further south in the eastern half of the country.

The second half of October does look busier but how much rain we can get is still up in the air because how much GOM influence will head this way. I do believe as we get into next week rain chances do go up and we start getting the old rinse and repeat that Les mentions. Warm up then get a front with hopefully some rainfall then we get cool or even cold for a few days and then warm up again.

So yes still not the most exciting weather in the world but better than we have seen the past few months.

I agree Tim with regards to the frost threats this week. We are on the same page for sure there. What I am seeing is a warming trend starting this weekend and lasting into next week. Then we get another front towards the end of next week that knocks us back down into the 60s again. Then I expect another warm up after that. The Euro AI and now the 0Z GFS in the fantasy range, want to turn us colder as we approach the end of the month. If this occurs, and this far out, that's a big if, I still believe it is only temporary as I expect big time ridging for early November along with mild weather once again. I am hopeful for a wetter pattern by then though even if it is warm. As usual, we'll see how things look the closer we get in time. I am sure further adjusts to the call will be needed.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 8:28 amIMG_2444.jpeg

Wow! That is so impressive to see almost all of the country running below avg for precip. Kind of crazy in fact!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 9:00 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 8:28 amIMG_2444.jpeg

Wow! That is so impressive to see almost all of the country running below avg for precip. Kind of crazy in fact!

It won’t take much to change the country to a wetter pattern since it only can go up from here , but October will still end up below normal in qpf for a large part of the country

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 9:13 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 9:00 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 8:28 amIMG_2444.jpeg

Wow! That is so impressive to see almost all of the country running below avg for precip. Kind of crazy in fact!

It won’t take much to change the country to a wetter pattern since it only can go up from here , but October will still end up below normal in qpf for a large part of the country

For sure. I've seen some long range indications from the ECMWF Ensemble of November being drier then avg also for us. Hope that's wrong!

There are some pretty cool cloud features out there today. I can see some pretty dark skies now here in Mason and I can see a rain shaft coming out of one of them. Looks like that shower will pass by to the north. I saw some sunshine earlier this morning too which will help to heat the ground and steepen the lapse rates. With the cold air aloft, as discussed this morning, an isolated t-storm is possible this afternoon and some of the stronger cells can produce graupel.

Just had graupel here in Amelia.

Mjr wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 12:41 pm Just had graupel here in Amelia.

Awesome! Thanks for the report. Hopefully a few more of you will see it.

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tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 11:37 am There are some pretty cool cloud features out there today. I can see some pretty dark skies now here in Mason and I can see a rain shaft coming out of one of them. Looks like that shower will pass by to the north. I saw some sunshine earlier this morning too which will help to heat the ground and steepen the lapse rates. With the cold air aloft, as discussed this morning, an isolated t-storm is possible this afternoon and some of the stronger cells can produce graupel.

Great Post Les and no doubt this is one of the more exciting days in the weather world for us except for the rain from Helene

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 1:55 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 11:37 am There are some pretty cool cloud features out there today. I can see some pretty dark skies now here in Mason and I can see a rain shaft coming out of one of them. Looks like that shower will pass by to the north. I saw some sunshine earlier this morning too which will help to heat the ground and steepen the lapse rates. With the cold air aloft, as discussed this morning, an isolated t-storm is possible this afternoon and some of the stronger cells can produce graupel.

Great Post Les and no doubt this is one of the more exciting days in the weather world for us except for the rain from Helene

Seeing a bit of sun again here in Mason. Hopefully that will promote some afternoon development. This is it for a while once again.

53 at CVG today with 0.01" of rain recorded. Just about the same thing for my hood. Anymore reports of graupel? I never saw any personally. Just a few light sprinkley showers.

Frost and freeze advisories are out for a good chunk of real estate.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 5:29 pm 53 at CVG today with 0.01" of rain recorded. Just about the same thing for my hood. Anymore reports of graupel? I never saw any personally. Just a few light sprinkley showers.

Yes sir!!! Around 530 or so had about 2-3 minutes of banging on the glass. Not much of course and melted quickly but getting me excited for winter. Nothing new in the longer term and if this pattern would continue into the late fall and winter then it could be the clipper train for us. Again way too early and many things can change but gives us something to talk about in the near term

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 5:52 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 5:29 pm 53 at CVG today with 0.01" of rain recorded. Just about the same thing for my hood. Anymore reports of graupel? I never saw any personally. Just a few light sprinkley showers.

Yes sir!!! Around 530 or so had about 2-3 minutes of banging on the glass. Not much of course and melted quickly but getting me excited for winter. Nothing new in the longer term and if this pattern would continue into the late fall and winter then it could be the clipper train for us. Again way too early and many things can change but gives us something to talk about in the near term

Nice Tim! That's two reports for today for wintry precip.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 5:29 pm 53 at CVG today with 0.01" of rain recorded. Just about the same thing for my hood. Anymore reports of graupel? I never saw any personally. Just a few light sprinkley showers.

You must've missed my post on Monday, I actually saw some then!