Absolute Vorticity

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 01, 2021 8:21 am Great posts - and you def won't see this advertised on the MSM. Maybe we can finally cash in on a good winter here in the OV.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 01, 2021 8:34 am

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 01, 2021 8:21 am Great posts - and you def won't see this advertised on the MSM. Maybe we can finally cash in on a good winter here in the OV.

But I did hear that msnbc noted the a place in North Dakota was 2 degrees above their normal high yesterday and if this keeps up they will not have any oceanfront by the year 2030.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 01, 2021 8:37 am Les my problem is if you are going to report the warmth then you must report the cold as well. Just makes them look silly

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 7:21 pm Now that is a gorgeous pic right there! Glad you found it JP! Hopefully within the next month or so, we will see our first flakes here.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 01, 2021 12:13 pm Models are backing off on the heavier rains that we were seeing in the data. The timing looks similar but the upper low / cut off low maybe a little too far to our south to put us in the best action. Sunday is still the wettest looking day and again Thursday of next week with small chances in between. I was going with an inch of rain thru Monday as you all know but I may actually need to back it down to 1/2" totals instead the way the data has been trending.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 01, 2021 3:26 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 01, 2021 12:13 pm Models are backing off on the heavier rains that we were seeing in the data. The timing looks similar but the upper low / cut off low maybe a little too far to our south to put us in the best action. Sunday is still the wettest looking day and again Thursday of next week with small chances in between. I was going with an inch of rain thru Monday as you all know but I may actually need to back it down to 1/2" totals instead the way the data has been trending.

Hey Les I am going with an inch especially folks who live further south. I can see towards Dayton and Columbus to see lower totals but I am sticking with the original total we talked about. My main problem is after Sunday and where the upper low goes and how long does it stay around. I have seen models really miss on these and not only placement but how long the low stays around.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 01, 2021 3:36 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 01, 2021 3:26 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 01, 2021 12:13 pm Models are backing off on the heavier rains that we were seeing in the data. The timing looks similar but the upper low / cut off low maybe a little too far to our south to put us in the best action. Sunday is still the wettest looking day and again Thursday of next week with small chances in between. I was going with an inch of rain thru Monday as you all know but I may actually need to back it down to 1/2" totals instead the way the data has been trending.

Hey Les I am going with an inch especially folks who live further south. I can see towards Dayton and Columbus to see lower totals but I am sticking with the original total we talked about. My main problem is after Sunday and where the upper low goes and how long does it stay around. I have seen models really miss on these and not only placement but how long the low stays around.

One thing to keep in mind is the strong blocking ridge. I wonder if the models are picking up on that, thus keeping this system a little further south then originally projected. This system will be a slow mover due to the blocking ridge over the Great Lakes and Canada but also, because of this ridge, this system can only come so far north too. Just a thought as to why the models have trended with less QPF. That doesn't mean the models are right but meteorologically speaking, that might be the reason why.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 01, 2021 3:48 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 01, 2021 3:36 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 01, 2021 3:26 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 01, 2021 12:13 pm Models are backing off on the heavier rains that we were seeing in the data. The timing looks similar but the upper low / cut off low maybe a little too far to our south to put us in the best action. Sunday is still the wettest looking day and again Thursday of next week with small chances in between. I was going with an inch of rain thru Monday as you all know but I may actually need to back it down to 1/2" totals instead the way the data has been trending.

Hey Les I am going with an inch especially folks who live further south. I can see towards Dayton and Columbus to see lower totals but I am sticking with the original total we talked about. My main problem is after Sunday and where the upper low goes and how long does it stay around. I have seen models really miss on these and not only placement but how long the low stays around.

One thing to keep in mind is the strong blocking ridge. I wonder if the models are picking up on that, thus keeping this system a little further south then originally projected. This system will be a slow mover due to the blocking ridge over the Great Lakes and Canada but also, because of this ridge, this system can only come so far north too. Just a thought as to why the models have trended with less QPF. That doesn't mean the models are right but meteorologically speaking, that might be the reason why.

That is the exact reason I believe totals are lower but I still believe enough moisture should make it up to the river to give most folks south of the river around 1 inch and maybe a little more in spots. Heading north towards I-70 is where I can see less in rainfall and sometimes that ridging may be strong and folks in that area gets much less. Fun to start forecasting in October.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 7:21 pm Now that is a gorgeous pic right there! Glad you found it JP! Hopefully within the next month or so, we will see our first flakes here.

Trevor wrote: ↑Sat Oct 02, 2021 9:48 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 7:21 pm Now that is a gorgeous pic right there! Glad you found it JP! Hopefully within the next month or so, we will see our first flakes here.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Oct 02, 2021 3:59 pm Back in town and feels nice outside. What happens overnight with the jet is the key to my forecast. How strong does it get will determine how much rainfall we get. I still believe it will ramp up and expecting an inch or so near and south of the river by late Sunday. Then the upper low will give us headaches for much of the week and trying to guess when,where and how much rainfall we get is hard to judge.