November 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

12Z GFS shows a band of rain this coming Friday with a cold front but not much precip should be expected with it and thus no cold air to work with. Then for Tues of Thanksgiving Week, on today's run, no phasing with the northern stream. We get the southern stream system and it's a big rain maker since there is no phasing with the northern stream. Timing, timing, timing as always folks! For snow lovers, we must get that phase or it'll mainly be rain. This solution will continue to morph and change for the next week easily.

[tron777]

12Z Euro agrees with the above.

[tron777]

Good morning all! A nice day on tap with normal temps. We are still quiet until Friday when the first front moves thru with a band of light rain. Then by Tues of next week, we look to see a potentially stronger storm system with rain and t-storms. Do we see any system after that for more rain and / or snow? Models diverge with the forecast for the week of Thanksgiving so stay tuned!

[young pup]

Thankful for the rain at the end of October. Thankful for the dry weather so far in November. It makes leaf work much easier, but it does make it dusty at times. Hoping to be able to get more leaves off the properties before they get to wet.

[tron777]

I trimmed trees and mulched leaves today. One or two more grindings as the oak leaves fall and that should wrap up my season. We have great weather to get things done until Friday then it's game over IMO after that with the more active pattern kicking in.

[tron777]

Good morning all! As advertised a mainly quiet 7 days ahead minus a cold front passing thru on Friday bringing some rain showers. Highs mainly in the 60s thru Thurs then the 50s with sunshine after frontal passage on Friday. Lows in the 30s accept for Thurs night in the 40s ahead of the front.

For Thanksgiving week, model solutions will continue to change since we are still a ways out. For now, I would expect rain and a few t-storms for Tues of next week. Uncertainty exists after that. Are we dry for Wed, and Thanksgiving with another system due in over the Holiday weekend or do we see a quick follow up system for the Thanksgiving or Black Friday period? We should be able to iron out Thanksgiving week as this week goes on.

[tron777]

31 officially at CVG this morning. Got a nice frost IMBY.

[Bgoney]

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[tron777]

Wow! Sure hope it weakens in December as last week's guidance was suggesting. A busy work day today so I am just checking the 12Z suite now. Speaking of cold... much colder looking in the extended range now on most of the global models. GEFS looks colder too then we warm up the last day or two of the month as the pattern reverts back to -PNA. EPS def. colder even at the end of the run.

[tron777]

66 here today, CVG hit 65. Models continue to flip and flop for next week's forecast.

[tron777]

Good morning folks! 35 officially at CVG this morning with a light frost IMBY and 34 for a low. A touch cooler today with highs in the 50s but with plenty of sunshine. A beautiful Wed and Thurs upcoming with highs in the mid 60s, maybe U60s for Thurs. We are still expecting a band of rain showers on Friday with the passage of a cold front. This should lead to a colder weekend but dry with some sunshine as well. Lows should be in the U20s to L30s across the area with highs in the 45 to 50 degree range.

Uncertainty for next week still looms large on the guidance. OP GFS shows an unphased system with the southern piece going down to the south in Mexico and we just get brushed by a few rain showers on Tues followed by cold and dry conditions for Wed and T-giving. By Black Friday, the southern energy rolls out for a nice rain maker. The CMC has more interaction between the two systems for a nice rain maker Mon night thru Tues night. The Euro is similar to the CMC thru most of the run.

We don't yet know how Mon night and Tues will play out nor do we know if we will see another system on Black Fri into next Sat. I continue to urge all to stay tuned for future updates.

[Bgoney]

It’s a watering week at work for the new plantings and evergreens. Finding little to no moisture when planting here on the east side. Do not count on Mother Nature!

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[tron777]

Some pretty telling maps! MBY could use another 2 or 3" while those of you in OH could use 3-6". Some Indy posters need 6-9" to get out of the drought. As usual in weather, it is all about location but the stats aren't good for all AV posters. I still believe we get some help in the coming weeks and months with the more active pattern kicking in. Still though, the plants are suffering as Bgoney keeps mentioning and it's true. I've been noticing a lot of needle drop off on my evergreens thanks to the dryness and the leaf drop started earlier then usual in my backyard again due to the dryness. Hopefully things will make it over the winter, but if we see severe cold or a big ice storm this winter then all bets are off.

[tron777]

DT posted another This Week in Weather video a couple of days ago:

[Bgoney]

Some pretty telling maps! MBY could use another 2 or 3" while those of you in OH could use 3-6". Some Indy posters need 6-9" to get out of the drought. As usual in weather, it is all about location but the stats aren't good for all AV posters. I still believe we get some help in the coming weeks and months with the more active pattern kicking in. Still though, the plants are suffering as Bgoney keeps mentioning and it's true. I've been noticing a lot of needle drop off on my evergreens thanks to the dryness and the leaf drop started earlier then usual in my backyard again due to the dryness. Hopefully things will make it over the winter, but if we see severe cold or a big ice storm this winter then all bets are off.

Unfortunately the flip in the models the last couple of days imo is a dryer pattern than what was advertised a few days ago. Colder nw flow only means less moisture from the GOM. Yes we get some rains but not much in the way of soaking or drought relief

[tron777]

Some pretty telling maps! MBY could use another 2 or 3" while those of you in OH could use 3-6". Some Indy posters need 6-9" to get out of the drought. As usual in weather, it is all about location but the stats aren't good for all AV posters. I still believe we get some help in the coming weeks and months with the more active pattern kicking in. Still though, the plants are suffering as Bgoney keeps mentioning and it's true. I've been noticing a lot of needle drop off on my evergreens thanks to the dryness and the leaf drop started earlier then usual in my backyard again due to the dryness. Hopefully things will make it over the winter, but if we see severe cold or a big ice storm this winter then all bets are off.

Unfortunately the flip in the models the last couple of days imo is a dryer pattern than what was advertised a few days ago. Colder nw flow only means less moisture from the GOM. Yes we get some rains but not much in the way of soaking or drought relief

I agree. In addition, we're not seeing a full phase either. Some decent rains if the foreign models pan out but not several inches which would happen with t-storm action if we were to see a fully phased storm which was advertised previously. Strange seeing the polar jet still dominate (More of a La Nina look vs El Nino). There we go again with this El Nino currently not behaving as you would expect. If this continues, you will see a lot of failed seasonal outlooks on Wxtwitter (Or X nowadays)

[tron777]

[Bgoney]

I read that first page of DTs header. If he thinks this Elnino is going to reach an ONI of +2 he’s barking up the wrong tree

[tron777]

I read that first page of DTs header. If he thinks this Elnino is going to reach an ONI of +2 he’s barking up the wrong tree

I've been hearing a lot of talk about the Nino strengthening once again esp in December then finally weakening for good in January. I've always thought that maybe the event has peaked or close to peaking anyway right now. But yeah, there is no way the ONI gets to +2 or above.

[Bgoney]

I read that first page of DTs header. If he thinks this Elnino is going to reach an ONI of +2 he’s barking up the wrong tree

I've been hearing a lot of talk about the Nino strengthening once again esp in December then finally weakening for good in January. I've always thought that maybe the event has peaked or close to peaking anyway right now. But yeah, there is no way the ONI gets to +2 or above.

In agreement, with the recent WWB it should have a higher reading in the next couple tri-monthly’s but below +2.0 . With the trades already following the tail of the WWB , it’ll keep it from getting into the 2 range

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[tron777]

I think the forecast looks good from now thru the weekend. The only weather issue is rain showers on Friday but otherwise that is really about it. Uncertainly still looms for next week's forecast though and today's 12Z GFS shows a touch more interaction for next Tuesday's system. I am going to forecast 95% of it will be rain with perhaps the event ending as a few flakes. The best chance for a few flakes at the end will be for the i-70 Crew. Then we get cold NW flow for Wed and Thanksgiving behind that frontal system. The model then shears out the energy for what could be some kind of a storm system for the Holiday Weekend. Then... well just don't look at the rest of the run. You will only be disappointed when it doesn't happen.

12Z CMC is showing a quicker solution with rain coming in Mon night and Tues of next week then the low deepens significantly over the Great Lakes with wind and snow showers lingering into Wed morning. A much colder solution here with a much more phased / wrapped up storm system. I would assume that this is likely overdone. Then we could get a wintry type system for the Holiday weekend if the run went out a little further.

[tron777]

I read that first page of DTs header. If he thinks this Elnino is going to reach an ONI of +2 he’s barking up the wrong tree

I've been hearing a lot of talk about the Nino strengthening once again esp in December then finally weakening for good in January. I've always thought that maybe the event has peaked or close to peaking anyway right now. But yeah, there is no way the ONI gets to +2 or above.

In agreement, with the recent WWB it should have a higher reading in the next couple tri-monthly’s but below +2.0 . With the trades already following the tail of the WWB , it’ll keep it from getting into the 2 range


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The WWB's in reality have been not as strong as what the GFS continues to show either. I also think the +IOD will be peaking soon as well.

[tron777]

Over half of the GEFS members for the Tues of next week system show rain and / or rain ending as flakes. This is an uptick in member agreement since the last run when more members showed nothing (meaning a non phased solution).

[Trevor]

There’s your model porn @Les

[winterstormjoe]

There’s your model porn @Les

It's way too early for these models to be messing with our minds. Lol