Absolute Vorticity

Friday going into next weekend is looking extremely interesting and there are more chances beyond that. Extended range is really starting to look sensational! I will dive more into that as time goes on. All eyes on today for sure.

DPs in western KY where the tornado watch is are currently in the upper 40s and low 50s

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 8:01 am DPs in western KY where the tornado watch is are currently in the upper 40s and low 50s

Many areas down there already between 2 and 3 inches of rain as well. Moving north/northeast and getting between 1-2 inches is very likely. Heaviest rain will probably be just to our west but if later this afternoon and early evening we may end up with more than 2 inches in spots that get a nice thunderstorm. The way the radar and surface reports are trending I do expect us to get into the warm sector later this morning and afternoon. Then do we break out with some sun or at least the sky is thinner in coverage. The system itself is still gaining strength as it approaches so getting some severe weather in the warm sector looks likely. The winds will also pick up this afternoon and when the front comes through expect wind gusts over 50 mph at times even without a thunderstorm.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 7:51 am Friday going into next weekend is looking extremely interesting and there are more chances beyond that. Extended range is really starting to look sensational! I will dive more into that as time goes on. All eyes on today for sure.

i would focus more on today and the severe weather that may happen, we will have plenty of time after today to drool over long range models

SPC update now has the enhanced risk up to Cincinnati. 10% hatched TOR in central KY, still 5% for us. Wind hatched area is now for the Tri-state on south, Hail risk is very low. Low pressure continues to deepen now down to 988 MB.

Overnight thoughts from the boys:

Multiple impacts are expected from a very strong storm system
today into tonight. Threats for heavy rain/flooding, strong
synoptic winds and severe weather all exist.

A strong negatively tilted mid level shortwave to eject from
the Lower MS Valley thru the Ohio Valley today and into the
the Great Lakes tonight as 100-110 KT jet rotates around the
base of this trof. Deepening surface low to track thru eastern
Indiana and western Ohio late this afternoon and evening.

An associated surface cold front will push quickly east across
the Ohio Valley later this afternoon.

Widespread showers to spread north across ILN/s forecast area
this morning ahead of this system associated with a low level
jet and favorable isentropic lift.

CAMS show elevated convection initially early this afternoon.
A narrow axis of surface based instability develops ahead of the
aforementioned cold front from about 20Z thru 00Z. This
window looks to develop into North Central Kentucky and
Southeast Indiana first and then work east across far southern
Ohio and Northern KY thru 00Z.

Damaging winds will be a threat with some of the stronger
storms with very strong winds just above the surface. Also,
favorable shear supports rotating storms and a tornadic threat
generally along and south of the Ohio River.

Continue to observe a signal for heavy rain with PW values of
1.2 to 1.4 inches which is 250-300 percent of normal. HREF mean
QPF continues to show values of 2 to 2.5 inches -- with the
highest totals over the west and southwest. Have continued a
Flood watch through late tonight.

The pressure gradient tightens with strong winds outside of
storms and the potential for wind gusts up to 50 mph. With an
low level inversion through most of the day the strongest winds
look to occur late in the day into this evening. Have continued
the wind advisory for the entire area this afternoon thru late
tonight.

Will continue to highlight the severe weather threat in the HWO
product.

12Z HRRR is still looking rather subdued, but the NAM is still all in!


STP - Very close for Cincy:

Really to close to call Les. The warm front is in southern Kentucky and trying to move northward. The problem is more rainfall in western Kentucky and western Tn continues to head northeast which sort of slows down the warm front. Another thing was overnight temps were a few degrees cooler than expected and with the rain this morning temps remain in the low 40's near us but Bowling Green,KY up to 66. So that air is moving northeast but where is the cutoff to the northwest with the higher temps. No doubt Lexington will get into the warm air but Louisville and Cincinnati will be right on the border line between getting into the 60's or staying in the upper 40's or low 50's later today.

If the low itself continues to track more northeast than north then the lower temps seem correct but if the low tracks more northward then that would allow the warm front to make another surge towards us. Now cast is big today

0.41" at CVG as of 9am.

I agree Tim... it's a very close call. The triple point is pretty much right in our area so we must keep a close eye on things this afternoon for sure. Having a warm front in the area can cause trouble sometimes. We just don't yet know unfortunately and the weather is going to change fast this afternoon.

I know we are focused on today's gully washers. For the long term my mind set is the models giveth and the models taketh away. Hopefully nobody has and any flooding issues and their basements stay dry.

ALERT: NKY counties have been upgraded to a high wind warning!


...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Northeast and Northern Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Saturday.

The NAM has a partner in the RAP. Here is the sounding for this afternoon near CVG.

0.76" now at CVG as of 10am. Winds gusting to 30 mph from the East since the warm front still has a ways to go.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 10:04 am 0.76" now at CVG as of 10am. Winds gusting to 30 mph from the East since the warm front still has a ways to go.

Louisville over 2 inches of rainfall. Front is trying to make it through the Lexington area at the moment and lets see how far north it pushes today. If this was a day like Monday and the sun came out for a few hours it would be a high severe chance. The heavier rains over many areas could be somewhat a saving grace but the winds are going to crank no matter what happens later today and overnight.

East of 71 is going to get a fairly long break after 11am from rain showers. That should be enough for those areas to see a better chance at severe

984 MB low now over the Boot Hill of MO. I think the low tracks NE towards EVV then thru SE Indiana. Clouds are trying to thin a bit over Central KY south of the warm front. Bgoney... I agree. Looking more interesting for sure in areas that aren't going to be as worked over. We may even see a break soon in CVG Land per latest radar trends. The low continues to deepen so that should help pull the warm front more northward as well.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 10:24 am East of 71 is going to get a fairly long break from rain showers. That should be enough for those areas to see a better chance at severe

No doubt the further south and east the better shot of severe weather. The one limiting factor today is the sun. Very few breaks in the clouds and though they thinned out near Bowling Green,Ky further south more cloud cover. Yes its March and the sun is getting higher in the sky and has an easier time of getting through the clouds. Of course today even without sunshine we can get severe storms with the front later today and any storm can really bring down some heavy wind gusts. Looks like the front has made it through Lexington and my guess their temp will go up several degrees in the next hour or two. Race against time here with the warm front/cold front.

Wind shear is around 70-80 knots and the helicity values are off the charts! Seeing values near LOU as high as 950! Normally values over 400-500 are concerning. So it's not going to take much CAPE with these insane dynamics in place. Cloud bases are very low too with LCL's only around 500.

Agree Les and with the low getting stronger that is concerning as the northeast trend earlier is more north/northeast which makes a big difference. If heading to Indy severe threat will only be the winds as the warm front will not make it that far and even Dayton I am not sure if it makes it that far north.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 8:25 am SPC update now has the enhanced risk up to Cincinnati. 10% hatched TOR in central KY, still 5% for us. Wind hatched area is now for the Tri-state on south, Hail risk is very low. Low pressure continues to deepen now down to 988 MB.

Now down to 984. Beast!

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 10:44 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 8:25 am SPC update now has the enhanced risk up to Cincinnati. 10% hatched TOR in central KY, still 5% for us. Wind hatched area is now for the Tri-state on south, Hail risk is very low. Low pressure continues to deepen now down to 988 MB.

Now down to 984. Beast!

It may bottom out to the 970s which I think allows for the low to track NW of us so the Triple Point could be NKY, CVG Metro area. That is my concern. Hope I am dead wrong about that.

From the boys as of 10:05 AM:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
With the very deep surface low tracking through western Ohio
Valley today and anticipation of steep pressure falls as the
low pushes through, the concern for even higher synoptic wind
gusts has prompted an upgrade to a high wind warning across
northern Kentucky.

Still some uncertainty with placement and northern extent of
severe storms this afternoon, but have slowed down the onset
time of thunderstorms and severe threat a bit. With the enhanced
risk now slightly further north, the greatest threat for the
higher end convective wind concern is right along and south of
the Ohio River, though damaging winds are possible as far north
as route 35 through southern Ohio and into SE Indiana.

Damaging wind remains the primary threat, though with enhanced
low level wind shear especially across northern KY and southern
Ohio, some potential for embedded supercells and tornadic
activity.

The cold front is in western Kentucky and though plenty of rain overnight severe storms are still firing at 9am their time this morning.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 10:45 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 10:44 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 8:25 am SPC update now has the enhanced risk up to Cincinnati. 10% hatched TOR in central KY, still 5% for us. Wind hatched area is now for the Tri-state on south, Hail risk is very low. Low pressure continues to deepen now down to 988 MB.

Now down to 984. Beast!

It may bottom out to the 970s which I think allows for the low to track NW of us so the Triple Point could be NKY, CVG Metro area. That is my concern. Hope I am dead wrong about that.

Your concerns are valid. SPC is noticing as well with the pull northward in risk area. Everyone be weather weather this afternoon! With a powerhouse low pressure nearby, tornadoes are a concern. Cell movement will be very fast as well so warning times will be lower than usual today.