El Nino, The 2023-2024 Winter, and You!

[tron777]

Last 30 days of trends for SSTs. Can we say Elnino has peaked? We can say the -PDO is hanging tough. We can say the IOD continues its weakening, not only by the warming temps but the fact the MJO survived the Indian Ocean while moving eastward



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I'd like to see the El Nino weaken faster. I would think that could help with slowing the Pacific Jet down to allow for the blocking to occur (-EPO) and actually stay for a while.

I’m kind of thinking the darn -PDO has been the problem with the STJ all this fall keeping it more south and or weak over the mid section of the country (see drought monitor) before it energizes off the East coast , at the same time influencing the PAC jet strength. Just a thought, I have no idea if this a meteorological thing




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I also wonder if the extreme warmth around Japan is causing an issue also. Might be with the MJO as the West Pacific warm pool is way warmer then it otherwise should be. I wish I was smarter to decipher some of these things.

[Trevor]

Unpinning since we are in Met Winter. Continue all discussion in the monthly threads.

[tpweather]

The current El Nino and is it acting like a normal El Nino. There are many items that each El Nino seem to have and that is cooler and wetter along the southern states and drier just north of that area along with above normal temps in the northern plains. So far that seems to fit the narrative. The one item that is different and that is the STJ and how it is aligned. Many El Nino's you see the STJ bringing in moisture from the pacific into southern California and then heads east to the Carolina coast. That is not happening as the STJ is further south into Mexico and coming up through the gulf states and then to the Atlantic Coast. This is another reason no really big storms are happening. With the STJ in the west this is not going to produce a stronger ridge up the west coast into western Canada and eastern Alaska. The ridging will happen in the central part of the USA instead and this will bring milder air into a good part of the USA. MJO in the warmer phases 3-6 over the next 2 weeks not give us many chances if any for winter like weather. If the forecast for the MJO is correct then by the 20th or so of December I would expect a bigger storm to usher in the pattern change but if the MJO stalls or moves to the COD then we will need to revisit the timing of the pattern change.