Absolute Vorticity

The weather was somewhat misty and cloudy but then the sun popped out as my nephew Jared and his bride Madison tied the knot this afternoon in Dickson, TN not far from Nashville! They'll be residing in Franklin, TN.

Currently 48 at home and progged for around 35 on Mon morning there.

GFS catching up to the EU with the 500mb pattern flip late week , in what will be one of the most anticipated troughs for the NW coast in quite some time, hopefully putting a huge dent in there ongoing fire season.
EPS and the late week switch-a-roo

Great news for the Northwest. This should also open up the GOM next week and hopefully a better chance of rain for us as well.

The only precip we have this week is a very small chance at a rain shower or a snow flurry on Tues. Otherwise nothing thru next weekend is expected. The 40s today and tomorrow, L50s Wed, mid to U50s Thurs, 60s Fri, and the 70s and a fantastic weekend is on tap! For lows, freeze warning in effect tonight. Will probably see that occur the next several nights. I'm expecting a range for CVG of U20s to L30s depending on wind and cloud cover. IMO, the coldest morning should be Wed if not Thurs morning with clear skies and calm winds will help lower temps.

Then... once we warm up, what happens? The obvious thing for us is needing rain. Models differ of course with the Euro having the front weaken on Monday with some light rain possible. GFS has the front coming in Tues in a weakening state but a nice rain on Wed as a secondary low forms and works up the front. Euro did not have this. So already... for next week... do we see rain and how much? Low confidence at this time.

Good Morning Les and looks like a quiet period as you stated except rather cold for this time of year and a chance for a flake or two. Rain chances this week are nearly zero but next week a pattern change and looks like chances of rain go up. The GOM is just ready for some action as it has been shut down for weeks and this is the time of year that we see more systems coming in from the west and that should provide better chances for rain starting next week. Models will catch on to this as well.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 17, 2022 7:48 am Good Morning Les and looks like a quiet period as you stated except rather cold for this time of year and a chance for a flake or two. Rain chances this week are nearly zero but next week a pattern change and looks like chances of rain go up. The GOM is just ready for some action as it has been shut down for weeks and this is the time of year that we see more systems coming in from the west and that should provide better chances for rain starting next week. Models will catch on to this as well.

Good morning Tim! It's early in the game mind you, but I don't like how the front for next week, runs into our ridge and weakens. If it runs into the ridge and stalls, that would be a different story, but it is concerning to see it wash out instead as it comes into our ridge. So that lessens our rain chances. This idea can certainly change, but the idea is on the table right now.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 16, 2022 7:50 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Sun Oct 16, 2022 2:15 pm The Columbus Marathon ran by the house today. Not a bad day at all for that. I believe the winner did it in 2hour and 15 minutes??? Last shorts day of the year? Time will tell.

I think you can break out the shorts next weekend too with temps at least down here into the lower 70s, like what we had today.

I hope it's a little brisk out here today. Going to stop as the wind is playing havoc with trying to get much done leaf wise. It is helping though by putting them in the neighbors yards. LOL

young pup wrote: ↑Mon Oct 17, 2022 11:36 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 16, 2022 7:50 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Sun Oct 16, 2022 2:15 pm The Columbus Marathon ran by the house today. Not a bad day at all for that. I believe the winner did it in 2hour and 15 minutes??? Last shorts day of the year? Time will tell.

I think you can break out the shorts next weekend too with temps at least down here into the lower 70s, like what we had today.

I hope it's a little brisk out here today. Going to stop as the wind is playing havoc with trying to get much done leaf wise. It is helping though by putting them in the neighbors yards. LOL

I think it'll be breezy tomorrow also before the high finally begins to build in and relax the wind.

I'm currently in Jackson Center in Shelby county. I can report my first light graupel/snow shower of the year.

dce wrote: ↑Mon Oct 17, 2022 1:04 pm I'm currently in Jackson Center in Shelby county. I can report my first light graupel/snow shower of the year.

Awesome!!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Oct 17, 2022 2:37 pm Screenshot_20221017-130616_Drive.jpg

She's basin wide now.... big time!

Bgoney, La Nina keeps holding on and you mentioned this last season how the models were trying to end the La Nina but you kept saying it looks we are going to continue with this for some period of time. Also the warmth in the northern Pacific and Atlantic is holding on as well so once again Mother Nature trying to balance things out. If La Nina continues and more signs showing it will then the winter forecast will usually mean less in the way of precip but with a La Nina Pattern it seems we get these really strong storms about 2-3 times during the winter season so it really is somewhat boring except for those periods.

Basin wide.

A chilly 47 at CVG right now with gusty winds out of the West. Mixed rain and snow showers over Michigan, continues to drop south this afternoon over N IN and N OH. We shall see who can see some flakes later tonight and tomorrow.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 17, 2022 4:04 pm A chilly 47 at CVG right now with gusty winds out of the West. Mixed rain and snow showers over Michigan, continues to drop south this afternoon over N IN and N OH. We shall see who can see some flakes later tonight and tomorrow.

Les it looks like two chances with the current rotation. First being overnight in the 4-8am period and then maybe again early Tuesday Evening. Of course the one later on Tuesday may be in the form of light rain of drizzle. Winds should stay up and with added cloud cover temps may only fall 33 or 34 degrees tonight. Tuesday night and Wednesday morning will depend on the wind as clouds should be departing and Thursday morning is how far do we drop Wednesday night before the winds start to blow from the south. Timing is always key in these possible freeze situations and some folks already have had a freeze and some may not get one this week but for the most part the growing season is over.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 17, 2022 4:15 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 17, 2022 4:04 pm A chilly 47 at CVG right now with gusty winds out of the West. Mixed rain and snow showers over Michigan, continues to drop south this afternoon over N IN and N OH. We shall see who can see some flakes later tonight and tomorrow.

Les it looks like two chances with the current rotation. First being overnight in the 4-8am period and then maybe again early Tuesday Evening. Of course the one later on Tuesday may be in the form of light rain of drizzle. Winds should stay up and with added cloud cover temps may only fall 33 or 34 degrees tonight. Tuesday night and Wednesday morning will depend on the wind as clouds should be departing and Thursday morning is how far do we drop Wednesday night before the winds start to blow from the south. Timing is always key in these possible freeze situations and some folks already have had a freeze and some may not get one this week but for the most part the growing season is over.

Great post Tim! After this week, the growing season should be over for most folks in our area. As far as the flakes go, the AM chance is our best chance, but some drizzle or a flake tomorrow evening is also possible, mainly north in my opinion on that one.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 17, 2022 11:45 am

young pup wrote: ↑Mon Oct 17, 2022 11:36 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 16, 2022 7:50 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Sun Oct 16, 2022 2:15 pm The Columbus Marathon ran by the house today. Not a bad day at all for that. I believe the winner did it in 2hour and 15 minutes??? Last shorts day of the year? Time will tell.

I think you can break out the shorts next weekend too with temps at least down here into the lower 70s, like what we had today.

I hope it's a little brisk out here today. Going to stop as the wind is playing havoc with trying to get much done leaf wise. It is helping though by putting them in the neighbors yards. LOL

I think it'll be breezy tomorrow also before the high finally begins to build in and relax the wind.

Yes sir, I was writing tomorrow off too. I will finish setting up the leaf truck and work on salt spreaders instead. I broke a lot of stuff this afternoon. LOL

I was in Springfield today and some flakes were flying!

Browneyedgirl wrote: ↑Mon Oct 17, 2022 6:16 pm I was in Springfield today and some flakes were flying!

Awesome! Hopefully, we are lucky enough to see a few in the morning too.

Up to 4 inches of snow in the winter weather advisory for northern Indiana. Power outages will probably occur up there if they get 3-4 inches of heavy wet snow with most of the leaves still on the trees.

dce wrote: ↑Mon Oct 17, 2022 6:51 pm Up to 4 inches of snow in the winter weather advisory for northern Indiana. Power outages will probably occur up there if they get 3-4 inches of heavy wet snow with most of the leaves still on the trees.

Duluth, MN has had several inches of snow already, and the UP of Mich, near Marquette, have already received over a foot with an additional foot expected thru tomorrow. Oh and in N IN, a couple of 2" reports already coming into IWX.

EDIT: In Cass Lake, MN where I was fishing just a month ago, had their first snow of the season on Friday of last week. The golf course where we stayed sent us a pic. Pretty awesome lol

First snow accumulation for Chardon. 3/4 of an inch at 10:15 PM.

Snowing in Amelia