Absolute Vorticity

Looking at the 12Z GFS right now and if nothing changes, I am going with a dry weekend. On Monday, expect rain and snow showers with temps perhaps not making it out of the 30s for highs. 40ish tops! The energy is still staying over the SW so we are just getting the upper low swinging thru on Monday instead of a more organized system. That is the way most of the models have trended as of late.

68 here today... I sowed some grass seed in some bare spots after I got home from work. Going to grill some chicken breasts for supper here shortly. A very nice late afternoon and evening in progress.

12zzzzzzzzzzzzz is a mid month snoozapalooza

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2024 5:29 pm 12zzzzzzzzzzzzz is a mid month snoozapalooza

I believe I went to that concert one time. Very boring

Still looks like later Thursday and Friday has a shot of some decent storms. If we have a day on Thursday where temps get into say the mid-70's usually Mother Nature will find a way to start trouble in mid-March. Timing is still something we need to watch but even if you have storms later Thursday once you get into a spring mode those storms can last longer and even get strong once again in that 4a-9a period. Something to watch and sure the short term models will start to see this more on Wednesday.

CVG got to 67 and both DAY / CMH 69 today.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2024 6:00 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2024 5:29 pm 12zzzzzzzzzzzzz is a mid month snoozapalooza

I believe I went to that concert one time. Very boring

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2024 6:03 pm Still looks like later Thursday and Friday has a shot of some decent storms. If we have a day on Thursday where temps get into say the mid-70's usually Mother Nature will find a way to start trouble in mid-March. Timing is still something we need to watch but even if you have storms later Thursday once you get into a spring mode those storms can last longer and even get strong once again in that 4a-9a period. Something to watch and sure the short term models will start to see this more on Wednesday.

Dews are currently in the low 30s so it will take some time to moisten up. I still think we are dry tomorrow then get a weakening / scattered coverage on Thurs. Thurs night into Fri morning is our best chance ahead of the front.

Good morning all! 45 this morning IMBY. Another nice day on tap but it will feature a few more clouds. How much cloud cover we see will determine how warm we will get. Going with 68-70 today at CVG. Then a 50/50 chance tomorrow and likely Fri morning is my call. Going with 0.25 to 0.50" range for totals.

I'm still going with a dry weekend in the 50s Sat and Sun. Going with the 30s on Mon of next week with scattered rain and snow showers. No accumulation. Then we will pull out of that cold snap and warm back up. Then another system due in around the 22nd, turns us cold again. Another snow chance after that? Stay tuned...

SPC's Day two outlook has the marginal risk now across our NW counties. I personally feel that severe wx won't be an issue for us as I've been saying due to poor timing of the cold front. We'll see what the SPC does with their next update for Thurs down the road.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Good Morning Les and like usual timing is key. Getting into the spring mode where timing is still important but chances go up as we continue to add more daylight hours which in turn leads to more warming. I do agree .25-.5 looks correct unless you get under a thundershower or storm. One thing for sure is allergies and they have kick in early and hard this year so some rain would be nice to sort of tamper that down

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 7:33 am SPC's Day two outlook has the marginal risk now across our NW counties. I personally feel that severe wx won't be an issue for us as I've been saying due to poor timing of the cold front. We'll see what the SPC does with their next update for Thurs down the road.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

HRRR is more aggressive with our threat. I think we need to watch it closely. Could be some nasty storms around.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 8:06 am Good Morning Les and like usual timing is key. Getting into the spring mode where timing is still important but chances go up as we continue to add more daylight hours which in turn leads to more warming. I do agree .25-.5 looks correct unless you get under a thundershower or storm. One thing for sure is allergies and they have kick in early and hard this year so some rain would be nice to sort of tamper that down

No doubt Tim! My allergies are bad and it's only going to get worse over the next month or so. One reason why I love winter so much.

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 8:23 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 7:33 am SPC's Day two outlook has the marginal risk now across our NW counties. I personally feel that severe wx won't be an issue for us as I've been saying due to poor timing of the cold front. We'll see what the SPC does with their next update for Thurs down the road.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

HRRR is more aggressive with our threat. I think we need to watch it closely. Could be some nasty storms around.

It would be nice to see more model agreement. You know me, I tend to play these set up's conservatively.

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 8:23 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 7:33 am SPC's Day two outlook has the marginal risk now across our NW counties. I personally feel that severe wx won't be an issue for us as I've been saying due to poor timing of the cold front. We'll see what the SPC does with their next update for Thurs down the road.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

HRRR is more aggressive with our threat. I think we need to watch it closely. Could be some nasty storms around.

Will watch the sky and temps on Thursday. Time of the year with plenty of sun temps can move up quickly. Not sure of severe but strong storms look likely. Seems this system has a little less wind energy so this may be some nice storms that can produce hail, heavy rain and brief strong winds. See what some of the other shorter term models show later today since we are more than 36 hours away.

6Z HRRR keeps most of it NW of us with the warm front then on Thurs afternoon and evening it has a nice bowing segment for Dayton and Columbus. For Cincy, it doesn't look very aggressive to me at all. Activity looks scattered and then the last round that comes in overnight into early Fri ahead of the front is also in a weakening phase due to bad timing of the cold front. IMO, NW counties and I-70 Crew do stand a shot to see strong to severe storms. For Cincinnati, I am still not sold. Maybe that changes in future model runs, but for now, this is how I see it. Even the NAM, which is usually the most aggressive model, doesn't have too much pf anything until midday Friday as it's a little slower with the frontal passage. Could see strong storms if the slower solution is correct even for Cincinnati but again, too much uncertainty for me at this time.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 8:38 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 8:23 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 7:33 am SPC's Day two outlook has the marginal risk now across our NW counties. I personally feel that severe wx won't be an issue for us as I've been saying due to poor timing of the cold front. We'll see what the SPC does with their next update for Thurs down the road.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

HRRR is more aggressive with our threat. I think we need to watch it closely. Could be some nasty storms around.

It would be nice to see more model agreement. You know me, I tend to play these set up's conservatively.

Will be curious to see if the 12z 3km NAM lines up with the HRRR on the Thursday threat.

12Z HRRR is a bit better for Cincinnati, but I still think that the worst of the storms will remain to our north. I like a marginal risk for the I-70 folks and if the 12Z HRRR is right, I think you can include the N Cincy burbs too. The NAM is running now.

12Z NAM (both regular and 3KM) show nothing happening at all on Thursday.

Significant TOR ingredients from the 9Z SREF also confirms my thinking. Shows 30% for IND and 15% for the OH I-70 Crew. Cincy is on the edge between nothing and 15%.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 10:19 am Significant TOR ingredients from the 9Z SREF also confirms my thinking. Shows 30% for IND and 15% for the OH I-70 Crew. Cincy is on the edge between nothing and 15%.

Les that is a surprise to me. I thought more north of Indy through northern Illinois and also towards southern Missouri and Arkansas would be the two places with a better shot. My guess is with lows moving through and not spaced that far apart models are trying to see where the best energy will be located. Maybe it will take until Thursday morning to get a better handle on the chances of severe weather but like you I am more of some strong storms yes but will they turn severe and I have no confidence on that occurring.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 10:35 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 10:19 am Significant TOR ingredients from the 9Z SREF also confirms my thinking. Shows 30% for IND and 15% for the OH I-70 Crew. Cincy is on the edge between nothing and 15%.

Les that is a surprise to me. I thought more north of Indy through northern Illinois and also towards southern Missouri and Arkansas would be the two places with a better shot. My guess is with lows moving through and not spaced that far apart models are trying to see where the best energy will be located. Maybe it will take until Thursday morning to get a better handle on the chances of severe weather but like you I am more of some strong storms yes but will they turn severe and I have no confidence on that occurring.

We can adjust our thinking if need be Tim, but I think West and North of Cincy is the best area to be for this event the way things look to me data wise from the computer models. Like you said, tomorrow morning should be more telling. Models are not in agreement either which always adds a degree of difficulty to the situation.

60 now at CVG as of 11am. I hope everyone can get out there and soak up some vitamin D today.