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Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:34 pm
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:27 pm
Last batch is moving thru the region now. We have plenty of dynamics with a strengthening low / cold front and we will not need much CAPE for severe wx. With the slow movement of the front, I am very curious to see how much recovery we can get. Keep your guards up until we know that answer.
Les you should get a nice break on the ride home today
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:35 pm
by tron777
MJSun wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:31 pm
Are we still thinking high risk or tornadoes or more severe thunderstorms instead?
I don't think we can answer that question until we see the mode that the storms to our SW take. MY guess though would be a YES if we can get 1000 J/KG of CAPE. If we don't recover enough instability, then the threat would be reduced. Not zero, but reduced. We will need to give it a couple more hours to be completely honest.
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:35 pm
by Trevor
HRRR wants to take us from no CAPE to 1500 in a couple hours. Man that'd be something! As Les said remain vigilant. As I posted on FB the all clear cannot be given until the front clears.
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:36 pm
by MJSun
Bright again in Norwood with light cloud clover, no sun
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:36 pm
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:34 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:27 pm
Last batch is moving thru the region now. We have plenty of dynamics with a strengthening low / cold front and we will not need much CAPE for severe wx. With the slow movement of the front, I am very curious to see how much recovery we can get. Keep your guards up until we know that answer.
Les you should get a nice break on the ride home today
If the traffic isn't already screwed up from recent rains then yeah!
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:36 pm
by Trevor
The ceiling has been lowered, though IMO.
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:37 pm
by MJSun
thanks y'all - I know its quite the nowcast.
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:37 pm
by tron777
Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:35 pm
HRRR wants to take us from no CAPE to 1500 in a couple hours. Man that'd be something! As Les said remain vigilant. As I posted on FB the all clear cannot be given until the front clears.
I don't even think we need 1500. With these dynamics coming in with the front, I think 1000 would be more then enough. Just my opinion of course.
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:37 pm
by tpweather
MJSun wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:31 pm
Are we still thinking high risk or tornadoes or more severe thunderstorms instead?
Hey Mollie, I believe its a toss up at the moment as we see how new development forms to the west. I believe we see strong storms but do we see a tornado or two that forms and and heads northeast. Hopefully in the next couple hours we have a better ideal. No doubt today has been full of changes in the atmosphere in a short period of time.
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:39 pm
by tron777
Low is now down to 992 MB.... and it will continue to strengthen all night long as it moves into the Great Lakes dragging the cold front thru our hoods this evening. I am erroring on the side of caution personally.
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:49 pm
by Trevor
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:39 pm
Low is now down to 992 MB.... and it will continue to strengthen all night long as it moves into the Great Lakes dragging the cold front thru our hoods this evening. I am erroring on the side of caution personally.
Always best to. I am in agreement. Like I said can't call the all-clear until the front moves through. I do question the MDT at this point, though.
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:51 pm
by tron777
Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:49 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:39 pm
Low is now down to 992 MB.... and it will continue to strengthen all night long as it moves into the Great Lakes dragging the cold front thru our hoods this evening. I am erroring on the side of caution personally.
Always best to. I am in agreement. Like I said can't call the all-clear until the front moves through. I do question the MDT at this point, though.
This is a fair post Trev. You have my support.
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:54 pm
by dce
Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:49 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:39 pm
Low is now down to 992 MB.... and it will continue to strengthen all night long as it moves into the Great Lakes dragging the cold front thru our hoods this evening. I am erroring on the side of caution personally.
Always best to. I am in agreement. Like I said can't call the all-clear until the front moves through. I do question the MDT at this point, though.
From what the models have been showing the last 48 hours a moderate risk, in my opinion, was definitely warranted. Have to ride it out at this point no matter what happens.
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:57 pm
by Bgoney
Probably cut down on the number of tornadoes, but definitely not the threat. It only takes one
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:59 pm
by MJSun
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:37 pm
MJSun wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:31 pm
Are we still thinking high risk or tornadoes or more severe thunderstorms instead?
Hey Mollie, I believe its a toss up at the moment as we see how new development forms to the west. I believe we see strong storms but do we see a tornado or two that forms and and heads northeast. Hopefully in the next couple hours we have a better ideal. No doubt today has been full of changes in the atmosphere in a short period of time.
That makes sense!
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:59 pm
by Trevor
Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:57 pm
Probably cut down on the number of tornadoes, but definitely not the threat. It only takes one
HRRR still shows some nasty supercells INVOF the metro in a few hours.
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:59 pm
by Bgoney
I’m shocked there’s not a watch out in the Louisville vicinity
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 3:03 pm
by Trevor
HRRR says 1150j/kg CAPE by 4pm. Seems aggressive.
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 3:10 pm
by Trevor
500j/kg up to NKY counties now.
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 3:18 pm
by snowbo
A friend reported that Wright Patterson Air Force Base evacuated all active aircraft this afternoon. Trying to confirm that now.
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 3:20 pm
by Bgoney
Better parameters inching into cvgland
IMG_1650.jpeg
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 3:24 pm
by Pepper
Dumb question but have not seen the news when are we expecting the next round of storms to come through???
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 3:24 pm
by Mfitz730
Fully cleared in SW Indiana. Warming quickly.
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 3:30 pm
by Bgoney
Re: April 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2024 3:36 pm
by Bgoney
Guessing between 4 and 5 for SE Indiana counties, 5-6 cvgland for next batch