Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion 2024

[MVWxObserver]

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[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A couple tornadoes possible

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
100 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

...CENTER OF FRANCINE PASSING NORTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS...
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 90.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

------------------

Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 31.3W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[Bgoney]

Searching all the surface wind reports near the coast and buoys, and I find it very difficult to give Francine a cat 2 designation at landfall. You guys see any sustained winds of cat 2?

[tron777]

Searching all the surface wind reports near the coast and buoys, and I find it very difficult to give Francine a cat 2 designation at landfall. You guys see any sustained winds of cat 2?

Best I could find from a land report was a gust to 78 mph from New Orleans International Airport.

[tpweather]

Searching all the surface wind reports near the coast and buoys, and I find it very difficult to give Francine a cat 2 designation at landfall. You guys see any sustained winds of cat 2?

Have not seen any sustained winds that would be a cat 2 though gusts near 100pm in a few areas. No doubt the storm strengthen just before landfall but still believe it should have been a cat 1 unless I am missing some reports.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and something is going on in the central part of the Atlantic. We see these waves come off the African coast and the models show chances of these developing at first but after a few days they seem to go away. The only thing I can think of is the winds are just too strong from west to east which normally this time of year they are rather quiet. If anyone has a clue I would love to know but something out there is not letting these storms strengthen

[tron777]

I hope this link works. If it does, then you can clearly see a lot of wind shear over the Atlantic Basin and Caribbean. It's a big reason why tropical waves have had a tough time developing despite the warm SST's.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

[tpweather]

Thanks for the info Les and the link works. We are in the second half of the hurricane season and will be fun to see the final total on storms

[tron777]

Thanks for the info Les and the link works. We are in the second half of the hurricane season and will be fun to see the final total on storms

I expect ACE to be low for the season, probably under 100.

https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Re ... thatlantic

[Bgoney]

NHC boys and girls can take some more vacation time for a week or two . The position of the Bermuda high is going to curve anything significant away from the east coast. GOM is still the better spot for development in the coming weeks

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A few tornadoes possible

[MVWxObserver]

1330 UNK Cuba Sumter AL 3244 8837 A few trees were blown down around Cuba. (BMX)

1618 UNK 9 SSE Cherokee Colbert AL 3463 8791 Corrects the event and time from the earlier report. Power pole reported down or leaning along Highway 247 near Tuscumbia. (HUN)

1930 UNK Vernon Lamar AL 3376 8811 Trees were blown down and blocking the road. (BMX)

1102 UNK Benning Hills Muscogee GA 3241 8494 Tree down at Victory Drive and Engineer Drive. (FFC)

1110 UNK 1 WNW Miramar Beach Walton FL 3038 8638 Dispatch reported a tree down and lawn debris blown onto the road. (TAE)

2144 125 2 NE Rickwood Caverns Blount AL 3389 8685 (BMX)

2157 UNK 1 SSE Cerulean Trigg KY 3695 8770 Carport blown by thunderstorm wind. (PAH)

2206 UNK 5 SSW Good Hope Cullman AL 3404 8689 Tree reported down along Highway 69 and County Road 223 near Good Hope. (HUN)

2234 UNK 5 W Good Hope Cullman AL 3411 8696 Tree reported down along County Road 820 near Good Hope. (HUN)

2243 UNK 3 WSW Hanceville Cullman AL 3405 8682 Tree reported down along County Road 564 near Hanceville. (HUN)

2243 UNK 2 WSW Hanceville Cullman AL 3405 8680 Tree reported down along County Road 565 near Hanceville. (HUN)

2342 UNK 1 NE Locust Fork Blount AL 3391 8661 Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from 1 NE Locust Fork for time. A few trees were blown down. One on Tabernacle Road ... one on Campbell Road ... and another one on Circle Lane. (BMX)

2353 UNK 3 SSW Nectar Blount AL 3393 8666 A few trees down ... some involving power lines and road blockage. (BMX)

0149 UNK 7 E Rogersville Limestone AL 3483 8717 Tree reported down along Lentzville Road and Lakeside Estates near Rogersville. (HUN)

[tron777]

Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024

...DEPRESSION HOLDING STEADY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 37.0W
ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


TD 7 should become TS Gordon today.

[tron777]

We have TS Gordon now. This one is expected to remain weak system throughout its life.

Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 AM AST Sat Sep 14 2024

...POORLY ORGANIZED GORDON MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN
WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 40.9W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1840 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

We also have a wave now off the Carolina coast. A 50% chance in the next 5 days to develop. This is the one that may or may not give us the rain chance on Wed.

[tron777]

Gordon is barely holding on to TS status. It will be downgraded into a TD shortly and fizzle out in a few more days. Meanwhile, the wave off the Carolina coast is holding at a 50% chance of development.

[tron777]

Gordon is now a TD. But we have PTC 8 off the Carolina coast. Can it become tropical before hitting land?

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...DISTURBANCE DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND COASTAL
FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 78.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[tron777]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...
...GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 78.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

We will probably see TS Helene prior to this thing making landfall tonight.

[House of Cards]

I feel like they are sticking names on a few of these to pump their numbers up; some of these aren't much more than a fart in a mudpuddle but they're getting named/designated.

[tron777]

I feel like they are sticking names on a few of these to pump their numbers up; some of these aren't much more than a fart in a mudpuddle but they're getting named/designated.

The ACE score will be a bit skewed due to Beryl earlier in the season. Without Beryl, so far, this would be one of the quietest seasons on record.

[tron777]

We never dd get Helene from the Carolina wave as it's now onshore. TD Gordon is still barely surviving.

[MVWxObserver]

We never dd get Helene from the Carolina wave as it's now onshore. TD Gordon is still barely surviving.

Between 15 to nearly 20 inches has fallen in parts of eastern NC! My folks and I have a friend from NC who went to Topsail Beach a few days ago for a vacation. She has some pics of flooding on FB.

[tron777]

Our next wave to track is out in the Eastern ATL. NHC has it pegged at a 60% chance in the next 5 days.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[House of Cards]

Our next wave to track is out in the Eastern ATL. NHC has it pegged at a 60% chance in the next 5 days.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Now down to 30% chance of development. But NHC needs to add to their total of named storms, so we'll see what happens.

[tron777]

Our next wave to track is out in the Eastern ATL. NHC has it pegged at a 60% chance in the next 5 days.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Now down to 30% chance of development. But NHC needs to add to their total of named storms, so we'll see what happens.

That wave is moving due north so whether it develops or not remains to be seen, but it won't impact the CONUS. Per the modeling, look to the Caribbean sea in the days to come for our potential for the next named system. That would be the one that the GFS keeps showing as a hurricane in the Gulf sometime next week.