Absolute Vorticity

Wow! You went all in Trev! Soooo GFS-like!

I do not think ILN will wait until late afternoon to upgrade the rest of the area to a winter weather advisory. At least they shouldn't if they are wanting to inform the public in a timely manner. Only a few hours remaining until this event begins.

dce wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 11:38 am I do not think ILN will wait until late afternoon to upgrade the rest of the area to a winter weather advisory. At least they shouldn't if they are wanting to inform the public in a timely manner. Only a few hours remaining until this event begins.

CVG area we are hitting low-end warning criteria, so this might get interesting.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 11:37 am Wow! You went all in Trev! Soooo GFS-like!

The forecast was weighted toward the GFS and to some extent the Euro.

I am very interested to see what the Euro does in a little while. The 6Z run was much better giving most folks 0.20-0.30" of QPF.

I got a flight leaving CVG at 7:50am. Could be a tough drive from Maineville....

I will let Bgoney or someone else post GEFS but looks like it increased as well for 12Z suite.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 11:12 am

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 11:03 am I'll be nowcasting for sure, with the radar and the short term models come this evening to see if an overachiever is actually in the works. Looks to be a tired day at work tomorrow! lol
At least it's Friday tomorrow!

If the trends today are correct.... it maybe a tough drive into the office for me tomorrow.

I hear ya Les, luckily, we're still on the hybrid schedule here and I can WFH tomorrow.

I was going to post yesterday that I had a feeling that the overnight and today's models were going to start to eat away at that dry slot and fill in some, but not at the extent for what they're showing now!

Snowing pretty good out here in New Point IN. Got a slight dusting now.

12z GFS ensemble...

Trentonwx06 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 11:41 am I will let Bgoney or someone else post GEFS but looks like it increased as well for 12Z suite.

Yeah... lowest QPF is in SE IN which has been the trend today, highest in our SE counties. It fits what the other models are showing attm. Check the 12Z UKMET on Pivotal when you get a chance please. It should be out. Per the freebie maps, I am thinking it is showing around 0.30" QPF for the region.

Finally back online. When Altafiber messes up its almost impossible to get it corrected. Will look over things in the next few hours and see what is happening weather wise.

Josh351m wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 11:53 am Snowing pretty good out here in New Point IN. Got a slight dusting now.

Nice! Glad to see it's not all virga on radar. Dew Point at CVG is still pretty low (7 degrees, temp of 28) so it'll take a while for the column to saturate in some areas.

GEFs keeps the trend going for cvgland zone with an increase in qpf from its previous runs. North of there about the same

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 12:11 pm Finally back online. When Altafiber messes up its almost impossible to get it corrected. Will look over things in the next few hours and see what is happening weather wise.

Been there, done that Tim! Glad you are back my friend... perfect timing!

12Z Ukie

Thanks Jamie... that is also inline with other models since the map is at a 10:1 ratio and we know the ratio will be higher then that, esp Fri morning when temps fall.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 11:37 am Wow! You went all in Trev! Soooo GFS-like!

I was about to say... he he pushed all of those chips to the center!

Nice little area of snow (mainly aloft) moving into the area as we speak. Most of it is virga due to the dry air mass in the lower levels. I am seeing some weak 700 MB frontogenic forcing over the area though as well as continued Gulf moisture streaming in. I checked PWATS and those slowly are increasing from the SW, which is good.

Anyone besides Josh, seeing any flakes making it to the ground? Nothing here in Mason as of yet.

rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 12:24 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 11:37 am Wow! You went all in Trev! Soooo GFS-like!

I was about to he he pushed all of those chips to the center!

How's it going Byron? I haven't seen you post in a while.

Saw a couple flakes here in AV. Heavier returns moving this way now.

Light snow in Kettering. Hoping for a snow day tomorrow…

It's been snowing lightly in Richmond, Indiana for about an hour now.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 11:12 am

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 11:03 am I'll be nowcasting for sure, with the radar and the short term models come this evening to see if an overachiever is actually in the works. Looks to be a tired day at work tomorrow! lol
At least it's Friday tomorrow!

If the trends today are correct.... it maybe a tough drive into the office for me tomorrow.

you should take a pto day tomorrow

Apologies if this has been covered - what is the thought on timing? What’s your idea/best guess on a start time?