Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 4:05 pm Les hopefully so and just reading some of the NWS to the south and most have boosted snowfall totals for the next few days That is what I thought would happen but again I was too far north with the heavier snow. No doubt once we get into milder air in about 10 days models will be a little too early with the warming at the ground but not above and that is where you start to watch for a system that can bring us frz/rain and snow. Usually a decent snow with bigger changes to the pattern and of course this past week 2 storms but hopefully a big storm comes around the 21-23rd period

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 4:38 pm Going to see road closures in southern Ky and much of Tn. This kind of cold and rather heavy snow will cause all kinds of problems. My guess many schools in those areas will not be happening all week as they do not have the equipment to handle this kind of storm. You can see as these pieces of energy are moving east they are having a hard time crossing the mountains and no strong system on the east coast to transfer energy. The second piece of energy and maybe 3rd as these get blurry is the strongest of the bunch and this does bring snow further north and west. How far north is still the question but it does not take much to get a light accumulation even as far north as Indy. We are so close to getting a nice snow

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 4:17 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 4:05 pm Les hopefully so and just reading some of the NWS to the south and most have boosted snowfall totals for the next few days That is what I thought would happen but again I was too far north with the heavier snow. No doubt once we get into milder air in about 10 days models will be a little too early with the warming at the ground but not above and that is where you start to watch for a system that can bring us frz/rain and snow. Usually a decent snow with bigger changes to the pattern and of course this past week 2 storms but hopefully a big storm comes around the 21-23rd period

I've been watching the return flow from the Gulf behind the arctic high. I could see us starting as ice / mix but quickly turning over to rain. WAA looks very strong. Should see temps 45 to 50 in my opinion for a few days before the cold returns.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 5:52 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 4:17 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 4:05 pm Les hopefully so and just reading some of the NWS to the south and most have boosted snowfall totals for the next few days That is what I thought would happen but again I was too far north with the heavier snow. No doubt once we get into milder air in about 10 days models will be a little too early with the warming at the ground but not above and that is where you start to watch for a system that can bring us frz/rain and snow. Usually a decent snow with bigger changes to the pattern and of course this past week 2 storms but hopefully a big storm comes around the 21-23rd period

I've been watching the return flow from the Gulf behind the arctic high. I could see us starting as ice / mix but quickly turning over to rain. WAA looks very strong. Should see temps 45 to 50 in my opinion for a few days before the cold returns.

No doubt the WAA looks to be strong but snow cover even to our south in mid-January will take time to melt. So yes up above no doubt warm air but at the surface it takes time. So I believe the changeover will take longer and this no doubt can bring an ice event. With the WAA stronger this imo gives us a better shot of ice because moisture will return quickly before we can warm up the ground

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 7:20 pm Western KY sites are reporting light snow as well as Western and middle TN. Anything north of there on radar is virga attm.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 7:31 pm Snowing in Owensboro as well so models still not handling the northward push of snow. Of course only so far north and west but the early returns are noticed