December 2022 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

.25"-.75" range for the week still looks good to me for the AV triangle of Cvg,Day, Cbus, isolated t-shower tonight could produce a brief downpour. Best rains continue to be central KY and southward. We just can't get a connection to the GOM this far north into our area. Moisture tonight is basically coming from the SW off the pacific

Bgoney I had forecast last week that the local area would in the 1-2 inch range before all is said and done. So far .013 inches so worried a little bit though I agree the higher totals were always going to be to our south and east. I will continue with my forecast though no doubt I am hedging towards the lower end of my totals. I thought the front would be near us all week and with a few waves coming through I thought we would get enough moisture to ring out that 1-2 inches. The good thing is we don't need to moisten up the atmosphere as you can see with a day of fog and mist. BTW my grass is greener at the moment then it has since late August and of course I got into the short term earlier than most as I missed the August rains that many folks ended up getting

I had 0.50 to 0.75" for this week. We shall see! Up to 0.02" here and at CVG for today so we're off to a roaring start!

Les we had 0.11 over the weekend and that was in my original forecast. I have recorded 0.04 here today so a little heavier than the airport.

[Bgoney]

This sums up the long range pretty good, huh?


WeatherFun.png

That PNA is poison

[tron777]

.25"-.75" range for the week still looks good to me for the AV triangle of Cvg,Day, Cbus, isolated t-shower tonight could produce a brief downpour. Best rains continue to be central KY and southward. We just can't get a connection to the GOM this far north into our area. Moisture tonight is basically coming from the SW off the pacific

Bgoney I had forecast last week that the local area would in the 1-2 inch range before all is said and done. So far .013 inches so worried a little bit though I agree the higher totals were always going to be to our south and east. I will continue with my forecast though no doubt I am hedging towards the lower end of my totals. I thought the front would be near us all week and with a few waves coming through I thought we would get enough moisture to ring out that 1-2 inches. The good thing is we don't need to moisten up the atmosphere as you can see with a day of fog and mist. BTW my grass is greener at the moment then it has since late August and of course I got into the short term earlier than most as I missed the August rains that many folks ended up getting

I had 0.50 to 0.75" for this week. We shall see! Up to 0.02" here and at CVG for today so we're off to a roaring start!

Les we had 0.11 over the weekend and that was in my original forecast. I have recorded 0.04 here today so a little heavier than the airport.

Thanks Tim. I forgot about the weekend which was in my original forecast too. CVG had 0.11" then add on 0.06" now for today for a total of 0.17" as of 7pm.

[tron777]

This sums up the long range pretty good, huh?


WeatherFun.png

That PNA is poison

Isn't it though? I couldn't resist posting that when I saw it online earlier.

[MVWxObserver]

https://absolutevorticity.com/viewtopic ... 0&start=25

AV Family, I have a couple of prayer requests that I want to share with you for myself and my mother Joyce.

Currently 46 here in G'ville.

[tron777]

Had a good downpour here! As of this post, I am up to 0.22" now for the day. 0.33" event total so far (counting the weekend rain as Tim and I discussed previously).

[tpweather]

CVG had .85 overnight so almost to 1 inch this week. Made a post to Bgoney last night how I was leaning towards the lower end of my 1-2 inches and of course we get some heavy rain. The Euro missed this one badly and pretty wild the CMC seems to be the model that is doing the best so far this season. Will that continue and we will see but no doubt it has not back off much on the cold for later next week and the other two have been back and forth though the Euro is somewhat better the gfs. I will post more once I have had my coffee and looked at the models. I usually look at all the current conditions for us locally and across Canada,Alaska and much of the USA plus a few other spots mainly in Asia but this morning going to look at the models first and then see it that makes sense to the current conditions.

[Bgoney]

CVG had .85 overnight so almost to 1 inch this week. Made a post to Bgoney last night how I was leaning towards the lower end of my 1-2 inches and of course we get some heavy rain. The Euro missed this one badly and pretty wild the CMC seems to be the model that is doing the best so far this season. Will that continue and we will see but no doubt it has not back off much on the cold for later next week and the other two have been back and forth though the Euro is somewhat better the gfs. I will post more once I have had my coffee and looked at the models. I usually look at all the current conditions for us locally and across Canada,Alaska and much of the USA plus a few other spots mainly in Asia but this morning going to look at the models first and then see it that makes sense to the current conditions.

Got deluged here with 3 rounds of showers with thunder, a whopping 1.80". I'll take it!!!!. Seems like thunder in December here In the OV is becoming more common than snow in December

[tpweather]

Habits are hard to break and I did my normal look at conditions first and then the models. I thought trying something different but the brain sometimes continues on the same path everyday. Tons going on this morning and I believe models are having a hard time figuring out the next 5 days as we have a front near us and we get these waves of low pressure to ridge along the front. The CMC has been sort of been on their own for rain on Sunday and starting to see the other two getting closer to the CMC forecast. Would this surprise me and no because any time you have a front located near us during this time of year chances of precip go up.

I mentioned last night about the mjo and if that were to hit phase 3 or 4 and stay there for a few days. Les I believe you are correct about this and other tellies especially the nao and ao are taking the leads in how the weather will look in the next 10-14 days and the mjo is just not strong enough to have much influence.

Concerning next week and major storms. Still believe one for Tuesday and Wednesday and then another system next weekend but models again seem to have problems with the storms in the south central states that form after a strong cold front comes through. So each day we get closer you can see one trend and that is they are seeing the colder air arriving next week and if this is true you must rate the CMC has the winner for the long term forecasts.

[tpweather]

CVG had .85 overnight so almost to 1 inch this week. Made a post to Bgoney last night how I was leaning towards the lower end of my 1-2 inches and of course we get some heavy rain. The Euro missed this one badly and pretty wild the CMC seems to be the model that is doing the best so far this season. Will that continue and we will see but no doubt it has not back off much on the cold for later next week and the other two have been back and forth though the Euro is somewhat better the gfs. I will post more once I have had my coffee and looked at the models. I usually look at all the current conditions for us locally and across Canada,Alaska and much of the USA plus a few other spots mainly in Asia but this morning going to look at the models first and then see it that makes sense to the current conditions.

Got deluged here with 3 rounds of showers with thunder, a whopping 1.80". I'll take it!!!!. Seems like thunder in December here In the OV is becoming more common than snow in December

Pretty wild and I thought last night a good .25-.50 would be the range and though I have been on high end for rainfall no way I ever saw this happening. The one thing I did take from last night was the atmosphere was primed and not one of those where the dry air is hurting us and boom we get hit rather hard. Still expect another round later Thursday and Friday and then the way things are going Sunday may be wet as well.

[Bgoney]

By the way, it got to 59 here last night.!!!

[tron777]

I busted low on the rain call it appears but no complaints since we absolutely needed it! You're on a roll Tim! Maybe I should post less? Naaa! Anyway... it is pea soup out my window this morning!

[tpweather]

I love to look at the NWS offices around the country to see what they are thinking about next week. As you would expect some met's are going with a warmer system on Tuesday/Wednesday and others a colder outcome. Again they are looking at the same info but how they see it playing out is different. This tells me they are just not sure if the colder look by the cmc or the warmer look by the gfs. Hopefully all 3 come together later this week and I believe they will and btw even since this past weekend they are getting closer and closer to each other for the upcoming pattern change. I still like the warmer system next week as I believe the low pressure works goes towards upper Michigan though some models keep this much further south. We have the cold in west central,northern Canada that we need tapped and a bigger storm imo helps bring it southward. The first big push comes after the storm next week no matter where the storm system ends up going. After that where will the main push of cold remain. Will it be the east coast and at first probably but in time does the trough dig further southwest. So expect many changes on the models the next several days but the good thing is colder is no doubt coming but once we get there does the storminess remain.

[tpweather]

I busted low on the rain call it appears but no complaints since we absolutely needed it! You're on a roll Tim! Maybe I should post less? Naaa! Anyway... it is pea soup out my window this morning!

Good Morning Les and we know how this works as sometimes you see things and it works out for an extended period and then other times the forecast goes down the tubes. My biggest problem is being stubborn and though it helps out sometimes it also can be a downfall. I will post more later as I have a few items to take care of this morning but really want to see the afternoon models especially for Sunday.

[tron777]

Our next rain maker comes Thurs afternoon and night, ending early Friday. We may see a few showers S of the river Sat but most folks should remain dry. Sunday is dry for everyone, a typical December day for the Bengals game at Paycor. Then, we get that bigger system Tues / Wed time period with falling temps Thurs which is the 15th and thus, our pattern begins!

The OP GFS the last few runs is beginning to come around now and looks much better pattern wise. It even dumps some true arctic air into the country as well beyond that pattern changing system. The STJ continues to looks active with storms coming out of the SW tracking along the edge of the arctic air. Does everything line up for us to get some of that white gold leading up to Christmas? Stay tuned!

[tron777]

I busted low on the rain call it appears but no complaints since we absolutely needed it! You're on a roll Tim! Maybe I should post less? Naaa! Anyway... it is pea soup out my window this morning!

Good Morning Les and we know how this works as sometimes you see things and it works out for an extended period and then other times the forecast goes down the tubes. My biggest problem is being stubborn and though it helps out sometimes it also can be a downfall. I will post more later as I have a few items to take care of this morning but really want to see the afternoon models especially for Sunday.

I can be stubborn too! Must be why we're friends and get along so well. Speaking of models... We make fun of the CMC a lot each winter but attm, it has been doing well so we cannot discount it right now. It has had that colder look for next week for the last 4 runs. We need to wait and see still, but I would not totally discount its solution to be honest.

[cloudy72]

Even got more up this way that I thought (0.27") plus some lightning in the mix!

[tron777]

Even got more up this way that I thought (0.27") plus some lightning in the mix!

Awesome! I guess thunder in December is our new norm now just like snow in April?

[Mjr]

Good morning
1.75 in the rain gage this morning.
Was looking at my gutters during the downpour(s) last night,
and one of them was over flowing. Need to check into that today..

[MJSun]

Got deluged here with 3 rounds of showers with thunder, a whopping 1.80". I'll take it!!!!. Seems like thunder in December here In the OV is becoming more common than snow in December

Got some great boomers and downpours here too- our dog was like "F this" and went to my kid's room.

We got bigger gutters in Spring (hired an awesome Amish contractor here on the East side- he was kind, quick and his price was amazing) and for once we don't have an overflow.

[tron777]

Got deluged here with 3 rounds of showers with thunder, a whopping 1.80". I'll take it!!!!. Seems like thunder in December here In the OV is becoming more common than snow in December

Got some great boomers and downpours here too- our dog was like "F this" and went to my kid's room.

We got bigger gutters in Spring (hired an awesome Amish contractor here on the East side- he was kind, quick and his price was amazing) and for once we don't have an overflow.

We got gutter guards installed here many, many years ago and it is great not to have to climb up a ladder ever again!

[tron777]

[tron777]

It is looking more and more like next week's low occludes in the Plains while the cold front sends rain our way on Wed and Wed night before passing thru on Thurs allowing temps to fall. This cuts down on the severe threat for Wed which is great news. We don't need another December of 2021 event that is for sure. We should avoid that outcome with the low occluding as is being shown on the Euro and GFS. Watching the 12z GFS now and another soaking beneficial rainfall is in the cards with this system. Could easily see 1-2" of rain with this thanks to the -NAO causing the low to occlude and the entire system to slow down.

[tron777]

Wow... 12Z GFS is even slower then the 6Z with that system for next week. If correct, we get wet on Wed and Thurs both. The cold air is delayed until Thurs night or Friday with backlash flurries and snow showers possible.

[dce]

Wow... 12Z GFS is even slower then the 6Z with that system for next week. If correct, we get wet on Wed and Thurs both. The cold air is delayed until Thurs night or Friday with backlash flurries and snow showers possible.

The storm train is on the move the last part of that run! All kinds of energy heading along the southern part of the country with the cold air kind of entrenched in the Midwest.