Absolute Vorticity

Good morning all and the data clearly shows the La Nina raging on and the MJO as of 5/9 came back out of the neutral circle a few days ago and is in weak Phase 2. Probably headed towards a Weak 3 or the Circle if I had to venture a guess. Pretty much means little change from what we've been seeing over the last few months. The heat upcoming is a temp. thing then we're back to a NW Flow pattern and an interesting severe wx look with NW to SE diving MCS complexes possible as we approach mid month. Let's see how this idea works out for next week.

BG StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/05/10/goode- ... pdate-510/

Due to debris clouds from earlier t-storms... will that keep us in the 70s versus the low 80s today? We'll see!

76 and mo sunny now... 80+ should now not be an issue.

12Z GFS shows us becoming active this weekend (esp on Sunday) then Tues of next week as well. More action in the longer term too.

80 now at CVG with a dew of 65. A bit sticky out there now. A true June / July like day in early May. We are right on the edge of the heat, deeper moisture, and instability gradient. Folks along and to the west of I-75 might run the risk of a storm if the CAP breaks. Otherwise no issues to speak of and enjoy the nice weather.

12Z Euro now indicating a 20-30% chance Sat afternoon for us and likely action now Sun late... thru about midnight.

SOI today an astounding 40+

Got to 83 at both CVG and DAY, 82 at CMH ~ will be interesting to see if come Wed morning any adjustments on those.

Currently 81 here in G'ville.

UPDATE: 84 CVG and DAY and 83 CMH.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue May 10, 2022 6:16 pm SOI today an astounding 40+



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Wow! One of the criteria of a La Nina from the Aussie Mets is that the the three-month average for the SOI has to be at least +7 or higher. The avg SOI value for the last 90 days is almost double that at a whopping 13.58 as the graphic shows! Somebody is going to get a hot summer and depending on where the heat ridges set up, some tropical activity maybe looming as well. For our sake, I am hoping the heat remains in Texas, S Plains, Western US due to the drought and we get MCS City. I am sure we will have stretches like this week in the summer but it'll be the typical U80s to L90s. This is not my forecast but "my hope" for the summer. I don't think anyone wants to bake. Big heat already has come in early May to our South and West.

Good Morning. A very muggy day yesterday but part of that was the quick rise in dew points and part of that was due to the recent rainfall. The dew points for the remainder of the week look to go down along with the temps as the ridge heads further west and we should get some nice east winds. Hopefully by Sunday we get in on the action for rain once again and that could last for a day or two. Les made a great point about the heat building in the southern plans and still remains in the southwest. Getting the heat in the southern plains along with a northwest flow for us can most likely deliver a pattern where we see several mcs complexes over the next 6 weeks. Though these events can cause damaging winds they also can produce some decent rainfall. Concerning La Nina and rare territory and I really not sure where the heat will be this summer though the southwest which missed out on their rainy season is the most likely place for the heat to take place but like Les mentioned we should have times of heat roaring in but hopefully these are quick hitters of heat.

Good morning all! 84 at CVG yesterday. Today is similar with clouds to start, L70s for temps already, and some sun later. 85-86 ought to be possible today. No changes to rain chances. Small chance Sat better chances later on Sunday and Sunday night.

Hey Tim... I'm interested in the set up for next week in terms of a NW Flow aloft pattern and possible MCS's dropping in from the NW heading SE. Been seeing some signs on the models of a possible pattern like that. We'll see as usual. The cooler air looks to last about 3 days or so then the 80s fight back in. It is when they try and fight back in that I wonder if some stronger storms will be possible? Plenty of time to see if this is possible or model noise.

Hey Les and I agree but we also know those complexes are hard to predict until they sometimes get started in the late evening northwest of us. The pattern is in good shape for these complexes to form but having the correct pattern doesn't always lead to the MCS but I like are chances.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 6:36 am Hey Les and I agree but we also know those complexes are hard to predict until they sometimes get started in the late evening northwest of us. The pattern is in good shape for these complexes to form but having the correct pattern doesn't always lead to the MCS but I like are chances.

Nailing down the boundary's position of course will be key to seeing how these complexes will track.

Low clouds should mix out later for a sunny afternoon. Today should be the warmest day this week. Then the dews drop a bit tomorrow - Friday as well as temps, going with lower 80s. Storm chances this weekend, highest Sunday late then we'll see if the MCS Train hits us next week or misses to the SW and we are cool and pleasant. We'll take a one way ticket on the MCS Train please.

Hit 84 here yesterday for a high for the year thus far. Only 67 this morning so should be another very warm day (as you mentioned Les ).

BG StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/05/11/goode- ... pdate-511/

So I'm a big snow weenie in the winter and an MCS weenie in the late spring and early summer. I too hope that we see a lot of MCS's this summer (without the damaging winds, of course). Hoping that the weather is nice next weekend for my camping trip. Been seeing mainly rounds of rain and thunder on the GFS for next weekend and a few runs where it's showing nice weather. Lol

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 9:31 am So I'm a big snow weenie in the winter and an MCS weenie in the late spring and early summer. I too hope that we see a lot of MCS's this summer (without the damaging winds, of course). Hoping that the weather is nice next weekend for my camping trip. Been seeing mainly rounds of rain and thunder on the GFS for next weekend and a few runs where it's showing nice weather. Lol

An early call by me but... temps in the 80s with the usual afternoon and evening storms.

Not only do we have the rain chances this weekend, but the new 12Z GFS has action into Mon now too with a slower frontal passage. Interesting...

It looks like a new low comes up along the front for Tues. Looking active at some point this weekend on into next week if this is correct.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 12:55 pm It looks like a new low comes up along the front for Tues. Looking active at some point this weekend on into next week if this is correct.

I'm just hoping action holds out Friday evening as I have an outdoor show!

rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 1:00 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 12:55 pm It looks like a new low comes up along the front for Tues. Looking active at some point this weekend on into next week if this is correct.

I'm just hoping action holds out Friday evening as I have an outdoor show!

So far to me it is still looking to be dry. It should stay that way with easterly flow beginning tomorrow and lasting thru Friday before we turn around to the south again with the storm chances then beginning this weekend. This is the current expectation as long as nothing changes.

The boundary is actually moving across our W counties now. Drier dews are slowly going to be advecting in from the east. Dew at CVG is at 68 but at ILN you're at 51! So still warm, but an improving airmass for the comfort factor is expected to slowly occur now.