Absolute Vorticity

Rain off to the West is looking like it is diving to the SE where the better instability is and also where the warm front is. Tim,... we are in agreement for tonight.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2024 4:27 pm That would be one heck of a low track for mid May , that the EU has for late next week.

I said it the other day.... where was this pattern in winter?

Thru 5/7, at CVG, 3.18" so far has fallen for the month of May. Normal to date is only 1.13" which is 2.05" above normal. Your local results will vary. Anyway.... based on the continued active pattern I am seeing in the extended range, could we end up with a Top Ten wet May? At CVG, at #10 is 8.03" set back in 2002 so we have a while to go. Note: These numbers will be updated shortly via the 5 pm climate report for today. This is not counting any rain that CVG got after midnight last night.

EDIT for the 5pm climate report. Thru today at 5pm, CVG is now up to 3.77" for the month.

80 for the high at CVG today, 81 for my hood.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2024 8:39 am Awesome Ang!

I don't know if we have any posters in the Reily Township area of Butler Co, but I believe a possible tornado went thru there and ILN will be doing a storm damage survey in that area today.

Heading home from Cincy (Clifton) on Wed afternoon after a routine appt I had at UC Health, my Dad, while we were passing through Seven Mile saw a downed tree.

A NWS team also confirmed that a tornado did some damage in part of north Greenville on Tues night. The twister went over my aunt's condo e.g. and thankfully her condo is okay but bless her heart as she and others in that part of the city have been without power since around 8 o'clock Tues night. There was storm debris in my aunt's driveway and yard and leaves were "plastered" on her windows and condo paneling. Just so very thankful that no injuries or deaths occurred in the region. One of her condo neighbors sustained some roof damage.

0020 2 ESE Montezuma Mercer OH 4047 8451 EF2 tornado confirmed west of New Knoxville in Mercer and Auglaize counties in Ohio. Maximum winds of 130 MPH. (ILN)

0024 4 W Greenville Darke OH 4010 8470 EF1 tornado confirmed in and near Greenville in Darke County Ohio. Maximum winds of 110 MPH. (ILN)

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CVG got to 80 and both DAY / CMH 82 on Wed.

Good morning all! Some light rain out there this morning in some areas but the severe threat stayed well to the south as expected AND the flood watch got cancelled early too. All wonderful news (minus those locations who still need some rain of course - I totally understand that). Temps will be a good 10 degrees cooler today in the 70 to 75 degree range along with areas of light rain from time to time. Once the front passes then we drop into the 60s for tomorrow. I cannot rule out a shower Fri afternoon but the vast majority of you will stay dry. On Sat, expect our next cold front to pass from NW to SE across the area with some light rain possible, maybe a rumble of thunder. This is not a huge system at all. Mother's Day looks good with temps rebounding back towards 70 maybe even the low 70s in some spots with plenty of sunshine! Lows in the 40s Fri night and Sat night can be expected.

For next week... A small shower chance late Monday with the best chances looking to be Tues and Wed of next week. Temps will rebound back into the middle and upper 70s by then with lows on either side of 60. So that will be our next pretty active period to keep our eyes on at this point. For the second half of next week on into next weekend, the models diverge significantly so we'll worry about that once we get closer.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu May 09, 2024 12:27 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2024 8:39 am Awesome Ang!

I don't know if we have any posters in the Reily Township area of Butler Co, but I believe a possible tornado went thru there and ILN will be doing a storm damage survey in that area today.

Heading home from Cincy (Clifton) on Wed afternoon after a routine appt I had at UC Health, my Dad, while we were passing through Seven Mile saw a downed tree.

I hope your appointment went well Bro!

NWS ILN has confirmed an 8th tornado now in Butler Co. There could be more in the days to come. The boys have been hard at work with more work still ahead.

I checked the radar loop from overnight and there was a nice line of storms that trained N of Dayton along / N of I-70 for a couple of hours in the 12-2am window. Hopefully folks like Bo were able to cash in on that activity. That same boundary is still there running from N ILL and the Chicago area SE towards Columbus. Surface low of 1002 MB over Southern ILL (East of the STL Metro) will track ESE towards, maybe just a little SW of LOU. We are fair game for some showers today (a few t-storms too) until we get that boundary north of us to pass and clear everything out. SPC does have the entire area in a marginal risk for severe wx today but clearly the best action will remain will to our south over TN. The front should pass thru the region this evening.

The boys had this to say for today:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weakening showers are expected to continue to diminish early
this morning as a disturbance tracks to east of the area.

Low pressure in Illinois early this morning will move east into
the forecast area this afternoon. Showers and some thunderstorms
will become more prevalent ahead of and north of the low track.
Meanwhile, south of the low, expect to destabilize, although
there is some uncertainty with how much. This will lead to the
development of thunderstorms south of the low and trailing cold
front. There will be sufficient shear for storm organization, so
there could be some strong to severe thunderstorms in the
southern half of the forecast area. Wind and hail will be
possible and a tornado cannot be ruled out, although if winds
veer south of the low, that potential will become very low.

Expect a fairly substantial temperature gradient across the area
with highs ranging from the lower 60s in west central Ohio to
the upper 70s in northern Kentucky.

0.03" at CVG overnight. We shall see what else can pop up ahead of the cold front later. We're socked in with clouds right now but the visible shows a couple of breaks to the West so we'll see what happens there. I don't think that things will get out of hand or anything like that today but a few storms will be possible until the cooler air moves in for tomorrow - weekend.

Good Morning Les and nice to get a break from the rain. Hopefully like you mentioned the folks that needed some rain got it overnight. I had zero in the rain guage so that is a nice break. Today's action looks more isolated but it usually ends up hitting the golf course around 2-3pm during my golf league lol. The extended still is busy and again want a break from the rain but always scared to turn off the faucet this early in the spring.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu May 09, 2024 8:32 am Good Morning Les and nice to get a break from the rain. Hopefully like you mentioned the folks that needed some rain got it overnight. I had zero in the rain guage so that is a nice break. Today's action looks more isolated but it usually ends up hitting the golf course around 2-3pm during my golf league lol. The extended still is busy and again want a break from the rain but always scared to turn off the faucet this early in the spring.

Good morning Tim! I know in some areas folks would like to see that faucet turn off for about a week, esp our local farmer's. But looking at it from an IMBY standpoint, I am with you. I personally would rather get as much rain as we can to get our lawns and gardens as strong as possible because we all know that at some point every year, The Dome re-strengthens and we get the heat with little rainfall. From what I can see, I don't think that any big heat is coming for May. It's a little too soon for me to see how early June will go, but for the rest of this month, I think things will continue to remain active with temps ranging from the 60s to the 80s for highs which is nothing out of the ordinary for May.

As of 5/7, The La Nina continues to develop as well as the -PDO.


https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu May 09, 2024 5:58 am I checked the radar loop from overnight and there was a nice line of storms that trained N of Dayton along / N of I-70 for a couple of hours in the 12-2am window. Hopefully folks like Bo were able to cash in on that activity. That same boundary is still there running from N ILL and the Chicago area SE towards Columbus. Surface low of 1002 MB over Southern ILL (East of the STL Metro) will track ESE towards, maybe just a little SW of LOU. We are fair game for some showers today (a few t-storms too) until we get that boundary north of us to pass and clear everything out. SPC does have the entire area in a marginal risk for severe wx today but clearly the best action will remain will to our south over TN. The front should pass thru the region this evening.

It must be the "squeaky wheel syndrome"....complain about getting missed by the rain and then get an inch overnight.

Les your forecast looks good and I wonder towards I-70 that we don't see a few stronger storms. Not sure about severe but we getting into mid-May and the sun can no doubt help ignite storms. I agree the best shot of severe weather that is more widespread is well south of us. Sinus problems today but hopefully this weekend and nice air mass will help that out.

snowbo wrote: ↑Thu May 09, 2024 9:22 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu May 09, 2024 5:58 am I checked the radar loop from overnight and there was a nice line of storms that trained N of Dayton along / N of I-70 for a couple of hours in the 12-2am window. Hopefully folks like Bo were able to cash in on that activity. That same boundary is still there running from N ILL and the Chicago area SE towards Columbus. Surface low of 1002 MB over Southern ILL (East of the STL Metro) will track ESE towards, maybe just a little SW of LOU. We are fair game for some showers today (a few t-storms too) until we get that boundary north of us to pass and clear everything out. SPC does have the entire area in a marginal risk for severe wx today but clearly the best action will remain will to our south over TN. The front should pass thru the region this evening.

It must be the "squeaky wheel syndrome"....complain about getting missed by the rain and then get an inch overnight.

Awesome! Glad to see you finally cashed in! Excellent!

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu May 09, 2024 9:46 am Les your forecast looks good and I wonder towards I-70 that we don't see a few stronger storms. Not sure about severe but we getting into mid-May and the sun can no doubt help ignite storms. I agree the best shot of severe weather that is more widespread is well south of us. Sinus problems today but hopefully this weekend and nice air mass will help that out.

No doubt Tim! My sinuses could definitely use a break!

12Z GFS keeps the hits on coming in the extended range so honestly, no major wholescale changes to what has already been discussed. In the short term, the broad low of 1004 Mb is currently tracking right thru the region. I thought it would dive a little further SE down towards LOU but whatever. End results are still going to be the same. Clouds are certainly keeping temps down today but despite that, we do have some CAPE over the area 500-1000 J/KG and some decent shear at 50 knots. However, the lapse rates are poor in the low and mid levels so I wouldn't expect to see a ton of t-storm coverage today, nor anything that gets super intense. PWATS are in the 1.1 to 1.2" range so a few heavier downpours are possible where storms develop. The current radar picture does show some showers popping up esp N of the Tri-state but these are scattered in coverage. I would expect us to be fair game thru the evening hours for scattered shower and isolated t-storms but once the front passes tonight, cooler and drier air will settle into the region as previously discussed. That'll set us up for a cooler period along with more showers Saturday with the next front diving thru the region. Again, Mother's Day into Monday looks good as we begin to warm back up and then we turn active again from Tuesday onwards next week.

ILN is starting to come out with EF ratings now on a lot of the tornadoes that have occurred in our area. You can click on this link below to view the PNS's (Public Information Statements).

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

Some decent scattered storms for the I-70 Crew... Dayton Metro may see some beneficial rains here shortly. Just had a few showers on the way home from work, nothing major. A few sprinkles here at home, now the sun is back out. 72 so far for my high temp today.

BBQing some chicken for dinner and it is partly sunny here with a nice breeze. It feels pretty nice outside!