Absolute Vorticity

12Z GFS continues to look active with our usual temp swings... Same ole song and dance folks.

12Z Euro has an inch of rain this weekend at CVG. Plenty of time to time that one out once we get past today's front. 0.01" here / CVG for rain so far. We'll see if anything can get going before the front passes thru early evening. Current radar so far, not looking very impressive.

The "exciting news" for this upcoming week are two frost threats. One patchy, the other a better chance to form. Wed morning and Thurs morning are the two chances. Wind may save us Tues night but I think with the cool Canadian high overhead Wed night / Thurs morning, that should hold the best promise. I am not planting my sensitive crops yet outside as we can get frosts up until Mother's Day on avg, and even beyond then as we have seen in the last couple of years.

I think we're done with snow until the Fall or winter months. Not seeing any signs of that. But for frost, if we can make it thru the first week of May... then hopefully... we are all systems go for the 2022 Growing Season!

Getting another quickie little downpour here so the severe threat is probably getting reduced from the I-75 corridor and points west. To the east, CAPE of 500 J/kg exists so we'll see. Some better looking cells to the West of Newark, OH. Maybe a stronger cell closer to home over S Kenton Co trying to do a little something. Nothing severe anywhere yet as of this writing...

About 0.25" here in the Burg so far and still a bit more to go. Temps peaked at 73 earlier and now down to 65.

Honestly - all I want at this stage is just to hear some thunder. Is that too much to ask? GFS say - Yup! LOL

Mike, I had a rumble of thunder so there's that. Looks like scattered cells are firing for the East siders and everyone else will finish this event with 0.10" or less in the rainfall dept, myself included.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 25, 2022 3:43 pm Mike, I had a rumble of thunder so there's that. Looks like scattered cells are firing for the East siders and everyone else will finish this event with 0.10" or less in the rainfall dept, myself included.

Les once again the timing killed us and models always have a hard time with this set up. I had to put down some new grass seed and usually do it in the fall but had an area that was bad so at 1pm I went out and watered.

0.03" here today. Down to 62 with a NW wind. Game over for me in the rainfall dept until this weekend. That isn't good for my spinach. I am going to need to water it too. Trying to finish up my harvest to throw some bean seeds in the next 10-14 days.

A few sprinkles here, I don't need it ,so I'm good with that. Hopefully the farmers can now go gangbusters later in the week.

60 here this evening with the last of the drizzle / showers working thru. Dry air moves in tonight with a NW breeze. No frost issues expected with temps hanging in the 40s. Then we get the frost chances I spoke of earlier while we track the weekend rain potential. Not much else going on locally attm.

I picked up .80" from Sun night and Mon.

40s here as the clouds just broke. Some 30s to our NW where skies were clear longer. Still cloudy east but improving skies will be found. Two frost threats up coming... a slow warming trend... then rain chances this weekend into early next week. A pretty simple forecast this far out in time.

My current weekend Next Week thoughts... I don't think it'll be a wash out. In fact, a lot of dry time Sat with scattered showers possible as a warm front moves in. Then a break with the cold front Sun stalling it nearby. Where is still a question. Closer to the River or NW of Cincinnati? Some heavier rains in my mind occur next week Mon and Tues wherever the front happens to stall out. Finally by Thursday or so, a stronger front pushes thru the clear the area of any rain and convection for a bit. April ends quiet, with May trying to see if it can get something going for somebody. No guarantees in weather as we all know.

Myself and CVG bottomed out at 40 with the last hour or two of clear skies we had at our locations. 50s, maybe 60 if we're lucky S of the River. I think we'll stay either side of 60 most days depending on how much sun we get thru Fri. Warmer air with the warm front this weekend as we've said with U60s and some 70s as well expected.

39 was my low this morning. Actually ended up with 0.35" yesterday. Flip-flopping GooFuS model back to stormy for next week. I'll lock this run in please.

Earlier BG StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/04/26/derbyt ... pdate-426/

Been busy working this morning so haven't had time to post lol

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 26, 2022 12:00 pm Earlier BG StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/04/26/derbyt ... pdate-426/

Been busy working this morning so haven't had time to post lol

That's ok Les, there's not much weather to talk about. Same ole same ole, a little more active starting late Saturday and then off and on through next Wednesday. Maybe a nice Saturday for the derby before another cold front comes in according to the 12z GFS.

Thank you Joe! Euro text data for CVG shows the highest rain chances to be (using CVG) late Sat into early Sun... then next week Mon night into Tues and again Wed night into Thurs. So active being the key word right now with timing and amounts TBD...

ALERT: Frost Advisory in effect tonight for the entire area!

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost
formation.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana,
Northeast and Northern Kentucky and Central, South Central,
Southwest and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if
left uncovered.


Cool graphic below thanks to The Gummer at Local 12:

18Z GFS shows a stormy pattern upcoming with a couple of potent looking systems too.

Good morning all! 34 here with some light frost. Mainly car and roof tops here.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 27, 2022 6:51 am Good morning all! 34 here with some light frost. Mainly car and roof tops here.

Same here.

Good Morning and no frost at my house but its a bit nippy to say the least. Looks like we start to get into a stormier pattern late this week but how far off are the models in terms of possible rainfall. Many models are showing well over 2 inches in this period and that would be great. Saying that and you try to look at what the pattern is showing us and it seems to me heavier precip in the Missouri Valley into the great lakes but these systems seem to run into drier air in the Ohio Valley. This tempers my thoughts on how much rainfall will occur. I am going with 1-2 inches between later Friday through Mothers Day. I hope my prediction fails and we get double that amount but from what I see so far I will go with the lower number. There will be plenty of dry periods as well but trying to pin those down can be tough as several systems will be happening over the eastern half of the country.

35 here - did not see much in the way of frost but if there was any it was light. Exciting times ahead on the long range models! May is the typical peak of the tornado season and if the models are correct it will play out that way across the central and eastern US over the next couple of weeks at least.