Absolute Vorticity

Good Morning and Les your forecast looks good. Isolated at best with showers today as you mentioned and probably on Friday again not out of the question as well but again very isolated. The heat is on and always different kinds of heat and one we usually see in early June or late August is temps to rise above 90 but dew points stay in the low-mid 60's. Then we have the heat headed this way and temps in the 90's and dew points in the 70's. My guess we will have a heat advisory for at least a few days and then another front will head this way but mid-July is never easy for these fronts to make it all the way through the Ohio Valley. Worse case is we stay just south of the front for several days and that warm moist air will work towards the front and you get a couple of days with highs between 93-96 an dew points in the low 70's and heat index above 105. I believe that could happen and may just be in the perfect spot for that type of weather. Is this heat one that goes on for weeks and the models are not sold on this but I am not sold on the models lol. Today is the day to go outside as temps not bad and humidity is not bad either

Thanks Tim and good morning! I agree about today. If you need to get something done without sweating a ton, today is your day. Due to clouds and the small shower chances, we probably won't hit 90+ again until Saturday. Looks like a hot summer time weekend in store. For POPS next week, timing indicates a small chance Tues with Wed offering up the best chance with a cold front. Does it stall and offer up more chances, or does it blow thru the area to briefly cool us down? We'll have to wait and see once we get closer.

CVG reached 90, DAY 85 and CMH 88 today.

It’s only fitting we go from a 2 year absence of the SE ridge to a possible record breaking strength SE ridge (500mb level) in the coming days. Just need to get the SW ridge to cooperate for an occasional NWflow. I know, a big ask

Good Evening and a nice toasty day. Why do models miss on temps today and this happens quite often in the summer. When you either have a nice cold front that is north of us or a small disturbance that is usually west of us and this allows the heat to flow towards the disturbance and you get a day like today where the temp go to 90. No big deal and we see this in the winter as well in our area that living in a valley clouds move out much slower and we are about 3-5 degrees colder than models show especially for high temps but yes we may be warmer at night as well.

Going to be hot through Wednesday and models are showing some decent chances of rain next week and another nice cold front. I hope my forecast is wrong because I expected at least another 6-8 days of heat but will take any cooler weather in July and matter of face the longer term forecast has us with below normal temps later next week. That would be a big miss on my part and one I will gladly take. Hopefully we can get some decent rain as well and playing golf today the fairways and near the green were in rather bad shape because of the lack of rain.

Good morning all! We could see 90 again today unless a pop up storm ruins it at CVG. We do stand the risk of an isolated PM storm this weekend but most will remain dry. We can lock in the 90s this weekend and probably thru at least Tues of next week. If the front is slower then expected, add Wed to the list but as of now I expect the front to pass sometime on Wed. Until then, we bake!

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 12, 2024 5:35 am Good morning all! We could see 90 again today unless a pop up storm ruins it at CVG. We do stand the risk of an isolated PM storm this weekend but most will remain dry. We can lock in the 90s this weekend and probably thru at least Tues of next week. If the front is slower then expected, add Wed to the list but as of now I expect the front to pass sometime on Wed. Until then, we bake!

Good Morning Les and forecast looks great. I expect Monday and Tuesday to have a heat advisory but only 2 days is not bad. Matter of fact the talk of heat across the USA this summer has been way overstated. The west has no doubt been hot for a long stretch but folks east of the Rockies have only had heat spells here and there. The longer term models are trying to keep us cooler than normal for much of the next 2 months which is a big change from earlier predictions. We will see how good the models are but when the west is hot we are still able to get cold fronts to move through like next week. My guess on the models is the tropics are sort of quiet and when they pick up again in a few weeks the models will probably back off some on the cooler temps. Besides the lack of rain this summer temp wise has not been bad at all an though we are adding a little more humidity over the next several days the stretch of hot and humid days are really a small number.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jul 12, 2024 6:43 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 12, 2024 5:35 am Good morning all! We could see 90 again today unless a pop up storm ruins it at CVG. We do stand the risk of an isolated PM storm this weekend but most will remain dry. We can lock in the 90s this weekend and probably thru at least Tues of next week. If the front is slower then expected, add Wed to the list but as of now I expect the front to pass sometime on Wed. Until then, we bake!

Good Morning Les and forecast looks great. I expect Monday and Tuesday to have a heat advisory but only 2 days is not bad. Matter of fact the talk of heat across the USA this summer has been way overstated. The west has no doubt been hot for a long stretch but folks east of the Rockies have only had heat spells here and there. The longer term models are trying to keep us cooler than normal for much of the next 2 months which is a big change from earlier predictions. We will see how good the models are but when the west is hot we are still able to get cold fronts to move through like next week. My guess on the models is the tropics are sort of quiet and when they pick up again in a few weeks the models will probably back off some on the cooler temps. Besides the lack of rain this summer temp wise has not been bad at all an though we are adding a little more humidity over the next several days the stretch of hot and humid days are really a small number.

Thanks Tim and good morning! The lack of rain is truly my only major compliant. Glad we got a little last night. CVG picked up 0.20" I'm still waiting on a solid 1" soaker but that may not occur unless the tropics get involved again or during the fall months. But anyway, I'll take whatever I can get at The Dome and my lawn is still in rough shape but we are getting enough rain so that it at least isn't getting worse.

Hey Les and just listened to Brian's video from Thursday. Nothing major and when you see the maps for later this year they normally this far away will put out your basic forecast depending on the Enso state. Most models have La Nina and that means warmer south because you normally get less precip and cooler north as you tend to get colder weather in Canada. Again only a basic model forecast and nothing that helps much in forecasting the upcoming winter.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jul 12, 2024 7:30 am Hey Les and just listened to Brian's video from Thursday. Nothing major and when you see the maps for later this year they normally this far away will put out your basic forecast depending on the Enso state. Most models have La Nina and that means warmer south because you normally get less precip and cooler north as you tend to get colder weather in Canada. Again only a basic model forecast and nothing that helps much in forecasting the upcoming winter.

Yeah... it's almost time to start up our early thoughts thread speaking of the upcoming winter. Another La Nina so my expectations are currently very low unless something else besides ENSO drives the pattern.

North of 71 showing results in at least a temporary fashion of moisture improvement over the last 10 days

Seeing a couple of isolated downpours north of us on radar. 82 with a dew of 68 at CVG as of 11am. 1500 J/KG of CAPE but the better shear has moved off to the East. The coverage today I don't think will be as good as it was yesterday.

So far, I can't complain. We racked up 0.9 earlier this week, then 0.4 last night. Yards are looking good in the neighborhood.

Wxlrnr wrote: ↑Fri Jul 12, 2024 12:38 pm So far, I can't complain. We racked up 0.9 earlier this week, then 0.4 last night. Yards are looking good in the neighborhood.

We could use amounts like that in NKY. Lawns are trying to recover but we're just not getting the amounts that you guys north of the river are receiving. It is amazing to see the rainfall distribution over such a short distance.

Getting dark here in Mason... might have a t-storm incoming.

EDIT: Looks like CVG got a tad bit of rain too. 0.03" as of 2pm.

Heavy rain in Mason...

CVG now up to 0.46" - Sure hope we got some of that at home. In Mason.... we are getting hit with a big t-storm. Milford will also get hit out by my Brothers it appears as well. I guess my call on storm coverage was wrong for today but I'm not complaining sine we need the rain.

Just got another 0.2 here, total so far this week 1.5 inches.

I was at my mother-n-laws house this morning to cut grass and then around 2pm got a nice shower. Not much every little bit helps. Out here in Independence another goose egg so far.

Received close to two thirds of an inch of rain this afternoon and a quarter of an inch last night, dummy me forgot to close my car windows overnight and just discovered it an hour ago! Soaked inside! Ugh

At work in Indian hill, got an inch on 30 min. Here in Mojave’sburg, another shutout. I don’t even have a total of an inch for the whole month and they got it in 30 minutes

Longer term models are really looking for us to cool down late next week. Wow getting and nice bit of Canadian air in the 3rd week of July sounds wonderful. If we keep the dry ground for some areas and we do get the nice shot of air maybe some upper 50's possible at night. Just the opposite of what I thought would happen as I expected an extended run of heat but the heat wants to remain out west and also to the southeast but these fronts are still stronger than I thought. It does make a difference to the northwest and with all the rain over the past few months air masses can move further south and east than normal. Usually the northern plains and upper mid-west have their hottest period from mid-June - mid-July and one reason this is the time period with the most daylight hours. We do as well but its just a different on that works in certain parts of the world.

CVG got to 88, DAY 86 and CMH 91 today.

Today’s isolated winners







And for the week