Absolute Vorticity

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 03, 2021 8:40 am Looks like there were actually a couple of upper 40s this morning over in eastern Ohio (Cambridge and Ravenna)!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 03, 2021 11:03 am So the 12z NAM fits into our forecast here perfectly. Has maybe a few hundredths of an inch on Wednesday for lucky souls, however the unusual thing that will happen is any cell will move from SE to NW due to the upper low influence.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Aug 03, 2021 12:54 pm We have yet another current winter like patter occurrence going on . Western ridge is to far east resulting in troughing favoring the coast and low pressure skirting up the mid Atlantic and taking almost all the moisture with it and away from the OV.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Aug 03, 2021 12:53 pm Good Afternoon and another beautiful day though a few clouds which happens quite often in the summer time only to be replaced with sun after 2pm or so. Chances of rain are slim and only a few folks will get lucky the remainder of the week. Concerning drought and folks get worked up over nothing because even no rain for 2 months can cause short term droughts but that is normal for nature especially in August. Normal rainfall is probably around 3.25 inches but there are many years where that total is below 1 inch and some years with a decent tropical system or two we get over 5 inches. We have been well above normal in terms of rainfall for several years and probably the only bad thing is we have much more in the way of vegetation to water because of all the growth. Growing up the only folks really worried about droughts were the farmers and they understood how to deal with it better than most folks. No worries back then of lawn care because few folks had that kind of money to spend so the weeds made it look greener.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 03, 2021 12:45 pm Hopefully the GFS signals of more action next week come to fruition.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 03, 2021 2:18 pm Dew is now down to 49 at CVG and it's 8/3! I am impressed by this.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Aug 03, 2021 4:15 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 03, 2021 2:18 pm Dew is now down to 49 at CVG and it's 8/3! I am impressed by this.

Must be pretty cold up above with the clouds staying around this long. More like an early September day. Can we have this every summer day.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 03, 2021 7:46 pm Just a little tidbit for winter lovers out there. The new August QBO reading is out. Double digit negatives now for the QBO for June at 30mb.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indi ... .u30.index

QBO for May 2021: 0.31 July: -6.93 August: -13.17

It is crashing folks! Oddly, 95-96' had a similar flip...just a bit later. 09-10 and 14-15 also have a QBO that flipped almost exactly at the same time as this summer's. Those were good winters. However this winter a second year Nina is becoming very likely but will it be in the drivers seat? Chances are it'll be ENSO COLD Neutral or a Weak Nina at best. Typically, second year Nina's are not as strong as the first year. It is only August, but already seeing some interesting signals emerge.



ssta.daily.current.png



You can see the La Nina developing, but a warm North Pacific certainly grabs my eye as well as the warmth around Greenland in the North Atlantic. A by-product of all the ridging this summer / blocking? We shall see if it can continue and what impacts the developing second year cool ENSO event may have. Watch the crashing QBO as well. When does it bottom out and begin to rise again?

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 04, 2021 7:51 am That was an awfully good winter for the East Coast and OV Tim. 95-96 still ranks in the top 5 for snowfall at CVG and Jan of 96 was great the first week of the month with the big Blizz that got everyone in the Eastern US. 27" for the month total. Had a nice ice storm in Feb of 96 and 8.4" of snow in March of 96. I'd take it again.