Absolute Vorticity

Great to 'see' you, Rich and Josh!

Currently 77 here in Greenville and progged for around 52 Thurs morning.

I think I was in heaven today. Absolutely B E A U T I F U L. Not one time did I feel like I was ready to quit working. Nice refreshing breeze, great temps and awesome Sunshine.

It was awesome indeed! Totally agree! 80 for my high today. Dews are finally dropping into the U50s down here. Let's see what the next few nights bring and how low into the 50s we go, As usual, city centers will struggle and rural areas will drop faster.

The NE is a disaster, worst since Sandy and probably worse for inland areas . Tropical moisture meets concrete jungle and concrete Jungle always loses. Seems like the "I" storms are historically bad

Some hard to comprehend amounts coming out of the NE. One that is fascinating to me is many official sites recorded .50" amounts in a 5 min span with the top one being .66" , IN 5 MINUTES. Put that in your pipe and smoke it!!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 02, 2021 5:50 am Some hard to comprehend amounts coming out of the NE. One that is fascinating to me is many official sites recorded .50" amounts in a 5 min span with the top one being .66" , IN 5 MINUTES. Put that in your pipe and smoke it!!

Saw some videos of the NYC subways being flooded and the US Open Tennis match too. The retractable roof didn't stop it. Bad tornadoes in MD as well.

For us... AWESOME is the weather word for the day here. Watching for that slight chance for showers storms late Sat / Sat night / Sun morning time frame. Just depends on the timing of this front. Again, not a wash out and some of you won't see anything. Temps: U70s to L80s with lows mainly in the 50s to L60s.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:50 pm

Weather101 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:26 pm Hey guys, glad to be here in the new forum! Looking sharp! We are hoping to track a cold and snowy winter in the OV this year! ❄ ❄ ❄

Best,
Rich, Mandy, and Josh

SWC Expeditions
SWC Forecast Center

Welcome back guys! Thanks for signing up. I see Josh created his own account also which is fantastic! Look around and feel free to provide any feed back. We've got some cool new features too. Attaching images is a snap now and this forum runs way better! We're ready to rock n roll this winter!

Great to have you guys back. To have more folks who are weather lovers makes this site even better.

56 here this morning... a gorgeous sunrise incoming...

LOL...0Z Euro still wants to give CVG an inch of rain Sat / Sun time frame with that weak front. I don't recall any other model doing that, just scattered activity. Euro could be "on something" too.

56 here as well!

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 02, 2021 6:43 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 02, 2021 5:50 am Some hard to comprehend amounts coming out of the NE. One that is fascinating to me is many official sites recorded .50" amounts in a 5 min span with the top one being .66" , IN 5 MINUTES. Put that in your pipe and smoke it!!

Saw some videos of the NYC subways being flooded and the US Open Tennis match too. The retractable roof didn't stop it. Bad tornadoes in MD as well.

That is wild to say the least. I have no ideal how much I got in 5 or 10 min spans but my guess their were times getting close to that amount . Such a tropical air mass over the past month and of course to equal that out the pacific ocean has been very quiet compared to normal. I would put that in my pipe but I gave that up in the 70's

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 02, 2021 7:54 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 02, 2021 6:43 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 02, 2021 5:50 am Some hard to comprehend amounts coming out of the NE. One that is fascinating to me is many official sites recorded .50" amounts in a 5 min span with the top one being .66" , IN 5 MINUTES. Put that in your pipe and smoke it!!

Saw some videos of the NYC subways being flooded and the US Open Tennis match too. The retractable roof didn't stop it. Bad tornadoes in MD as well.

That is wild to say the least. I have no ideal how much I got in 5 or 10 min spans but my guess their were times getting close to that amount . Such a tropical air mass over the past month and of course to equal that out the pacific ocean has been very quiet compared to normal. I would put that in my pipe but I gave that up in the 70's

Was looking at a surface ob map and dews across the OV range from about 49 to about 56 degrees. Just about perfect! Should be a fantastic C of C weather type day for us. Same deal for tomorrow. Hope all can get outside and enjoy this much more comfortable brand of air.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 02, 2021 7:18 am LOL...0Z Euro still wants to give CVG an inch of rain Sat / Sun time frame with that weak front. I don't recall any other model doing that, just scattered activity. Euro could be "on something" too.

Looks like the NAM may be trying to cook something up on Saturday as well....

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 02, 2021 8:08 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 02, 2021 7:18 am LOL...0Z Euro still wants to give CVG an inch of rain Sat / Sun time frame with that weak front. I don't recall any other model doing that, just scattered activity. Euro could be "on something" too.

Looks like the NAM may be trying to cook something up on Saturday as well....

NAM looks to weaken the storms as they move in where the Euro kept them going. To your point... they both have higher chances for rain then the GFS for sure. I'm just not quite ready to bite yet. Curious to see how the moisture return is on Sat ahead of the front. We've got a dry air mass in place going in instead of it being super humid.

From Scotty D... With CVG dropping into the 50s overnight, this was the first time for the site to do so since 8/2. One of the cooler spots this morning was Leesburg, OH with a low of 50!

12Z GFS starting to up it's game for that next front. Maybe the Euro is leading the way for a change? 0.34" at CVG from the GFS. This better matches up with the NAM. Still not as wet as the last couple of Euro runs though so it could be overdone. Bottom line, I think we may need to increase POPS a little more for sometime late Sat afternoon thru Sun morning. Anyone got any thoughts?

Ida NE rains in the same ballpark as Floyd and Irene, so not sure where their getting a 500 year weather event

Quick long range thoughts... So we're right on the money with the first 7 to perhaps 10 days of the month being at or below avg. Now, I am seeing some signs today of a warming trend starting towards the end of next week. It looks like we get a nice trough to dive into the Central US. The warm up will last a few days. Then I think we get a front to knock us back down. Then after mid month, a big time warm up as a stronger and deeper trough dives into the Rockies to bring some early season snow to BC Canada and the Rockies of MT and part of Wyoming. Last few GFS runs in the fantasy range have shown that.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 02, 2021 1:41 pm Ida NE rains in the same ballpark as Floyd and Irene, so not sure where their getting a 500 year weather event

Pitiful isn't it? The global warming and climate change fear mongers continue to press their terrible agenda. Glad we have enough sense on here to do this:

12Z Euro has 0.44" for CVG now with the next front. Much more down to earth. Starting to see some good model agreement. I am officially raising POPS for CVG Land late Sat ending Sun morning for the time period. Going with 60% coverage at this time or likely POPS.

78 here and at CVG... simply awesome out there! ILN has raised POPS into the likely category now for Sat night into Sunday. Glad to see they are seeing what I'm seeing.

It's been a while since I've done one of these, but I had some time this evening so here you go:

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 02, 2021 2:17 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 02, 2021 1:41 pm Ida NE rains in the same ballpark as Floyd and Irene, so not sure where their getting a 500 year weather event

Pitiful isn't it? The global warming and climate change fear mongers continue to press their terrible agenda. Glad we have enough sense on here to do this:

Yes, that political grifting via Chucky, DeLousy, and the woman governor who replaced killer Cuomo at the press conference today. So sad that side of the aisle has NO concept of the natural cycle of the atmospheric conditions and the earth balancing out.