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Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:27 am
by Trevor
12z high-resolution Canadian is coming in warmer. Rain doesn't transition to freezing rain until Thu afternoon. This run looks more like previous NAM runs.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:31 am
by Trevor
I should also note that the RGEM is slower.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:31 am
by tron777
Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:27 am
12z high-resolution Canadian is coming in warmer. Rain doesn't transition to freezing rain until Thu afternoon. This run looks more like previous NAM runs.
RGEM has been bumping north since yesterday.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:32 am
by Trevor
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:31 am
Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:27 am
12z high-resolution Canadian is coming in warmer. Rain doesn't transition to freezing rain until Thu afternoon. This run looks more like previous NAM runs.
RGEM has been bumping north since yesterday.
Good observation. We still get plenty of ice per this run, but it doesn't start until later.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:33 am
by tron777
Want to see if GFS and Euro bump south. If they do, and that's an if, then I am going to ignore the northern solutions for the moment. Want to see what those two do first. Normal to see the typical wobbles this far out still. Those should begin to subside tomorrow.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:34 am
by tron777
Depending on when the changeover occurs... Thurs night and Fri morning are going to suck area wide. Northern areas probably by Thurs morning will change and TBD for the rest of us on Thursday. Models are beginning to get into some agreement though overall.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:36 am
by Trevor
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:33 am
Want to see if GFS and Euro bump south. If they do, and that's an if, then I am going to ignore the northern solutions for the moment. Want to see what those two do first. Normal to see the typical wobbles this far out still. Those should begin to subside tomorrow.
That's a reasonable course of action.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:39 am
by Trevor
12z GFS running now.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:40 am
by dce
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:34 am
Depending on when the changeover occurs... Thurs night and Fri morning are going to suck area wide. Northern areas probably by Thurs morning will change and TBD for the rest of us on Thursday. Models are beginning to get into some agreement though overall.
The UKMET has consistently been south too. I'm a little curious to see if it bumps a little north. Hopefully not too far. It probably will come more into line with the rest of the models, you would think.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:42 am
by Trevor
dce wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:40 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:34 am
Depending on when the changeover occurs... Thurs night and Fri morning are going to suck area wide. Northern areas probably by Thurs morning will change and TBD for the rest of us on Thursday. Models are beginning to get into some agreement though overall.
The UKMET has consistently been south too. I'm a little curious to see if it bumps a little north. Hopefully not too far. It probably will come more into line with the rest of the models, you would think.
Typically the case as we get closer to an event. Rarely is there a huge outlier by the time it starts.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:42 am
by tron777
dce wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:40 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:34 am
Depending on when the changeover occurs... Thurs night and Fri morning are going to suck area wide. Northern areas probably by Thurs morning will change and TBD for the rest of us on Thursday. Models are beginning to get into some agreement though overall.
The UKMET has consistently been south too. I'm a little curious to see if it bumps a little north. Hopefully not too far. It probably will come more into line with the rest of the models, you would think.
Yeah... the UKIE has been south with almost every storm this winter and has corrected north to some degree every time.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:47 am
by Trevor
GFS is essentially the same as 00z through hour 45.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:51 am
by Trevor
Slightly colder and further south through hour 57.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:55 am
by fyrfyter
GFS says transition to ice 3z-6z Thurs.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:56 am
by Trevor
Much colder and further south through hour 75 versus 00z.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:57 am
by Bgoney
Gfs holding serve
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:57 am
by fyrfyter
Only a few hours of freezing rain, then sleet.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:57 am
by tron777
She's coming south... bad ice storm for CVG... and esp SE Counties.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:58 am
by tron777
N Cincy burbs to I-70 is pound town for heavy snow....
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:00 am
by Trevor
Transition to heavy snow for Cincinnati Thu evening-night.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:00 am
by fyrfyter
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:57 am
She's coming south... bad ice storm for CVG... and esp SE Counties.
Looks like about a 30 mile shift South.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:01 am
by Trevor
This run is essentially a carbon copy of 06z, but much colder and further south than 00z.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:02 am
by Trevor
Still snowing at 15z Friday. Wow this is a big hit!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:02 am
by House of Cards
Does TWC still name their stupid storms? Gonna call this one Joe Brrrr.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:03 am
by dce
Wow! That would be historic of it verified!