Rocktober 2021 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Great posts - and you def won't see this advertised on the MSM. Maybe we can finally cash in on a good winter here in the OV.

But I did hear that msnbc noted the a place in North Dakota was 2 degrees above their normal high yesterday and if this keeps up they will not have any oceanfront by the year 2030.

[tron777]

Great posts - and you def won't see this advertised on the MSM. Maybe we can finally cash in on a good winter here in the OV.

But I did hear that msnbc noted the a place in North Dakota was 2 degrees above their normal high yesterday and if this keeps up they will not have any oceanfront by the year 2030.

They were probably all over that 100 degree high temp in Dickinson, ND which happened the other day.

[tpweather]

Les my problem is if you are going to report the warmth then you must report the cold as well. Just makes them look silly

[tron777]

Les my problem is if you are going to report the warmth then you must report the cold as well. Just makes them look silly

I agree. It's the same double standard that they always use. Makes me sick!

[young pup]

Now that is a gorgeous pic right there! Glad you found it JP! Hopefully within the next month or so, we will see our first flakes here.

Thanks to fb.

[tron777]

Models are backing off on the heavier rains that we were seeing in the data. The timing looks similar but the upper low / cut off low maybe a little too far to our south to put us in the best action. Sunday is still the wettest looking day and again Thursday of next week with small chances in between. I was going with an inch of rain thru Monday as you all know but I may actually need to back it down to 1/2" totals instead the way the data has been trending.

[tpweather]

Models are backing off on the heavier rains that we were seeing in the data. The timing looks similar but the upper low / cut off low maybe a little too far to our south to put us in the best action. Sunday is still the wettest looking day and again Thursday of next week with small chances in between. I was going with an inch of rain thru Monday as you all know but I may actually need to back it down to 1/2" totals instead the way the data has been trending.

Hey Les I am going with an inch especially folks who live further south. I can see towards Dayton and Columbus to see lower totals but I am sticking with the original total we talked about. My main problem is after Sunday and where the upper low goes and how long does it stay around. I have seen models really miss on these and not only placement but how long the low stays around.

[tron777]

Models are backing off on the heavier rains that we were seeing in the data. The timing looks similar but the upper low / cut off low maybe a little too far to our south to put us in the best action. Sunday is still the wettest looking day and again Thursday of next week with small chances in between. I was going with an inch of rain thru Monday as you all know but I may actually need to back it down to 1/2" totals instead the way the data has been trending.

Hey Les I am going with an inch especially folks who live further south. I can see towards Dayton and Columbus to see lower totals but I am sticking with the original total we talked about. My main problem is after Sunday and where the upper low goes and how long does it stay around. I have seen models really miss on these and not only placement but how long the low stays around.

One thing to keep in mind is the strong blocking ridge. I wonder if the models are picking up on that, thus keeping this system a little further south then originally projected. This system will be a slow mover due to the blocking ridge over the Great Lakes and Canada but also, because of this ridge, this system can only come so far north too. Just a thought as to why the models have trended with less QPF. That doesn't mean the models are right but meteorologically speaking, that might be the reason why.

[tpweather]

Models are backing off on the heavier rains that we were seeing in the data. The timing looks similar but the upper low / cut off low maybe a little too far to our south to put us in the best action. Sunday is still the wettest looking day and again Thursday of next week with small chances in between. I was going with an inch of rain thru Monday as you all know but I may actually need to back it down to 1/2" totals instead the way the data has been trending.

Hey Les I am going with an inch especially folks who live further south. I can see towards Dayton and Columbus to see lower totals but I am sticking with the original total we talked about. My main problem is after Sunday and where the upper low goes and how long does it stay around. I have seen models really miss on these and not only placement but how long the low stays around.

One thing to keep in mind is the strong blocking ridge. I wonder if the models are picking up on that, thus keeping this system a little further south then originally projected. This system will be a slow mover due to the blocking ridge over the Great Lakes and Canada but also, because of this ridge, this system can only come so far north too. Just a thought as to why the models have trended with less QPF. That doesn't mean the models are right but meteorologically speaking, that might be the reason why.

That is the exact reason I believe totals are lower but I still believe enough moisture should make it up to the river to give most folks south of the river around 1 inch and maybe a little more in spots. Heading north towards I-70 is where I can see less in rainfall and sometimes that ridging may be strong and folks in that area gets much less. Fun to start forecasting in October.

[tron777]

Models are backing off on the heavier rains that we were seeing in the data. The timing looks similar but the upper low / cut off low maybe a little too far to our south to put us in the best action. Sunday is still the wettest looking day and again Thursday of next week with small chances in between. I was going with an inch of rain thru Monday as you all know but I may actually need to back it down to 1/2" totals instead the way the data has been trending.

Hey Les I am going with an inch especially folks who live further south. I can see towards Dayton and Columbus to see lower totals but I am sticking with the original total we talked about. My main problem is after Sunday and where the upper low goes and how long does it stay around. I have seen models really miss on these and not only placement but how long the low stays around.

One thing to keep in mind is the strong blocking ridge. I wonder if the models are picking up on that, thus keeping this system a little further south then originally projected. This system will be a slow mover due to the blocking ridge over the Great Lakes and Canada but also, because of this ridge, this system can only come so far north too. Just a thought as to why the models have trended with less QPF. That doesn't mean the models are right but meteorologically speaking, that might be the reason why.

That is the exact reason I believe totals are lower but I still believe enough moisture should make it up to the river to give most folks south of the river around 1 inch and maybe a little more in spots. Heading north towards I-70 is where I can see less in rainfall and sometimes that ridging may be strong and folks in that area gets much less. Fun to start forecasting in October.

Yes Sir Tim... the first of what will be many headaches coming our way for the next 4-6 months.

[tron777]

78 here and at CVG with dews in the U40s. Pretty darn nice for early Rocktober. Enjoy and take advantage folks. Eventually we'll pay the price. We always do. Hopefully it's in the form of snow this winter.

[Trevor]

Now that is a gorgeous pic right there! Glad you found it JP! Hopefully within the next month or so, we will see our first flakes here.

[tron777]

Glad the rain held off here locally to allow me to finish power washing the siding on the house and shed today. Using a combo of bleach and Joe Max cleaner and some water, it is a good combo to kill that algae and black crap from the jets that fly over our hood out of CVG. Should last a good 2-3 years before I'll have to do it again.

Waiting on the rain basically that is currently over ILL and IN. Seeing some sun breaks too so wonder if we can get a little thunder to pop later this afternoon. Nothing severe of course just some noise and lighting to go along with the rain. We've got 500-1500 J/KG of CAPE over Cincy and points south / east. More the further SE you go. Virtually no CAPE to the north of Cincy, So we've got the best shot south of the river for some t-storms just to spice things up this afternoon. If that happens, maybe an inch can occur thru Monday as I originally thought. We'll see... I still would be cool with a half inch.

Then we deal with the cut off low all of next week. Highest chances for rain Mon, Wed and Thurs. Lower on Tues and Fri. GFS fantasy range today had another cut off low for Mid Oct. Lovely...

[tpweather]

Back in town and feels nice outside. What happens overnight with the jet is the key to my forecast. How strong does it get will determine how much rainfall we get. I still believe it will ramp up and expecting an inch or so near and south of the river by late Sunday. Then the upper low will give us headaches for much of the week and trying to guess when,where and how much rainfall we get is hard to judge.

[young pup]

Now that is a gorgeous pic right there! Glad you found it JP! Hopefully within the next month or so, we will see our first flakes here.

LOL.

[young pup]

Getting a nice downpour here. Feels tropical. I got the window open and it smells fantastic.

[tron777]

Back in town and feels nice outside. What happens overnight with the jet is the key to my forecast. How strong does it get will determine how much rainfall we get. I still believe it will ramp up and expecting an inch or so near and south of the river by late Sunday. Then the upper low will give us headaches for much of the week and trying to guess when,where and how much rainfall we get is hard to judge.

Welcome home, Tim! Glad you're back for some Rocktober weather tracking! Rain is taking its ole sweet time moving in which is fine but ready to receive here.

[MVWxObserver]

My gauge picked up less than a tenth for Sat.

[tron777]

Good morning to you all! Been a rainy overnight / morning for some, but not for all. Along and SE of I-71 has seen the most. NW of there very little. CVG checking in with 0.38" so far. 0.55" at the Boone Co mesonet site and 0.44" here. A good start to the original 1" call thru Monday. We may end up getting that today. I've been watching convection over IN coming our way for later on so some thunder cannot be ruled out. Look for on and off rain for today tapering off tonight. Good day to watch football!

[Bgoney]

From the BDTA( But Don't Tell Anyone) News Dept



The average temperature at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station between April and September, a frigid minus-78 degrees (minus-61 Celsius), was the coldest on record, dating back to 1957. This was 4.5 degrees lower than the most recent 30-year average.

We first learned of this record through a tweet from Stefano Di Battista, who has published research on Antarctic temperatures. The legitimacy of Di Battista’s information was confirmed by Richard Cullather, a research scientist at NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office.

The temperature averaged over September was also the coldest on record at South Pole, wrote David Bromwich, a polar researcher at Ohio State University, in an email.

The extreme cold over Antarctica helped push sea ice levels surrounding the continent to their fifth-highest level on record in August, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

[cloudy72]

0.13” here so far

[tron777]

A bit of a lull for the Metro right now but that won't last if you look just to the SW of LOU. Another batch with some possible thunder on the way.

[Bgoney]

.65" total so far

[tron777]

Next slug of rain pushing in from the SW now. Heaviest still is going to target our SE Crew.

[tron777]

Hearing some thunder now to go along with the rain.