Absolute Vorticity

Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
200 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...FELICIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE...
...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...15.2N 117.6W
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

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We've also got another wave off of the Mexican Coast that has a high chance of development in the next few days.

FELICIA is now up to 90 mph and the next wave has a 90% chance of development.

Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
800 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...FELICIA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...
...NOW A STRONG CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...15.0N 121.6W
ABOUT 940 MI...1510 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

Felicia now up to 130 mph this evening. The Mexican Disturbance is on the cusp of becoming the next TD.

Got a 70% chance of something developing in the far eastern Pacific, almost over into the Central Pacific basin:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

We have a new wave right now in the Central portion of the East Pac that has a 50% chance of development.

We have 2 waves now in the East Pac. Both pose no threat to land and both have 70-80% chances of development.

Should be relatively quiet in the Atlantic/GOM for another 2 maybe 3 weeks .

Hurricane Hilda has winds of 80 mph moving WNW at 8. This one is likely to not bother anyone. Behind it is TD 10E with winds of 35 mph and this one is likely to also get named.

Hilda is back to a TS with winds of 70 mph. We also have TD Ignacio with winds of 35 off the coast. Finally, way out in the Central Pac basin, we have a tropical wave that has a high chance of development. A busy East Pac continues...

Hilda is barely alive with winds of 40 mph. TS Jimena has winds of 40 also moving NW at 6 and not bothering a soul.

We have a high chance of development (80%) with a wave off the Mexican Coast. That should become the next named system soon.

In the Central Pacific, a tropical wave located well SW of Hawaii has a 30% chance of development.

TS Kevin is out there now and another disturbance behind him, that is likely to get a name.

TS Kevin with winds of 45 mph along with TD 12E which should become our next named system off of Mexico.

In addition to TS Kevin, we now have TS Linda with winds of 50 mph moving W at 9.

Kevin is barely a weak TS now. Linda has winds of 65 mph and is soon to become a hurricane!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep2.s ... t#contents

Kevin is now fading away... down to a TD and continuing to weaken.

Linda now has winds of 70 mph and will become a hurricane today. A Cat 2 is possible in the next few days with this system. No land impacts are expected right now.

Hurricane Linda has winds of 75 mph now moving WNW at 9.

Linda has winds of 90 mph moving WNW at 13 this morning.

Linda is now up to 105!

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 16.9N 111.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 17.6N 113.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 18.4N 115.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 18.8N 118.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 18.8N 120.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 18.6N 122.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 18.2N 124.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 17.5N 128.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 18.5N 132.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

Linda looks to be maxing out today with winds of 125 right now moving WNW at 13.

Linda peaked yesterday I believe arounds 130 or 135.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...LINDA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...
...HEADING DUE WEST OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 119.2W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Nothing else out there but Linda... she continues to weaken, down to 90 this morning.

12z GFS looks to take the remnants of Grace in Mexico after landfall #2 and reorganize as a new storm in the E PAC for early to mid next week!

Looks like Linda is going to get the N Hawaiian Islands as a TD.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep2.s ... t#contents