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Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 8:56 am
by tron777
After La Bomba... the next system looks to come in towards the end of next week / next weekend. OP GFS wants to bring in another La Bomba part 2. Another blizzard to our West. Same kind of deal really as to what we'll see on Tues of next week. The 0Z CMC is much further SE with the ow track and brings us a snow storm. The OP Euro is more like the GFS.
From an Ensemble standpoint, which is what we should be using this far out anyway... the GEFS is further SE of the OP tracking the low thru our SE counties. The EPS is in agreement. We shall see... plenty of time to monitor this system. The dates on it would be Jan 12-13th.
The active pattern continues even beyond this time period but the details on any individual storm tracks will be impossible to pin down at this time. Cold air invading the country and an active STJ is the take away though.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 10:52 am
by winterstormjoe
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 8:56 am
After La Bomba... the next system looks to come in towards the end of next week / next weekend. OP GFS wants to bring in another La Bomba part 2. Another blizzard to our West. Same kind of deal really as to what we'll see on Tues of next week. The 0Z CMC is much further SE with the ow track and brings us a snow storm. The OP Euro is more like the GFS.
From an Ensemble standpoint, which is what we should be using this far out anyway... the GEFS is further SE of the OP tracking the low thru our SE counties. The EPS is in agreement. We shall see... plenty of time to monitor this system. The dates on it would be Jan 12-13th.
The active pattern continues even beyond this time period but the details on any individual storm tracks will be impossible to pin down at this time. Cold air invading the country and an active STJ is the take away though.
Les, I'll repeat this from the other thread, "Feeling optimistic after mid month is all I can say"
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 11:43 am
by tron777
winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 10:52 am
Les, I'll repeat this from the other thread, "Feeling optimistic after mid month is all I can say"
I do too Joe. The first legit chance is the 12-13th. 12Z GFS is a major blizzard for folks NW of I-71. It is so close for the rest of us. Very, very close! Another SE bump and we're in! The Canadian today which was a snow storm for us on the 0Z run, went back NW again. Typical model wind shield wiper effect this far out.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 11:45 am
by tron777
Nice follow up storm on the GFS for the 15-16th as well. We are going to be busy on here over the next several weeks. I foresee more thread worthy events upcoming.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 12:02 pm
by tron777
12Z GEFS on the 12-13th looks nice! On the ensemble mean... the low tracks from the Gulf into S Alabama then into Eastern Ohio strengthening as it does so. This is certainly one to watch in my opinion folks.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 12:13 pm
by mikeyp
Ok, now I’m in the right thread hahaha!
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 12:19 pm
by mikeyp
Next weekend system is definitely going to be a huge, huge snowmaker for someone here or north west of here
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 12:26 pm
by tron777
mikeyp wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 12:19 pm
Next weekend system is definitely going to be a huge, huge snowmaker for someone here or north west of here
It'll depend on the -NAO blocking and if we get the PNA to go positive with a West Coast ridge to force the trough more eastward. Those are the two key factors to watch in my mind for the 12th-13th.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 12:29 pm
by tron777
You can clearly see the difference out West. Below is the OP GFS valid for Friday morning on the 12th. The second image is the GEFS. Note the obvious difference in the PNA ridging. OP GFS is more flat versus the more stout GEFS, which is what we are looking for.
OP GFS.png
GEFS.png
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 1:52 pm
by tron777
The GFS kept the lead wave on the 11th much further to the north where on this run of the Euro (new 12Z) it is further south and we actually get some light snow from it. This should bring in a nice batch of cold air to allow for a further SE track for the 12-13th system. So something to watch is the track of the lead wave on the 11th which should lay down the foundation for the strong low on the 12-13th. Now on this run, it is much weaker and a bit too far SE so I would expect the Euro to correct back north in future runs. I think one of the big keys to this system, is how much of a dig do we get with the lead wave on the 11th.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 2:14 pm
by tron777
The CMC and Euro at Day 10 want to release the arctic hounds! 1060-1070 MB high is entering the picture. EGADS!
Would love to get a snow pack down prior to that level of cold air coming in. It'll help protect plants / lawns!
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 5:20 pm
by MVWxObserver
CVG reached 41 and both DAY / CMH 37 today.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 07, 2024 7:16 am
by tpweather
Good Morning and buckle up over the next 2-3 weeks as winter settles in. Getting a decent snow pack to the north and west is a great sign of things to come. Tons of cold just waiting to enter the lower 48 and just need a path to bring it down and these systems over the next week should serve us well.
How much snow and how cold is not known yet but usually in January when you get these cold outbreaks models tend to be to warm as cold usually whens the battle.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 07, 2024 8:52 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 07, 2024 7:16 am
Good Morning and buckle up over the next 2-3 weeks as winter settles in. Getting a decent snow pack to the north and west is a great sign of things to come. Tons of cold just waiting to enter the lower 48 and just need a path to bring it down and these systems over the next week should serve us well.
How much snow and how cold is not known yet but usually in January when you get these cold outbreaks models tend to be to warm as cold usually whens the battle.
We will be colder then the models if we can obtain a snow pack. If you want brutally cold air, then we need the 12-13th system to be a hit. More cold and chances to come even beyond that system too. The pattern is loaded! The STJ will keep pumping out the systems and they will continue to track along the S edge of the arctic airmass.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 07, 2024 9:46 am
by Trevor
I would argue that this is one of the most potential-laden, busiest patterns we have had in the region in quite a few winters.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 07, 2024 2:08 pm
by dce
We are on the warm side of every storm on today's 12z Euro until we get to about day 9. Still much to be figured out from a modeling standpoint. I hope we don't continue this Indiana/ Illinois storm track too much longer. Would hate to see a good pattern not bearing any fruit.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 07, 2024 4:42 pm
by MVWxObserver
Was great to see the Bengals get a commanding win over the postseason Browns for the last game of the season in the 101th Ohio Cup matchup!
Now for a strong and healthy Cincy defensive line e.g. next season and hopefully a postseason in 2025!
Currently at the freezing mark here in G'ville and progged for around 27 on Mon morning.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 07, 2024 5:56 pm
by mikeyp
18zgfs gave us lots of love after this first storm
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 07, 2024 6:33 pm
by MVWxObserver
CVG / CMH reached 37 and DAY 35 today.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 07, 2024 8:17 pm
by Trevor
Two week snowfall via the 18z GFS. A little mode porn for all you snow weenies!
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 07, 2024 10:10 pm
by mikeyp
Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Jan 07, 2024 8:17 pm
Two week snowfall via the 18z GFS. A little mode porn for all you snow weenies!
Can only hope that comes true! What great run for the area!
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2024 4:34 am
by tron777
After the 12-13th system, the GFS continues to give us love with future systems. Nice system for MLK Day and a nice clipper after that showing up. We have true arctic air to work with after the end of the week storm. That has been lacking.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2024 6:00 am
by tron777
Here's the 6Z GFS at CVG for MLK! :0
Code: Select all
MON 12Z 15-JAN -9.3 -10.0 1027 92 95 0.05 548 528
MON 18Z 15-JAN -6.1 -7.2 1019 93 95 0.22 547 532
TUE 00Z 16-JAN -6.9 -8.8 1018 96 96 0.47 545 531
TUE 06Z 16-JAN -13.3 -10.9 1021 95 43 0.03 542 527
Euro is a little slower, the night of the 15th into the 16th, much weaker and South.
Code: Select all
TUE 06Z 16-JAN -7.6 -10.9 1024 62 100 0.04 547 529
TUE 12Z 16-JAN -8.6 -11.7 1020 75 99 0.08 541 526
TUE 18Z 16-JAN -5.8 -12.3 1015 59 101 0.01 536 524
WED 00Z 17-JAN -8.5 -13.6 1015 71 100 0.02 529 517
WED 06Z 17-JAN -13.4 -14.3 1017 72 62 0.01 527 514
CMC has a more complex solution but the end result is probably a blend of the two. This one might be our next thread starter if the GFS solution gains more traction.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2024 6:21 am
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 4:34 am
After the 12-13th system, the GFS continues to give us love with future systems. Nice system for MLK Day and a nice clipper after that showing up. We have true arctic air to work with after the end of the week storm. That has been lacking.
Good Morning Les and the key word of the day is Arctic. Once that invades our area then chances for an all snow event goes way up.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2024 6:54 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 6:21 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 4:34 am
After the 12-13th system, the GFS continues to give us love with future systems. Nice system for MLK Day and a nice clipper after that showing up. We have true arctic air to work with after the end of the week storm. That has been lacking.
Good Morning Les and the key word of the day is Arctic. Once that invades our area then chances for an all snow event goes way up.
Good morning Tim. Exactly. The cold air has been lacking. Beyond the Fri / Sat event that should no longer be the case so the next system which is MLK or the 16th... whatever it ends up being, should have a better chance at delivering snow to our area.