Absolute Vorticity

Had a light dusting of snow here in my hood.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:49 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:39 am Wow... the map Bgoney posted is just pitiful! Not much more I can say. I don't think even inland lakes will be safe this year. I had a blast last Feb ice fishing for a couple of days with my cousin in S Michigan but I don't see it happening this year. He got out for like 2 days when we had that cold snap in December, and that's basically been it. A 2 day ice fishing season. My goodness!

That is pretty sad in terms of ice. My guess in northern China there are lakes around that are just the opposite as they have been on the colder side this winter season. Getting correct info from China even dealing with the weather is not exactly easy. Mother Nature will have balanced this out somewhere and we know Europe has been mild this season so folks in eastern Asia seems like the spot for the balancing act to occur.

Even in our country, it's been an odd winter. In MN it's been a wonderful winter with Minneapolis already beating their seasonal snowfall avg with plenty more to go for them time wise. Plenty of ice to fish on as well. Once you move further East a completely different story. So glad I'm not in NYC or the Mid Atlantic where they still have not seen a single flake of snow yet. It's been over a year and counting for some of these areas busting records left and right too for the lack of snow. I'm still happy at how we've done to date all things considered. We've been fortunate.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:53 am Had a light dusting of snow here in my hood.

I know it's not much, but I'm glad to see even you guys to the north at least get a little something out of this. Better then a zero®

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:50 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:29 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:24 am got a heavy dusting here overnight also. the near future looks very uneventful and next week they are showing more warm air.

I agree... we are back into hunting mode again for sure. The extended range looks tough for snow lovers.

Looking grim for much of the lower 48 for any significant snows the next 8 days at least.

I agree after the the system on Thursday hard to see any major snows south of I-80 and even north of there it seems more like light snows at best. Next week looks rather wet and mild and even folks close to the border have a chance of getting above 32 for a few days. How mild is still a question to be answered but at the moment would not be surprised that much of the week we are 10 degrees above normal and that is with wet conditions. Do we switch to a colder pattern late next week and at this point I see no signs either way and will wait to see how the pattern is shaping next week. What is rather unusual this winter is the lower 48 for January has been very mild for much of the country and usually seeing this you would expect Alaska to be below normal in temps but that is not the case this January as Fairbanks has averaged nearly 8 degrees above normal for temps and that is very similar to CVG.

We've had a -EPO at times which is why AK has been above normal. The problem has been that it's been an Aleutian ridge and when it's not extending all the way up into the North Pole, you are susceptible to a -PNA which is the trough out West and a SE ridge for us. That's exactly what has been happening. Typical La Nina conditions for sure.

Did manage a snow day today...always a nice gift. Enjoying it because it doesn't look good for the foreseeable future.

Kids got snow day after an initial delay. Thankful today not tomorrow or Thursday.

I think the canadian model scored for my area. Really didn't see the snow coming this far north on other models. Yes, it was only a dusting to half an inch in spots. At least I was ready for it.

young pup wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 10:59 am I think the canadian model scored for my area. Really didn't see the snow coming this far north on other models. Yes, it was only a dusting to half an inch in spots. At least I was ready for it.

JP, I believe your are correct and this winter the cmc model has been better with the arctic outbreaks. The gfs is faster than normal it seems with systems and the Euro not enough precip with this pattern.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 11:16 am

young pup wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 10:59 am I think the canadian model scored for my area. Really didn't see the snow coming this far north on other models. Yes, it was only a dusting to half an inch in spots. At least I was ready for it.

JP, I believe your are correct and this winter the cmc model has been better with the arctic outbreaks. The gfs is faster than normal it seems with systems and the Euro not enough precip with this pattern.

Agree with both of these posts!

Good Afternoon and the models this morning not helping my system much on Thursday. It has come somewhat north but not enough to give us anything decent. Today's system in the south central states has extended the precip a little further north today and that system is somewhat stronger than models showed. Parts of the Dallas area getting thunderstorm,light fog and mist with a temperature of 26. So folks as far north as maybe Louisville and Lexington may get in on a little action later tonight early Wednesday but at this point that would be the furthest north I expect of the precip unless you get a few flakes but I really don't count that as you can get that with cold air moving in.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 11:25 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 11:16 am

young pup wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 10:59 am I think the canadian model scored for my area. Really didn't see the snow coming this far north on other models. Yes, it was only a dusting to half an inch in spots. At least I was ready for it.

JP, I believe your are correct and this winter the cmc model has been better with the arctic outbreaks. The gfs is faster than normal it seems with systems and the Euro not enough precip with this pattern.

Agree with both of these posts!

I second the agreement with you two.

the only thing we need to be concerned about is the arctic attack coming later this week. they have me progged for -20-30 below zero wind chill late Friday night. wow ! thats going to be a shock to the body for sure

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 1:24 pm the only thing we need to be concerned about is the arctic attack coming later this week. they have me progged for -20-30 below zero wind chill late Friday night. wow ! thats going to be a shock to the body for sure

The core of the coldest air will be over New England. Our coldest day will be Friday with highs potentially staying in the 20s and lows in the teens. Then we'll warm up so it's not a huge deal for the OV as we are just on the Western edge of this cold air attack. For New England it will be a brutal couple of days, like what we had back on Christmas for example. But even by Sunday you all will start to moderate as well. Friday and Saturday are the brutally cold days for your hood.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 11:54 am Good Afternoon and the models this morning not helping my system much on Thursday. It has come somewhat north but not enough to give us anything decent. Today's system in the south central states has extended the precip a little further north today and that system is somewhat stronger than models showed. Parts of the Dallas area getting thunderstorm,light fog and mist with a temperature of 26. So folks as far north as maybe Louisville and Lexington may get in on a little action later tonight early Wednesday but at this point that would be the furthest north I expect of the precip unless you get a few flakes but I really don't count that as you can get that with cold air moving in.

I think the next two systems Tim are Central KY on south events. Maybe a few flakes for us on Friday with the cold air but that's about it. We will moderate and 50 is back by Monday. Looks like a weak front tries to move in Tues of next week with some light rain with a more wetter look as we approach the end of next week. That's unfortunately what we get to look forward too in the extended range IMO. The OP GFS tries to turn cold again after that but I don't trust it. One run it's cold, the next run it's warm so I'm tossing it out the window at this point. Using the Ensembles, which is the right thing to do in my mind, and the GEFS / EPS both have a trough west / ridge east pattern thru mid month. Not much for us snow lovers to get excited about for a while I'm afraid.

Another beautiful day but January is almost come to an end. Today's system is no doubt once again further north than models show as moisture is almost to St.Louis. So each wave has been off by 50-100 miles on the northern cutoff of precip and that is even 6-12 hours ahead of a system and this has NWS offices having to update quite often. Not because these systems are big but they have icing involved. Can the last one later on Wednesday have one big uptick to the northwest. So I will stick with the precip overnight getting into the I-64 areas of Kentucky. The cold is somewhat deeper so that far north it may be all snow.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 2:27 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 11:54 am Good Afternoon and the models this morning not helping my system much on Thursday. It has come somewhat north but not enough to give us anything decent. Today's system in the south central states has extended the precip a little further north today and that system is somewhat stronger than models showed. Parts of the Dallas area getting thunderstorm,light fog and mist with a temperature of 26. So folks as far north as maybe Louisville and Lexington may get in on a little action later tonight early Wednesday but at this point that would be the furthest north I expect of the precip unless you get a few flakes but I really don't count that as you can get that with cold air moving in.

I think the next two systems Tim are Central KY on south events. Maybe a few flakes for us on Friday with the cold air but that's about it. We will moderate and 50 is back by Monday. Looks like a weak front tries to move in Tues of next week with some light rain with a more wetter look as we approach the end of next week. That's unfortunately what we get to look forward too in the extended range IMO. The OP GFS tries to turn cold again after that but I don't trust it. One run it's cold, the next run it's warm so I'm tossing it out the window at this point. Using the Ensembles, which is the right thing to do in my mind, and the GEFS / EPS both have a trough west / ridge east pattern thru mid month. Not much for us snow lovers to get excited about for a while I'm afraid.

With the MJO headed to the maritimes in the coming days and weeks that means the SE Ridge isn't going anywhere anytime soon. After our brief cold spell expect the panhandle cutter pattern to return

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 3:49 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 2:27 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 11:54 am Good Afternoon and the models this morning not helping my system much on Thursday. It has come somewhat north but not enough to give us anything decent. Today's system in the south central states has extended the precip a little further north today and that system is somewhat stronger than models showed. Parts of the Dallas area getting thunderstorm,light fog and mist with a temperature of 26. So folks as far north as maybe Louisville and Lexington may get in on a little action later tonight early Wednesday but at this point that would be the furthest north I expect of the precip unless you get a few flakes but I really don't count that as you can get that with cold air moving in.

I think the next two systems Tim are Central KY on south events. Maybe a few flakes for us on Friday with the cold air but that's about it. We will moderate and 50 is back by Monday. Looks like a weak front tries to move in Tues of next week with some light rain with a more wetter look as we approach the end of next week. That's unfortunately what we get to look forward too in the extended range IMO. The OP GFS tries to turn cold again after that but I don't trust it. One run it's cold, the next run it's warm so I'm tossing it out the window at this point. Using the Ensembles, which is the right thing to do in my mind, and the GEFS / EPS both have a trough west / ridge east pattern thru mid month. Not much for us snow lovers to get excited about for a while I'm afraid.

With the MJO headed to the maritimes in the coming days and weeks that means the SE Ridge isn't going anywhere anytime soon. After our brief cold spell expect the panhandle cutter pattern to return

I agree and really the main question how strong of a a wave will help determine the SE Ridge and its strength. I have much of next week with temps that will end up averaging about 10 degrees above normal. A few days higher and then a few lower as a cold front comes through. What I was hoping for this March was a milder month compared to recent years but at the moment we may be in another spell of a cold March. Would not surprise me at all as Mother Nature keeps her balancing act going and when you see a January like we had the cold will come back and before the end of the year my guess we will be within a degree or so of average and to me that is just another normal year.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 3:49 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 2:27 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 11:54 am Good Afternoon and the models this morning not helping my system much on Thursday. It has come somewhat north but not enough to give us anything decent. Today's system in the south central states has extended the precip a little further north today and that system is somewhat stronger than models showed. Parts of the Dallas area getting thunderstorm,light fog and mist with a temperature of 26. So folks as far north as maybe Louisville and Lexington may get in on a little action later tonight early Wednesday but at this point that would be the furthest north I expect of the precip unless you get a few flakes but I really don't count that as you can get that with cold air moving in.

I think the next two systems Tim are Central KY on south events. Maybe a few flakes for us on Friday with the cold air but that's about it. We will moderate and 50 is back by Monday. Looks like a weak front tries to move in Tues of next week with some light rain with a more wetter look as we approach the end of next week. That's unfortunately what we get to look forward too in the extended range IMO. The OP GFS tries to turn cold again after that but I don't trust it. One run it's cold, the next run it's warm so I'm tossing it out the window at this point. Using the Ensembles, which is the right thing to do in my mind, and the GEFS / EPS both have a trough west / ridge east pattern thru mid month. Not much for us snow lovers to get excited about for a while I'm afraid.

With the MJO headed to the maritimes in the coming days and weeks that means the SE Ridge isn't going anywhere anytime soon. After our brief cold spell expect the panhandle cutter pattern to return

I unfortunately have to agree. Ensembles are dead on showing that pattern to out to 16 days. Just checked the 12Z EPS and it agrees. Canada is still plenty cold though but what I think will happen is we will continue to see the up's and down's. More Up's then down's. We probably have a 2 week warm stretch coming. Then after mid month a cool shot. A warm up again then another cold shot for March. something like that anyway. You know how it'll go. We'll get the blocking come April when I am trying to fish on Lake Erie again. The weather last year was terrible and we could only get out like 50% of the time. Expecting the same thing this year too due to Nina lag effects. We've had this Nina for 3 long years so it'll take a while for its impacts to disappear.

Once again has we head towards evening we are seeing the NWS in Paducah extend the winter weather advisory further north. Last night they went from WWA to a winter storm warning. Just shows models are really having a hard time and the Euro has been horrible in terms of precip and where its going to fall. This pattern seems to be the CMC's type of pattern and one to keep in mind if we were to get another arctic blast later this season.

I believe before this second wave passes we will see the NWS in Louisville throw out a winter weather advisory for folks in the I-64 area. Louisville may not get one but heading towards Lexington I would expect one to happen.

Tim, the models really have been awful. They can't even get 24 to 36 hours right and that's really pathetic. Not only has a wintry pattern been tough to get this season, but the guidance has been subpar. A few shining moments every now and again, like with the CMC and such but overall, no one model has really shined better then the other IMO.

Today won't make it to freezing obviously and we knew that thanks to the cloud cover. Mid to U20s is about it so today at CVG marks the first time in 36 days that we've had a high below freezing. Last time was on December 26th. That's pitiful.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 4:12 pm Tim, the models really have been awful. They can't even get 24 to 36 hours right and that's really pathetic. Not only has a wintry pattern been tough to get this season, but the guidance has been subpar. A few shining moments every now and again, like with the CMC and such but overall, no one model has really shined better then the other IMO.

Today won't make it to freezing obviously and we knew that thanks to the cloud cover. Mid to U20s is about it so today at CVG marks the first time in 36 days that we've had a high below freezing. Last time was on December 26th. That's pitiful.

Great Post Les and we may not make it above on Wednesday as well. Friday we know that we will stay below 32 and Saturday is still a toss up to see how fast the milder returns. But I agree the models subpar this season. I believe the forecasting on this forum has been better than the models have done and not hard as bad as they were this season.

Agreed Tim... we have certainly done better as a whole which is always good. The weather overall as a whole is rather boring until next week when rain returns by Tues. Not much else to talk about other then some flurries on Friday with that last cold shot. The winds have to line up just right for anything off of Lake Michigan to make it down here.