Absolute Vorticity

Another one of those situations that renders Kutchera amounts maps useless

12Z GEFS Mean tracks the low from TN into the Upstate of NC.

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Feb 08, 2024 11:32 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 08, 2024 10:26 am CVG is already up to 51 degrees. Today will be an overachiever temp wise. Tomorrow probably as well.

This was my update from yesterday morning. I debated going 65 for Friday but held with 63. A SSW wind will almost always lead to overachieving temps especially this time of year without huge amounts of deep moisture keeping temps in check.

Forecast looks good Trev! I like the low 60s today and tomorrow. If we can see more sun tomorrow then 65 is a shoe-in.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 08, 2024 11:39 am Another one of those situations that renders Kutchera amounts maps useless

Yep. The snow to liquid ratio will probably be in that 5 to 7:1 range. If we do see any snow it'll be of the concrete variety.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 08, 2024 11:43 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 08, 2024 11:39 am Another one of those situations that renders Kutchera amounts maps useless

Yep. The snow to liquid ratio will probably be in that 5 to 7:1 range. If we do see any snow it'll be of the concrete variety.

Kuchera would be more accurate versus the 10:1 as it factors in varying ratios. Having said that, yes I totally agree. Whatever numbers either snowfall map are cranking out should be taken with a grain of salt. Like I said earlier, if we get the snow it’ll be very wet with crap surface temperatures. Lots of melting.

I will add though: with these type of systems there will be a NARROW corridor that actually stacks it up. Less than the width of say, Hamilton Co. but where it comes down it will come down hard. Where that is? TBD. Super mesoscale so probably not until the event is underway. This is one of those systems that everyone gets up in arms about the NWS not issuing a warning and they issue one when they already have 5” on the ground

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 08, 2024 11:43 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 08, 2024 11:39 am Another one of those situations that renders Kutchera amounts maps useless

Yep. The snow to liquid ratio will probably be in that 5 to 7:1 range. If we do see any snow it'll be of the concrete variety.

Good Afternoon and took a walk this morning and the wind made it a little chiller and not quite as nice compared to Wednesday. Just an hour or two of sunshine this afternoon should boost us close to 60. Friday again with sunshine we have a chance getting to 65 but with no sunshine the limit is probably closer to 60 though we know those southwest winds can warm you up.

Early next week and again still way to early to know this outcome as the models will be sorting this out but I believe we needed a stronger system and even if that pushes the low further north its only going so far north before heading east. I just believe a weaker storm even with a perfect path for us will end up giving us mainly rain or at sometimes a rain/snow mix. If we can get the system stronger and slower that is what we need and that can help in timing as well. We need the strongest part of the system passing through here late Monday say between 4p-11p. These kind of systems in mid-Feb can overachieve because you can get quite the temp difference in a short distance. This is not a clipper but over the next few weeks we need to watch this as we will have several systems that could be a surprise. Does that mean snow and the answer is maybe and will have a better idea once this new pattern sets up. The STJ is not going away and can we get 2 systems to combine and sure but they tend to phase further east but all we need is one with the perfect phase to give us a decent storm.

Mid day temps

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 08, 2024 12:14 pm Mid day temps




IMG_1395.jpeg

What I notice as well is how warm the GOM is and this really should help in getting to a stormier pattern and some severe weather in the south over the next few weeks.

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Feb 08, 2024 12:08 pm I will add though: with these type of systems there will be a NARROW corridor that actually stacks it up. Less than the width of say, Hamilton Co. but where it comes down it will come down hard. Where that is? TBD. Super mesoscale so probably not until the event is underway. This is one of those systems that everyone gets up in arms about the NWS not issuing a warning and they issue one when they already have 5” on the ground

Timing will be if importance. A nighttime or morning event will help us out much more then an afternoon event due to the lack of cold air. Precip rate is also going to be key as it usually is in these types of set up's. Models are still differing on timing and strength of the southern wave.

Great , a LaNina Watch already in the queue . Elnino hangover effects into spring. Don’t like either one.



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 08, 2024 1:09 pm Great , a LaNina Watch already in the queue . Elnino hangover effects into spring. Don’t like either one.



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

Lovely... sounds like a hot summer enroute.

12z Euro was nothing to write home about. The trends today are that we are losing the northern stream energy and thus the phasing aspect of this system. If correct, it's a southern shortwave only and getting some help for snowfall will be even more tough to come by.

The latest Euro is a little weaker but a little slower so some good and some bad. Again we are still at least 24 hours and probably more before we have a solution on this system.

61 at CVG now....

One of the big question over the next several weeks is will a major storm be part of the equation. Of course we need many things to happen and that is we need both cold and warm air to merge which hopefully is a phase of two systems but not always plus have the GOM wide open and usually the 2nd half of February the GOM is wide open for business as the southern part of the USA is starting their spring season. This edges north then and by early May most of the country is in spring if not summer mode except maybe some of the mountains out west and once in awhile the northeast corner of the USA. Have been some wonderful storms in North America this season in terms of snow but mainly in Alaska and eastern Canada. Would love to see one big one in the next several weeks and we just wait and see but the good thing is the pattern looks very very busy and as many systems look to cross the country over the next several weeks plus I believe El Nino is finally weakening and its stayed stronger for a longer period than I thought but again so did the La Nina we just went through as well.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 08, 2024 3:04 pm One of the big question over the next several weeks is will a major storm be part of the equation. Of course we need many things to happen and that is we need both cold and warm air to merge which hopefully is a phase of two systems but not always plus have the GOM wide open and usually the 2nd half of February the GOM is wide open for business as the southern part of the USA is starting their spring season. This edges north then and by early May most of the country is in spring if not summer mode except maybe some of the mountains out west and once in awhile the northeast corner of the USA. Have been some wonderful storms in North America this season in terms of snow but mainly in Alaska and eastern Canada. Would love to see one big one in the next several weeks and we just wait and see but the good thing is the pattern looks very very busy and as many systems look to cross the country over the next several weeks plus I believe El Nino is finally weakening and its stayed stronger for a longer period than I thought but again so did the La Nina we just went through as well.

The pattern is definitely going to get active. Snow, a cold rain or severe wx... we just don't yet know what form it will take. I do think it is mainly a cold rain and / or snow with the next few systems. I still think a clipper or two is possible behind the early in the week next week's storm. Maybe we can get something to cover the ground in the next week or two if we can get lucky. I am thinking around the 20th or Pres Day for a bigger storm potential too. The SOI has really tanked so IMO that is a signal for a big storm. That does not mean for us nor does it mean snow either of course.

EDIT: Link to SOI Data:

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

Late afternoon temps

NEW Storm Thread created for early next week system:

viewtopic.php?p=41345#p41345

62 here and at CVG today. 65 or bust tomorrow?

Looking at EPS , the polar jet is so weak in the mid/ long range , reminds me of the nowhere to be found SEridge

The record high for tomorrow at CVG is 67 set back in 2001. Over / under?

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 08, 2024 6:51 pm The record high for tomorrow at CVG is 67 set back in 2001. Over / under?

Love to go over but my guess just enough clouds to keep us at 65 or below

Same Tim. 65 is a good number.

Here is something you don't see much and that is a tornado warning in southern Wisconsin in early February