Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jul 01, 2021 11:26 am gfs_T2ma_samer_2.pnggfs_T2ma_samer_fh12-144.gif


In incognito weather,,, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bolivia, and BRAZIL, a much larger area than the NW , have seen record breaking cold , freezes and snow recently. Major crop losses in these countries to coffee, sugarcane and corn

Perfect and once again mother nature is balancing out the earth so we are able to live on this wonderful planet

A steady light rain here... just what the Dr ordered for my hood. Looks like the back edge is coming into the region now. This should end the steadier rains from NW to SE but scattered re-development is possible until the front clears this evening.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jul 01, 2021 12:07 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jul 01, 2021 11:26 am gfs_T2ma_samer_2.pnggfs_T2ma_samer_fh12-144.gif


In incognito weather,,, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bolivia, and BRAZIL, a much larger area than the NW , have seen record breaking cold , freezes and snow recently. Major crop losses in these countries to coffee, sugarcane and corn

Perfect and once again mother nature is balancing out the earth so we are able to live on this wonderful planet

Perfectly stated gents.

Have picked up 3.01” for event total here, 0.91” since midnight. Just had a heavy round come through to push me above the 3” mark. Sounds like most are getting something though some more than enough with some localized flooding issues!

Looking forward to pleasant temps over the next couple of days!

1.83" as of 2pm at CVG

So far event total, 4.25 inches. I had one inch at dark last night. Seeing restoration trucks here and there in Hyde Park.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 01, 2021 8:06 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jul 01, 2021 7:53 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 01, 2021 6:46 am

Tomorrow and Sat are awesome with temps warming up by Sunday. The humidity is back in full force next week along with 90 degree temps once again. We'll have to see how rain chances look next week once we see how TS Elsa impacts the overall pattern.

First half of July still looking like a fairly normal period temp wise. No big heat waves for the OV with timely cool fronts expected for relief from the high humidity

Exactly! It's just a continuation of the current pattern. A few 90s then we cool down for a bit. Wash, rinse, and repeat.

Just took a gander at most of the long range models, EU weeklies, JMA, CFS, and they all look similar in that the latter part of July continues with the same pattern. With a dominant ridge in the west , a continued dry northern plains, ample moisture for midwest/OV/TV which probably means NW flow aloft, a continued coolish southern US, and a nice SW monsoonal season

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jul 01, 2021 3:01 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 01, 2021 8:06 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jul 01, 2021 7:53 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 01, 2021 6:46 am

Tomorrow and Sat are awesome with temps warming up by Sunday. The humidity is back in full force next week along with 90 degree temps once again. We'll have to see how rain chances look next week once we see how TS Elsa impacts the overall pattern.

First half of July still looking like a fairly normal period temp wise. No big heat waves for the OV with timely cool fronts expected for relief from the high humidity

Exactly! It's just a continuation of the current pattern. A few 90s then we cool down for a bit. Wash, rinse, and repeat.

Just took a gander at most of the long range models, EU weeklies, JMA, CFS, and they all look similar in that the latter part of July continues with the same pattern. With a dominant ridge in the west , a continued dry northern plains, ample moisture for midwest/OV/TV which probably means NW flow aloft, a continued coolish southern US, and a nice SW monsoonal season

The new 12Z Euro run this afternoon is very supportive of this. Not everyday next week but at least half of the days next week, features a chance for t-storms with several cold fronts coming in. Chances ramp up by the following weekend too. Probably one of the more active Euro runs I've seen in a while.

The bulk of the rain is in our S / SE counties now. But... we still have to wait until the cold front passes before we are good to go. Look for scattered showers / t-showers with locally heavy downpours thru the evening hours. These will be widely scattered so some will see a little more action, and others nothing.

As discussed previously... Fri and Sat are AWESOME with the warmth and humidity slowly returning by Sunday and esp as we head into next week. T-storm chances TBD once we get a little closer. We've also got TS Elsa on our plates too that we're covering in the Tropics Forum.

Wed-Thurs combo event total from my gauge is 1.60"

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 01, 2021 6:46 am Good morning and Happy July 1st to you all! Heavy rain for sure in a lot of places with the heaviest totals coming in N of the river. Saw a few 3-6" totals! But then you have ILN only getting 0.30" So we still have a few have and have not's out there. 1.56" event total so far at CVG as of 6am. I've had over an inch and half here as well. The Dome finally broke open last night. Still pouring here this morning. Radar looking active for a good chunk of the morning with the action becoming more scattered this afternoon. Once the front passes this evening, we are good to go!

Tomorrow and Sat are awesome with temps warming up by Sunday. The humidity is back in full force next week along with 90 degree temps once again. We'll have to see how rain chances look next week once we see how TS Elsa impacts the overall pattern.

Hi Les,

I saw on WHIO7 where Greenville had an area of the city that picked up 5.14! Not sure what section though.

Last night must have been quite a sight in some parts of the Tri-state with the flooding!

I see a tornado warning in Marion County Ohio. Those cells that are away from the main precip sometimes can produce a tornado. Not sure if we have anybody on the forum that lives in that area.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Jul 01, 2021 6:38 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 01, 2021 6:46 am Good morning and Happy July 1st to you all! Heavy rain for sure in a lot of places with the heaviest totals coming in N of the river. Saw a few 3-6" totals! But then you have ILN only getting 0.30" So we still have a few have and have not's out there. 1.56" event total so far at CVG as of 6am. I've had over an inch and half here as well. The Dome finally broke open last night. Still pouring here this morning. Radar looking active for a good chunk of the morning with the action becoming more scattered this afternoon. Once the front passes this evening, we are good to go!

Tomorrow and Sat are awesome with temps warming up by Sunday. The humidity is back in full force next week along with 90 degree temps once again. We'll have to see how rain chances look next week once we see how TS Elsa impacts the overall pattern.

Hi Les,

I saw on WHIO7 where Greenville had an area of the city that picked up 5.14! Not sure what section though.

Last night must have been quite a sight in some parts of the Tri-state with the flooding!

I saw some location in Delaware Co Ohio picked up over 4" of rain in just an hours time. Rainfall rates in some areas were 2-3" per hour on avg.

Nice break coming with some nice temps but it will be short-lived. With the tropics getting busy in this part of the world tropical moisture will flow in this part of the world. Add this to some heat from the west and good very easy see a repeat next week. Most of the severe weather this go around had been very heavy rains but next week we need to watch once again to see if we get a repeat or will the severe threat get a little busier. Getting several 90 degree days in a row will be harder to achieve though like we saw a few days ago we can get hot and for a few days. Will this pattern break mid-month and it is a toss up because the tropics if they continue will keep moisture high in our area and make it tough for a heat wave but if the tropics settle down some we need to see if some of the western heat will try and make a longer stay.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jul 01, 2021 7:17 pm I see a tornado warning in Marion County Ohio. Those cells that are away from the main precip sometimes can produce a tornado. Not sure if we have anybody on the forum that lives in that area.

That's a decent looking line of storms for the Columbus area too. Curious to read JP's post later on. Widely scattered action for the rest of us until the front passes. Those lovely dew points should start coming in overnight. I-70 Crew will first feel that lovely air.

58 for Fri morning, 53 Sat morning, and 61 for Sun morning here in Greenville.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jul 01, 2021 7:29 pm Nice break coming with some nice temps but it will be short-lived. With the tropics getting busy in this part of the world tropical moisture will flow in this part of the world. Add this to some heat from the west and good very easy see a repeat next week. Most of the severe weather this go around had been very heavy rains but next week we need to watch once again to see if we get a repeat or will the severe threat get a little busier. Getting several 90 degree days in a row will be harder to achieve though like we saw a few days ago we can get hot and for a few days. Will this pattern break mid-month and it is a toss up because the tropics if they continue will keep moisture high in our area and make it tough for a heat wave but if the tropics settle down some we need to see if some of the western heat will try and make a longer stay.

Hey Tim...

I'm kind of with Bgoney here. Just not seeing the pattern coming together for sustained heat and sustained dryness. Yes, we can always string together a few 90s which has been happening, but when the heat tries to stay, there's always t-storms around and a front coming thru to knock us back down (like Fri and Sat for example) Then we warm up again with 2 or 3 90s possible like we talked about for next week, but I see more fronts and chances for storms thereafter regardless of what Elsa does. The heat dome looks to remain out West for the foreseeable future. Can we turn it around and get some big heat later in July or in August? Always a possibility, but for now, I don't see anything changing to be honest thru mid July at the very least. You and I both thought that July and Aug would turn hotter and drier. Still a chance but for July, those chances could be starting to decrease a little bit.

I don't know what was going on today, but our garage got flooded and a tree limb came down on our fence and broke it. Crazy storm.

OMG Ang! Must of have been an isolated severe storm that had a nice downburst associated with it.

64 / 61 at CVG this morning as N winds continue to pump the dry and less humid air in here. Going with the following highs at CVG / Rainfall chances for Your Holiday Weekend:

Today - 76 - 0% chance of rain
Saturday - 80 - 0%
4th of July - 88 - 20%
Monday - 90 - 30%

Then I think chances slowly continue to increase as we progress thru out next week. 90s Tues and maybe Wed although by Wed, rain chances may become too high to support the 90s. A front may pass thru on Thurs keeping Elsa away from us the way it looks attm. Next weekend looking active but the usual timing differences are there on the models.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:45 am 64 / 61 at CVG this morning as N winds continue to pump the dry and less humid air in here. Going with the following highs at CVG / Rainfall chances for Your Holiday Weekend:

Today - 76 - 0% chance of rain
Saturday - 80 - 0%
4th of July - 88 - 20%
Monday - 90 - 30%

Then I think chances slowly continue to increase as we progress thru out next week. 90s Tues and maybe Wed although by Wed, rain chances may become too high to support the 90s. A front may pass thru on Thurs keeping Elsa away from us the way it looks attm. Next weekend looking active but the usual timing differences are there on the models.

Hey Les - I like this forecast for CVG! I think N of river/I-70 on July 4 may be closer to 30% (CMH 40% pops). Will have to watch this for any firework shows that evening, although I'm thinking any popup storms would be during the daylight hours.

In Indian Hill final total was a whopping 4.50" and IMBY 2.50"

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 8:08 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:45 am 64 / 61 at CVG this morning as N winds continue to pump the dry and less humid air in here. Going with the following highs at CVG / Rainfall chances for Your Holiday Weekend:

Today - 76 - 0% chance of rain
Saturday - 80 - 0%
4th of July - 88 - 20%
Monday - 90 - 30%

Then I think chances slowly continue to increase as we progress thru out next week. 90s Tues and maybe Wed although by Wed, rain chances may become too high to support the 90s. A front may pass thru on Thurs keeping Elsa away from us the way it looks attm. Next weekend looking active but the usual timing differences are there on the models.

Hey Les - I like this forecast for CVG! I think N of river/I-70 on July 4 may be closer to 30% (CMH 40% pops). Will have to watch this for any firework shows that evening, although I'm thinking any popup storms would be during the daylight hours.

Thanks Mike! Your thoughts also look solid for the I-70 Crew and agree on the timing of that weak front moving in.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 8:15 am In Indian Hill final total was a whopping 4.50" and IMBY 2.50"

Wow! Very nice!