Absolute Vorticity

Got .60" from Fri for a combined Tues / Wed / Fri end of week event total of 3.10"

Good Morning and ended up with .35 on Friday. So I got lucky with the 3 inches on Wednesday and a total so far of 3.35. The rains that developed later yesterday over Illinois mainly stayed to the south of the local area though we are getting some scattered showers this morning. Again the rainfall late yesterday and overnight was more scattered some localized areas got 2-3 inches in a short period. Looks like starting Sunday we are going to be in a rather dry spell. Temps will be rather close to normal most of the week and though a chance of rain Tuesday it looks rather low at the moment.

I think we see low chances for rain Tues - Thurs of next week. Highs on Mon thru most of next week in the seasonal 85 to 90 degree range with lows mainly in the 60s.

Slow moving front and weak low pressure to our south and that is keeping clouds and showers around this afternoon. Will dry out but change of plans for me and will build a fire and try to burn the remaining limbs that have fallen over the past few months and that stack was added to on Wednesday. Sunday should be a great day to mow the lawn and get things looking somewhat better. No changes to the extended and should be a rather day and near normal middle of July.

Took almost all day but the sun is out. Received .26 today so over the past four days over 3 and 1/2 inches. I know many folks did not receive that much and the heavier totals were very isolated but this was true over much of the midwest and Ohio valley the past week. For the month at CVG we are above normal for rain both in July and for the year. So getting these short term droughts makes it easier to recover if your yearly amount has been decent. Next week chances are low and maybe Tuesday afternoon but looks like that is mainly a timing issue and to early for that forecast. Temps though will be near normal with a tad above Monday and Tuesday and then a tad below Wednesday-Friday. Long term the models are drying us out and if this is true then expect some hot weather to return. Saying that if the heat returns we may not see the high humidity and it would not be that bad. Give me 92 or 93 with dew points in the low 60's and I will take that over dew points in the 70's any day.

I was at my Brother's all day and it rained there until about 3pm. Got home and checked my Davis and we got 0.39" here. CVG got 0.32" today. We're in good shape going into next week.

Good Morning and looks like a beautiful day in store. As we know long range for the models are sometimes just dead wrong and we see this in the winter more than the summer months. Most of the models are showing heat starting to expand later this week and could be around for a couple of weeks at least. This time though I believe they are correct as we see less rainfall happening next week and in mid-summer most of the time this means we are going to heat up. This looks to be the most widespread heat of the summer across the USA. Probably the 2 places that may remain normal or even slightly below is the northeast and yes folks in Florida. Double edge sword as well because if we can keep the dew points somewhat lower we don't have that horrible humidity but with lower dew points temps can rise higher.Way to early on how high we can go but from what I see 95-100 is possible starting around the 17th or so and that could last a couple of weeks. How do we break down these ridges in mid summer and not easy as the jet stream is well to the north and then we need to look at the tropics. This may happen in the gom and something we need to watch. Of course if this happens in a couple of weeks this can also strengthen heights as well and increase the heat. So yes weather in mid-summer can be very boring and just hope that the tropics can bring some relief earlier than normal

Pretty easy forecast for the next week. Mainly dry with highs 85 to 90 with lows 65 to 70. Best chance for rain is Tues and it's a low chance at that,

Good Afternoon and really the only surprise today has been the dew points near us and southeast have stayed rather high. Much nicer dew points in much of Indy and western Kentucky. I noticed when I was mowing that the dew point seemed higher than I expected but there was a nice breeze.

Saw where Lexington got about 1 1/4 over the past few days where 10 miles away over 4 inches. This is why trying to get rainfall amounts correct are almost impossible. We saw that Wednesday in our local area.

I picked up around 1.25" for the multiday event. Should be good to go and can handle a dry week now.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jul 08, 2022 7:12 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Fri Jul 08, 2022 6:34 pm Just a showery kind of day here. Under trees did not even get wet.

Yea , about the same here . It certainly un der-performed for SW Ohio until it got Into our far eastern counties where instability had a chance to build.

Glad it didn't rain to hard. Got in the work truck today and I left the windows down about 3 inches. Ooops.

Grass has greened up some here. I really thought it would be much greener by now. At least the yards don't have the complete brown and yellow look to them.

Just glanced at the next 10 days. I see only a couple of chances for rain unless I missed something. That's ok after 5" plus last week. Now to see if the grass can rebound with the sun out the next few days.

No doubt summer time rains can be so wide in range. I will end up with over 3 1/2 inches and I know Les who lives maybe 10-15 miles west at best was less than an 1 1/2. First time I had cut my lawn in 2 weeks and was in rather good shape after the rains. Not as lush that we saw in May and first half of June but for this time of year I am not complaining. I am starting to get concerned about a longer period without rainfall and a slight chance Tuesday but not expecting much and not widespread. If that ridging that is expected to take hold later this week in the central part of the country moves eastward then we could have that 2 week or so without rainfall plus this would no doubt bring some hot weather. I know some models are trying to bring some rainfall in here by Sunday. I know in Greenville,SC tons of rainfall this past week and talked to my son today and he said the yard looks like a war zone with all the limbs that fell in the past two storms.

Thankful that any early abnormally dry zones in the MV and Tri-state will be much eroded in this week's upcoming drought monitor outlook. My gauge picked up 3.10" from last week.

My lawn has come back. Will mow this week at some point. Back yard will have been over 2 weeks since it was last cut. Front a week and some change.

Should be interesting later this week Les as the models are hinting at something tropical near the gulf. Whether its tropical in nature or just a low pressure there should be some deeper moisture available. Where does this go next weekend will be key in our forecast. I am hoping we get in path of some rainfall and if we don't then I do worry about the extended heat taking over.

I don't see much tropically speaking getting going until August. Until then, we will continue to see bouts of heat with some rain chances in between. Low chances Tues and again maybe Sunday are perhaps some of the earliest trends that are showing up. The core of the heat will remain to the west. Low and mid 90s has been it for us. 109 with the humidity a time or two at CVG. That's been it. I don't think the heat will get any worse then that for the rest of the summer. The 100s should remain to our West IMO.

Good morning all! We have a shot at 90 today then a cold front comes thru tomorrow. The best chance for rain appears to be early in the day. Then the humidity drops. 90 comes back for this weekend along with the next threat for rain by Sunday.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 10, 2022 7:34 pm I don't see much tropically speaking getting going until August. Until then, we will continue to see bouts of heat with some rain chances in between. Low chances Tues and again maybe Sunday are perhaps some of the earliest trends that are showing up. The core of the heat will remain to the west. Low and mid 90s has been it for us. 109 with the humidity a time or two at CVG. That's been it. I don't think the heat will get any worse then that for the rest of the summer. The 100s should remain to our West IMO.

Yea , from the looks of the 500mb pattern in the coming weeks , I would agree . First time I've looked at a 500mb map since March, funny how in winter that's pretty much all I stare at , lol. Anyways, it looks like a return of NW flow, at least off and on for the late weekend and into the end of the month. Pretty much the same pattern of small bouts of heat broken up with pleasant bouts of summer days .

Dews are creeping back up... 70 now at CVG so the comfy dews were short lived. They should return by the Wed - Fri period.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jul 11, 2022 9:08 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 10, 2022 7:34 pm I don't see much tropically speaking getting going until August. Until then, we will continue to see bouts of heat with some rain chances in between. Low chances Tues and again maybe Sunday are perhaps some of the earliest trends that are showing up. The core of the heat will remain to the west. Low and mid 90s has been it for us. 109 with the humidity a time or two at CVG. That's been it. I don't think the heat will get any worse then that for the rest of the summer. The 100s should remain to our West IMO.

Yea , from the looks of the 500mb pattern in the coming weeks , I would agree . First time I've looked at a 500mb map since March, funny how in winter that's pretty much all I stare at , lol. Anyways, it looks like a return of NW flow, at least off and on for the late weekend and into the end of the month. Pretty much the same pattern of small bouts of heat broken up with pleasant bouts of summer days .

Good Morning guys. Yes I believe the pattern is pretty much the same and the difference is the area we are most likely getting our weather from is drying out and getting hotter. That is why I believe the second half of July will be hot and dry. The only possible problem and really not a problem is the tropics. The area I believe is along the gom and we see that this weekend and how the tropics can of course mess up the models but also forecasting. So after this really nice shot of cooler weather late this week how many more fronts will be able to make it through the Ohio Valley. I believe most will sort of skirt us to the northeast and yes we get a day or two of a tad cooler but expecting most of the month from July 16-31st to be hot and mainly dry.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jul 11, 2022 9:55 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jul 11, 2022 9:08 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 10, 2022 7:34 pm I don't see much tropically speaking getting going until August. Until then, we will continue to see bouts of heat with some rain chances in between. Low chances Tues and again maybe Sunday are perhaps some of the earliest trends that are showing up. The core of the heat will remain to the west. Low and mid 90s has been it for us. 109 with the humidity a time or two at CVG. That's been it. I don't think the heat will get any worse then that for the rest of the summer. The 100s should remain to our West IMO.

Yea , from the looks of the 500mb pattern in the coming weeks , I would agree . First time I've looked at a 500mb map since March, funny how in winter that's pretty much all I stare at , lol. Anyways, it looks like a return of NW flow, at least off and on for the late weekend and into the end of the month. Pretty much the same pattern of small bouts of heat broken up with pleasant bouts of summer days .

Good Morning guys. Yes I believe the pattern is pretty much the same and the difference is the area we are most likely getting our weather from is drying out and getting hotter. That is why I believe the second half of July will be hot and dry. The only possible problem and really not a problem is the tropics. The area I believe is along the gom and we see that this weekend and how the tropics can of course mess up the models but also forecasting. So after this really nice shot of cooler weather late this week how many more fronts will be able to make it through the Ohio Valley. I believe most will sort of skirt us to the northeast and yes we get a day or two of a tad cooler but expecting most of the month from July 16-31st to be hot and mainly dry.

To your point Tim, there is a small chance that a N Gulf wave gets going this weekend then moves inland early next week. If correct... that would delay the heat and give us a better shot of t-storms too depending on its track. I believe this is a low chance of occurring, so if it doesn't occur, it wouldn't shock me either.

BG Blog Update: Later in the day now, he no longer works mornings.

86 so far today at CVG so 90 looks highly unlikely. Even getting 89'ed might be a stretch.