Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022

[Trevor]

12z high-resolution Canadian is coming in warmer. Rain doesn't transition to freezing rain until Thu afternoon. This run looks more like previous NAM runs.

[Trevor]

I should also note that the RGEM is slower.

[tron777]

12z high-resolution Canadian is coming in warmer. Rain doesn't transition to freezing rain until Thu afternoon. This run looks more like previous NAM runs.

RGEM has been bumping north since yesterday.

[Trevor]

12z high-resolution Canadian is coming in warmer. Rain doesn't transition to freezing rain until Thu afternoon. This run looks more like previous NAM runs.

RGEM has been bumping north since yesterday.

Good observation. We still get plenty of ice per this run, but it doesn't start until later.

[tron777]

Want to see if GFS and Euro bump south. If they do, and that's an if, then I am going to ignore the northern solutions for the moment. Want to see what those two do first. Normal to see the typical wobbles this far out still. Those should begin to subside tomorrow.

[tron777]

Depending on when the changeover occurs... Thurs night and Fri morning are going to suck area wide. Northern areas probably by Thurs morning will change and TBD for the rest of us on Thursday. Models are beginning to get into some agreement though overall.

[Trevor]

Want to see if GFS and Euro bump south. If they do, and that's an if, then I am going to ignore the northern solutions for the moment. Want to see what those two do first. Normal to see the typical wobbles this far out still. Those should begin to subside tomorrow.

That's a reasonable course of action.

[Trevor]

12z GFS running now.

[dce]

Depending on when the changeover occurs... Thurs night and Fri morning are going to suck area wide. Northern areas probably by Thurs morning will change and TBD for the rest of us on Thursday. Models are beginning to get into some agreement though overall.

The UKMET has consistently been south too. I'm a little curious to see if it bumps a little north. Hopefully not too far. It probably will come more into line with the rest of the models, you would think.

[Trevor]

Depending on when the changeover occurs... Thurs night and Fri morning are going to suck area wide. Northern areas probably by Thurs morning will change and TBD for the rest of us on Thursday. Models are beginning to get into some agreement though overall.

The UKMET has consistently been south too. I'm a little curious to see if it bumps a little north. Hopefully not too far. It probably will come more into line with the rest of the models, you would think.

Typically the case as we get closer to an event. Rarely is there a huge outlier by the time it starts.

[tron777]

Depending on when the changeover occurs... Thurs night and Fri morning are going to suck area wide. Northern areas probably by Thurs morning will change and TBD for the rest of us on Thursday. Models are beginning to get into some agreement though overall.

The UKMET has consistently been south too. I'm a little curious to see if it bumps a little north. Hopefully not too far. It probably will come more into line with the rest of the models, you would think.

Yeah... the UKIE has been south with almost every storm this winter and has corrected north to some degree every time.

[Trevor]

GFS is essentially the same as 00z through hour 45.

[Trevor]

Slightly colder and further south through hour 57.

[fyrfyter]

GFS says transition to ice 3z-6z Thurs.

[Trevor]

Much colder and further south through hour 75 versus 00z.

[Bgoney]

Gfs holding serve

[fyrfyter]

Only a few hours of freezing rain, then sleet.

[tron777]

She's coming south... bad ice storm for CVG... and esp SE Counties.

[tron777]

N Cincy burbs to I-70 is pound town for heavy snow....

[Trevor]

Transition to heavy snow for Cincinnati Thu evening-night.

[fyrfyter]

She's coming south... bad ice storm for CVG... and esp SE Counties.

Looks like about a 30 mile shift South.

[Trevor]

This run is essentially a carbon copy of 06z, but much colder and further south than 00z.

[Trevor]

Still snowing at 15z Friday. Wow this is a big hit!

[House of Cards]

Does TWC still name their stupid storms? Gonna call this one Joe Brrrr.

[dce]

Wow! That would be historic of it verified!