Absolute Vorticity

MD issued for parts of the area - A t-storm watch is unlikely to be issued.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1962.html

Booming thunder now even though those cells are still a ways off to the West. So far, they are maintaining so some of us should get some rain this morning. We have some wind shear in place and weak CAPE right now so I don't see why they shouldn't hold together for a while longer. If correct, this should IMO limit the severe threat for us this evening. Folks near and N of I-70 are going to have a better shot at stronger storms as well as better coverage since the atmosphere there will not be worked over as ours will be down to the south.

Unfortunately, it is weakening as it heads our way. Some light to mod rain possible for a few areas. I am seeing some sprinkles with thunder.

Latest thinking from the boys, which backs up my earlier post / thinking as well.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Convection developed over southern Indiana early this morning in
response to WAA and favorable theta-e advection. These storms
will continue to move ESE across se Indiana/northern KY/sw Ohio
and may produce gusty winds and small hail with a general
weakening trend thru late morning.

This convection and associated cloud cover should act to delay
and possibly subdue the potential for widespread strong/severe
storm redevelopment later in the afternoon.

Due to this mornings convection expect re-development delayed
and confined more to near the sfc frontal boundary across ILN/s
northern counties in the mid to late afternoon time frame. This
is where the best overlap of instby and deep layer shear will
exist. As these storms drop ESE across ILN/s FA thru the late
afternoon into the evening, the potential will exist for a
localized hail and strong/damaging wind threat. A heavy rain
threat will also exist which could lead to localized flooding,
should storms train over the same area.

Have made slight adjustment bumping up pops higher to account
for this mornings convection. Expect highs in the lower and
middle 80s.

UGH.... The Dome won the battle, just a ground wetter here. CVG measured 0.02". 0.04" fell at the Boone Co mesonet site. Will go with 0.01" here. It looks like I'll be watering my plants today so they will make it until Monday's (I hope) rainfall.

Lol , sun shining here

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 11:42 am UGH.... The Dome won the battle, just a ground wetter here. CVG measured 0.02". 0.04" fell at the Boone Co mesonet site. Will go with 0.01" here. It looks like I'll be watering my plants today so they will make it until Monday's (I hope) rainfall.

Double whammy - did not even get a drop here from the first batch, however the debris clouds will stabilize it long enough to weaken (or completely dissipate) round 2 once it gets here later.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 12:13 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 11:42 am UGH.... The Dome won the battle, just a ground wetter here. CVG measured 0.02". 0.04" fell at the Boone Co mesonet site. Will go with 0.01" here. It looks like I'll be watering my plants today so they will make it until Monday's (I hope) rainfall.

Double whammy - did not even get a drop here from the first batch, however the debris clouds will stabilize it long enough to weaken (or completely dissipate) round 2 once it gets here later.

Bingo!

Latest HRRR has scattered convection N of I-70 later this afternoon. A broken line of storms sinks to the south along with a cold front by late in the evening. I just don't think our chances, at least down Cincy way, are going to be very high. I would love to be wrong, but we've seen this same old song and dance how many times this summer?

The data still looks good for more widespread rainfall early Monday morning and during the day as well for most posters and locations. I still like what I see there and the data has been very consistent too with the idea. Hopefully that pans out since we will have a period of dry weather for a while as a taste of September moves in by Tuesday of next week.

I'm so sorry to bug you guys....however, any opinions would be greatly appreciated
Thinking about heading to Kings Island this evening (Mason, OH) and wondering about storm likelihood.
Naturally, radar shows storms in the 7pm range, but here in Hamilton county I've seen those fall apart time and time again.
I understand Mother Nature does what she does, haha, just looking for professional opinions
Thanks to anyone who can chime in!

snwyowl wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 1:16 pm I'm so sorry to bug you guys....however, any opinions would be greatly appreciated
Thinking about heading to Kings Island this evening (Mason, OH) and wondering about storm likelihood.
Naturally, radar shows storms in the 7pm range, but here in Hamilton county I've seen those fall apart time and time again.
I understand Mother Nature does what she does, haha, just looking for professional opinions
Thanks to anyone who can chime in!

I would go and be ready to take shelter should a storm come thru. I believe that folks along and N of I-70 have the greatest chance. The front will sink south this evening. I cannot rule out a storm for all locations but the further south one goes, the lesser the chance is basically what I am getting at. If you go, drink a lot of liquids as it is nasty out there humidity wise. I just came in from fertilizing my plants and it looks like I took a shower (covered in sweat)

Thank you!

snwyowl wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 1:49 pmThank you!

No problem! You can see the broken line of storms already forming over North Central IN into NW Ohio. That is the front that will sink south as time goes on.

Dewpoint is up to 75 here and at CVG, that explains the awful humidity outside. Low 80s at this hour across my hood and CVG. We'll keep an eye on that broken line of storms as it heads ESE with the front as the rest of the day unfolds and into the evening hours.

A tornado watch is out for a small portion of our forum coverage area. Mainly folks in and around Columbus and N of I-70 are at risk.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 2:07 pm Dewpoint is up to 75 here and at CVG, that explains the awful humidity outside. Low 80s at this hour across my hood and CVG. We'll keep an eye on that broken line of storms as it heads ESE with the front as the rest of the day unfolds and into the evening hours.

Forecast going according to plan imo. Timing of next chance for cvgland again will be unfavorable near dark. Our northern counties, Dayton ,SE Indiana of course with slightly better timing so a bit more coverage for them . Not expecting much if anything by the time it gets out this way

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 3:36 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 2:07 pm Dewpoint is up to 75 here and at CVG, that explains the awful humidity outside. Low 80s at this hour across my hood and CVG. We'll keep an eye on that broken line of storms as it heads ESE with the front as the rest of the day unfolds and into the evening hours.

Forecast going according to plan imo. Timing of next chance for cvgland again will be unfavorable near dark. Our northern counties, Dayton ,SE Indiana of course with slightly better timing so a bit more coverage for them . Not expecting much if anything by the time it gets out this way

I completely agree. You have to leave in a small POP to cover your ass so to speak but the best forcing, instability, and shear are to our north as we've said. The timing looks to be after 9pm for us and as you said, that is after sunset so the same old problem we have faced for most of the summer. Bad timing.

88 as of 4pm at CVG... contest day or will we fall short?

No clue why SPC has maintained the slight risk for the Cincy area.

Trevor wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 4:43 pm No clue why SPC has maintained the slight risk for the Cincy area.

Who knows Trev. They have been struggling a lot this year. The current forecaster is Leitman. Must be a new guy. You would have thought it was Broyles!

Even the boys are on our side LOL

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Northwest flow aloft with shortwave energy dropping thru the
Great Lakes tonight. Associated surface cold front which has
slipped into northwest Ohio to drop south into ILN/s FA this
evening and wash out overnight. Moderate instability has
developed along and ahead of this front with MLCAPE values
around 2000 J/KG. Bulk shear of 40-45 KTS across our northern
counties will result in potential for organized storms early.
Convection has developed in this region of moisture convergence
associated with the front. The potential for strong to damaging
winds will continue across portions of west central Ohio and
central Ohio with DCAPE values of 1000-1300 J/KG ahead of this
front. The favorable shear shifts east and as the storms shift
south of I-70 they encounter a less favorable environment this
evening and therefore the threat for severe weather diminishes.

Convective activity will shift south and continue to weaken by
late evening. With some clearing to work in from the north
overnight and winds becoming light, the setup for fog
development looks to become favorable. Have a mention of fog
across all but the far north overnight. The potential for some
locations to develop dense fog will exist - especially across
the south late tonight.

Lows tonight to range from near 60 north to the upper 60s south.

Good Afternoon and made it to Wisconsin. Beautiful with clouds and sun along with a nice breeze. Feels like early fall. Getting rid of the humidity is so key. Left this morning and ran into some thunder and lightning near Indy with some rainfall but that lasted maybe 30 minutes.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 4:53 pm Good Afternoon and made it to Wisconsin. Beautiful with clouds and sun along with a nice breeze. Feels like early fall. Getting rid of the humidity is so key. Left this morning and ran into some thunder and lightning near Indy with some rainfall but that lasted maybe 30 minutes.

I'm jealous Tim! I checked the forecast for your area up there and you've got a fall like day coming up on Tues. Highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 40s! You won't see the 80s until Thurs or Fri of next week.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 4:57 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 4:53 pm Good Afternoon and made it to Wisconsin. Beautiful with clouds and sun along with a nice breeze. Feels like early fall. Getting rid of the humidity is so key. Left this morning and ran into some thunder and lightning near Indy with some rainfall but that lasted maybe 30 minutes.

I'm jealous Tim! I checked the forecast for your area up there and you've got a fall like day coming up on Tues. Highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 40s! You won't see the 80s until Thurs or Fri of next week.

Les it is so nice up here and I could spend every summer and winter here lol. Heading to Ithaca,Ny on Wednesday so it looks nice there as well. Will head back home on Friday and will no be happy with the humidity. Seems the Euro model is just not handling the precip while the gfs is out to lunch and no way a model can be that bad

CVG got 89'ed today so we finally got a contest day! I fell short only hitting 88 here.