Absolute Vorticity

Thanks everyone for the bday wishes. Another day older but not sure about the wiser part. Got exactly 0.03 inches of rain at my house and maybe 5 miles down the road where I played golf well over 1 inch and my clothes are still damp from all the rain.Hopefully Saturday brings a more widespread rainfall which seldom happens in the summer. Sure there will be a cutoff somewhere but chances a little higher than normal for a more widespread rain. If the clouds and rain come during the morning the severe threat will also be lower. Still not seeing an long period of heat heading this way. Sure maybe a day or two but nothing long lasting at this point. Even with the coolest summers we usually get a period or two of some hot weather.

86 / 65 as of 1pm at CVG. Watching for a possible contest day mainly.

12Z GFS has the timing from late morning / midday tomorrow for the rain then more scattered late afternoon and evening. The +PNA pattern by and large remains thru the end of July on this run.

Happy birthday, Tim!

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Jul 14, 2023 1:21 pm Happy birthday, Tim!

Thanks Trevor.

12Z Euro shows very little until the middle of next week on this run.

Happy birthday Mr. Tim. Hope you're having a great day!

snowbo wrote: ↑Fri Jul 14, 2023 2:49 pm Happy birthday Mr. Tim. Hope you're having a great day!

Thank You So Much!!

Good Afternoon and the one thing this afternoon is the dew points stayed rather low. That is really starting to change west of here and that is why we should get a nice increase this evening and Saturday which should help in keeping this system going even when it gets here. That has been part of the problem lately is the increase in moisture has been slow and you end up with isolated areas in getting some decent rains. It is summer and not always easy to get a system with a low pressure but that looks to be the case and with the increasing dew points already happening to the west and quite fast this should up the odds most folks get in on the rainfall. How quickly it moves through will determine how much rain we end up with.

Tim... the lack of shear is one reason why nothing has gotten going yet. That is too the north currently of the better CAPE. That should begin to change later on this evening and tonight. As you said, we'll see how things look late this evening to help us determine what may happen in the morning.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 14, 2023 3:36 pm Tim... the lack of shear is one reason why nothing has gotten going yet. That is too the north currently of the better CAPE. That should begin to change later on this evening and tonight. As you said, we'll see how things look late this evening to help us determine what may happen in the morning.

Exactly Les and that looks to be headed south this evening into Saturday. I have noticed the grass starting to get a little crispy in spots especially on the hill facing south. Still other areas lush so would love to see a good inch or so of soaking rains where it comes down about 0.15 for 7-10 hours straight but its summer and that is usually not the case.

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88 now as of 4pm at CVG so an 89 or a 90 is possible.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jul 14, 2023 3:51 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 14, 2023 3:36 pm Tim... the lack of shear is one reason why nothing has gotten going yet. That is too the north currently of the better CAPE. That should begin to change later on this evening and tonight. As you said, we'll see how things look late this evening to help us determine what may happen in the morning.

Exactly Les and that looks to be headed south this evening into Saturday. I have noticed the grass starting to get a little crispy in spots especially on the hill facing south. Still other areas lush so would love to see a good inch or so of soaking rains where it comes down about 0.15 for 7-10 hours straight but its summer and that is usually not the case.

Same here Tim with regards to my lawn. That is why I may wait and see how the rain transpires tomorrow.

CVG 89'ed, DAY 88 and CMH 90'ed.

Developing MCS over S Wisc and ILL will be what we see, the leftovers tomorrow morning. IF we see widespread rain, then severe threat is limited Sat PM. If we get missed by this then the severe threat goes up Sat afternoon. 18Z HRRR has that MS missing us and dying out tot he north so we get decent coverage Sat afternoon. 18Z NAM holds the MCS together so we get a nice rain Sat morning / midday period so it is way more scattered later on and very little, if any severe. Those are the two model camps.

Plenty of CAPE until you get to Central IN then the storms will start to weaken then. Shear wise... still nothing unless you are well N of I-70 in Ohio and S Mich.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Jul 14, 2023 5:36 pm CVG reached 88, DAY 87 and CMH 89'ed.

CVG may have hit 89 on an intra hour reading after the 5pm climate report came out. 6 hour max temp as shown in this screen shot (2pm to 8pm) has 89. If the overnight climate report shows it, then I'll update the contest thread in the morning.


(Link time sensitive)

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KCVG.html

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CVG did get 89'ed yesterday per the overnight climate report so that makes #2. I will update the contest thread shortly.

Meanwhile, showers and t-storms are developing and heading our way this morning. Scattered right now, but more concentrated to our SW over ILL SW IN so we are waiting on that activity to get in here by late morning or midday. Severe threat is low today IMO due to all of the action already ongoing. Hope all can get that much needed rainfall for their lawns and gardens. Good luck folks!

The instability gradient is sitting just to our SW this morning so I would imagine some weakening will take place as the storms move into the tri-state later on. Everyone pretty much has 30 knots of bulk shear at this point.

We just got a crazy storm. Thunder shook the house and I about fell out of bed! Got about .75" of rain though.

Got a severe t storm warning after it passed. I don't see anything else on the radar so I'm assuming it was for that storm.

Good morning and no doubt a good chance of rainfall for everyone. Seems like the totals will be in the .30-.75 for most but if you get under a thunderstorm like Angelika did this morning those totals will be higher. Hope most folks get the higher totals as we need the rainfall. This should move through by evening and Sunday will be a warm and muggy day but isolated shower at best. Monday looks to be another day when rain chances go up before a nice cold front moves through late in the day. Tuesday could be quite nice with the humidity and temps backing off though summer time an isolated shower is possible. Wednesday through Friday a chance of showers an again way to far in advance to figure out the timing.

Some nice heat in the southwest and again mother nature is always balancing things out as the northeast will be much cooler next week. The southwest USA has been below normal in temps this summer but she is making up ground over the next week or so. That heat will try and expand northeast during the week and expect the central and southern plains to heat up nicely while we are on the western edge of a trough.

Some nice lightning and thunder this morning. Rainfall up to 0.45” and still coming down. Love it!