February 2022 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Les you make a great point about the dry lines and those are key to really getting severe storms in the spring. Sure we can get severe weather but add the dry lines with moisture from the GOM and then a bad severe outbreak can happen.

[tron777]

My call currently for Friday is some rain showers, perhaps ending as some mood flakes and not really a big deal. QPF amounts less then 0.10"

[tron777]

Les you make a great point about the dry lines and those are key to really getting severe storms in the spring. Sure we can get severe weather but add the dry lines with moisture from the GOM and then a bad severe outbreak can happen.

Exactly. If the trough sets up over the Central Plains then you know the Gulf is going to be wide open for business so moisture return and nice dews aren't going to be an issue. Dry air punching in from the west could be a good trigger too esp early on like in March or April when Canadian cold air masses are still normally lurking nearby.

[tpweather]

My call currently for Friday is some rain showers, perhaps ending as some mood flakes and not really a big deal. QPF amounts less then 0.10"

I am going a little higher in totals just because there seems to a period where the atmosphere is ramping up the moisture plus the front itself is rather strong. So at the moment going with around .25 but will no doubt watch the trends over the next few days. Getting to the time of year where any influx from the gulf can up totals rather quickly.

[tron777]

I may need to change as well Tim, but I like the lower QPF call for now. Anyway currently... we're just in a watch n wait mode to see if we can get one or two more snow and / or ice makers then bring on t-storm season! 40s out there this afternoon so not too shabby for February. I'm going with 50 tomorrow if clouds don't hurt our chances. 30s Thurs then close to 50 again for Fri cloud and rain shower dependent. 30s this weekend, moderating again next week.

[tpweather]

I may need to change as well Tim, but I like the lower QPF call for now. Anyway currently... we're just in a watch n wait mode to see if we can get one or two more snow and / or ice makers then bring on t-storm season! 40s out there this afternoon so not too shabby for February. I'm going with 50 tomorrow if clouds don't hurt our chances. 30s Thurs then close to 50 again for Fri cloud and rain shower dependent. 30s this weekend, moderating again next week.

Finally we got the second plow to go through here and all it did was throw more sleet into the bottom of my driveway. Why even plow this late in teh game.

[tron777]

I may need to change as well Tim, but I like the lower QPF call for now. Anyway currently... we're just in a watch n wait mode to see if we can get one or two more snow and / or ice makers then bring on t-storm season! 40s out there this afternoon so not too shabby for February. I'm going with 50 tomorrow if clouds don't hurt our chances. 30s Thurs then close to 50 again for Fri cloud and rain shower dependent. 30s this weekend, moderating again next week.

Finally we got the second plow to go through here and all it did was throw more sleet into the bottom of my driveway. Why even plow this late in teh game.

Oh wow! That's pretty bone headed. We had a bull dozer come down here yesterday and plow some ice / sleet off to the sides. So they pile up a bunch of it between mine and my neighbors mailboxes. Ugh... Luckily, the mail lady was still able to deliver as she was able to plow thru it. As for me, I've got the top part of the driveway clear where the sun hits it and it's enough room to park a car at the top. Been trying to get a path shoveled from there to the garage so you can get the garbage out, unload groceries, etc without falling and breaking your neck! I've got half of the path down to the pavement but the bottom part of the path down by the garage won't get sun until summer and only about a month of it at that so it'll thaw when it thaws. Snow storms are fine, but ice and sleet storms are hell on a driveway like mine. It's goes downhill and faces north.

[tron777]

18Z GFS this evening has the clipper's cold front coming thru Fri night / Sat morning so a few rain / snow showers associated with it. The front slows down and stalls but too far to the SE for our weather. The SB Storm tries to get going, but it phases too late. Best chance for any accumulating snow are over the mountains of Eastern KY and WV should this solution be correct.

[tron777]

18Z GFS has the 2 low idea again for Thurs / Fri of next week but low #2 is too far SE on this run.

[tron777]

46 today, currently 37. We should stay above freezing, at lewast down here tonight under S winds. Let's see if CVG can hit 50 tomorrow. Will of course be clouds / precip dependent but ahead of that next weak little front / clipper, we will have a shot. Same with the next one on Fri.

[Bgoney]

North slope cold

Screenshot_20220208-202102_Twitter.jpg

[Wxlrnr]

May supposed to be above freezing, but sidewalks refreezing, even with porch roof dripping.

[tron777]

May supposed to be above freezing, but sidewalks refreezing, even with porch roof dripping.

Yep, same here! My driveway will have ice until Spring, literally.

[tron777]

Good morning! A rain shower or snow shower is possible today with that weak clipper. Same thing on Fri with mainly rain showers ending as flurries Sat morning. Then some more flurries possible with the last clipper on V-day. Finally, rain Thurs into Fri of next week with a more significant system. Still waiting to see if it's one low or two. Again. two lows are needed for snow weenies to prosper.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les. I agree 100p/c we need two waves next week to get a decent snow. Somewhat different set up than last week as we have a piece of energy that comes in California and heads east.The AO is really positive an this will most likely help cut the first storm into the great lakes and we get mainly rain and quite a bit which may help clean up the roads. Then what happens is something we need to watch as a decent shot of cold heads behind the front but can we get a second low to form. I had confidence last week of the 2 wave but next week the confidence is not there at all and though it can happen the set up is different than last week.

[tron777]

I think it's low confidence forecast for that Thurs / Fri system next week. One low and we know it'll be rain maybe ending as flakes. With two lows it'll be rain with the first one then wintry weather on the backside of the boundary wherever it stalls. GEFS still look decent with the two low idea. Overnight GFS and CMC have backed off. Euro has heavy rain Thurs and Fri both. Last time, we had a lot of cold air nearby. We'll have to see about this one since the AO and NAO are positive as you said. However, we've got that monster ridge tucked in close to the West coast so troughs aren't allowed to linger out there very long and when the SE ridge tries to pop, it keeps getting beat down. So any long range warm up, should also be taken with a grain of salt at this time.

[Bgoney]

THE GFS is about 8 or so hrs away from phasing the northern shortwave and southern sw to still give a threat for flakes SBS.

[tron777]

SnowTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/02/09/snowta ... update-29/

[tpweather]

THE GFS is about 8 or so hrs away from phasing the northern shortwave and southern sw to still give a threat for flakes SBS.

So close but yet so far.Nice trend though and just need that front to slow down another few hours. My guess is we are going to see an uptick in moisture as well with a strong southerly wind on Friday my guess mid 50's are possible. Just to add a little bit to this post. Funny how last week the models were showing this energy in the southeast and showed a good sign there would be a storm. The problem was the closer it got to that time period it kept the energy lighter and lighter. Today we are just a couple of days away and boom models are coming back big time with this system. That is why models can be such a pain at times and we still have so much further to go with modeling and again we may never get to even 75p/c correct has mother nature always wins these battles.

[tron777]

I'm going with the idea that the snow will be over East KY and WV for SBS. I hope I am wrong but that's been the trend I've been seeing.

[Trevor]

Here’s a nice comparison for Dallas from former Cincy TV Met Pete Delkus. No competition obviously. What they went through last Feb was probably a once in a generational or even lifetime type deal.

[tron777]

Pete Delkus is probably the best Met Channel 9 ever had since the days of Bob Alan. You have to be old to know who he was.

[tron777]

12Z GFS brings in 0.25" of rain for Friday's system so that's a little juicer then my forecast. The front continues to stall across SE KY for the SBS system. Swing and a miss to the SE is what I continue to see on this one.

[Bgoney]

Keeps the SBS event progged just to our SE interesting though. Stronger sharper northern wave improvement , especiall y for the coast, need the southern wave to slow down more for us.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon Les and you had the temp better for today than I did. Looks like we should reach 50 before the front moves through and winds are changing to the west around Indy already so a few more hours before we start to cool down. Still working on the weekend forecast