Page 2 of 10
Re: One - Two Punch for Next Week Feb 10-13, 2025
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2025 10:04 am
by tron777
I'll discount the 12Z NAM's swing and a miss solution. I think we'll at least see some light snow out of it. I won't put out a number yet. We have until Tuesday with the first round.
Re: One - Two Punch for Next Week Feb 10-13, 2025
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2025 10:17 am
by tron777
An inch or so for CVG 2"+ southern counties from the 12Z RGEM for Tues morning. North of the river nothing.
Re: One - Two Punch for Next Week Feb 10-13, 2025
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2025 10:27 am
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 08, 2025 10:04 am
I'll discount the 12Z NAM's swing and a miss solution. I think we'll at least see some light snow out of it. I won't put out a number yet. We have until Tuesday with the first round.
Hey Les and I agree way too early. I do believe this tells me the push of cold air coming in Sunday and Monday is colder and should push the front further south. Again I am rooting for less precip with the first system and a stronger and further south system later in the week. With the current system to our north and with it getting back to a stronger system that in itself should push the colder air south the next two days. Again nothing set in stone as we have plenty of moving parts at the moment.
So at this moment I do believe the chances are slimmer for snow and that may have shifted 75 miles further south but that means the front itself should be 75 miles south and that is a big deal in regards to the system later in the week which I thought all along was the main storm for us locally
As we know around here its not the first system that tends to benefit us but the second one where a front stalls in the northern gulf states. This could be southern Tn or northern Alabama. Plenty of warm air south of the front and if that push of cold air is as dense as I see it this could no doubt set up a decent system late week. That is also why I am worried about more in the way of frz/rain as well because that kind of warm air over a colder dense air mas is a recipe for heavier snow and accumulating ice
Will see what the models show this afternoon but my gut tells me a really nice storm late in the week and if the NAO has got to the point where its at least neutral this should enable the second storm to at least get stronger and usually bigger and stronger is slower
Re: One - Two Punch for Next Week Feb 10-13, 2025
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2025 10:32 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Feb 08, 2025 10:27 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 08, 2025 10:04 am
I'll discount the 12Z NAM's swing and a miss solution. I think we'll at least see some light snow out of it. I won't put out a number yet. We have until Tuesday with the first round.
Hey Les and I agree way too early. I do believe this tells me the push of cold air coming in Sunday and Monday is colder and should push the front further south. Again I am rooting for less precip with the first system and a stronger and further south system later in the week. With the current system to our north and with it getting back to a stronger system that in itself should push the colder air south the next two days. Again nothing set in stone as we have plenty of moving parts at the moment.
So at this moment I do believe the chances are similar for snow and that may have shifted 75 miles further south but that means the front itself should be 75 miles south and that is a big deal in regards to the system later in the week which I thought all along was the main storm for us locally
As we know around here its not the first system that tends to benefit us but the second one where a front stalls in the northern gulf states. This could be southern Tn or northern Alabama. Plenty of warm air south of the front and if that push of cold air is as dense as I see it this could no doubt set up a decent system late week. That is also why I am worried about more in the way of frz/rain as well because that kind of warm air over a colder dense air mas is a recipe for heavier snow and accumulating ice
Will see what the models show this afternoon but my gut tells me a really nice storm late in the week and if the NAO has got to the point where its at least neutral this should enable the second storm to at least get stronger and usually bigger and stronger is slower
The issue though is what we've talked about. The first wave is weak so the second one has more room to amplify. Unless the models are overdoing the SE ridge yet again (which is possible), the second system will be strong but that also means rain unfortunately. It would have been better to see a stronger first wave to cash in with both systems in this thread. I won't rule out the second system yet this far away, but the first one isn't looking too good from a QPF standpoint. Temps look fine for all snow. Due to the airmass, the time of day (Tues morning) is also favorable for accum. Lack of moisture is the only knock I have on round 1.
Re: One - Two Punch for Next Week Feb 10-13, 2025
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2025 10:39 am
by tpweather
Les no matter what happens its a forecasting nightmare at this point in time. Truly a warm/cold war next week. Should be fun no matter what happens and the system could get so strong and it does become mainly a rain event but imo somebody in the Ohio Valley is going to get a nice snow event but also some folks could end up with an ice event as well and some folks a heavy rain event. These are the kind of storms we see in Feb as we head towards spring
Re: One - Two Punch for Next Week Feb 10-13, 2025
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2025 10:42 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Feb 08, 2025 10:39 am
Les no matter what happens its a forecasting nightmare at this point in time. Truly a warm/cold war next week. Should be fun no matter what happens and the system could get so strong and it does become mainly a rain event but imo somebody in the Ohio Valley is going to get a nice snow event but also some folks could end up with an ice event as well and some folks a heavy rain event. These are the kind of storms we see in Feb as we head towards spring
I agree Tim, anything is possible for the next couple of months. We'll probably get some thunder again today as an example.
Re: One - Two Punch for Next Week Feb 10-13, 2025
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2025 10:43 am
by tpweather
Looks like the gfs is running and one item I want to look at is where the 540 line is early Tuesday as it was at one time just south of us and if that item is say in southern Kentucky this go around no doubt a trend towards a more southerly system on Tuesday.
Re: One - Two Punch for Next Week Feb 10-13, 2025
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2025 10:47 am
by tpweather
So far the gfs is out to hour 42 I believe and one item is the cold high in southern Canada. It looks like from what I can see its further south and east compared to 24 hours ago and this tells me the colder air may be the way to go. Only one piece of the puzzle and like I have mentioned before sometimes you get the 10 piece puzzle which is easy to take care of but sometimes you have the 1000 piece one and first you need to find the edges before working your way in and this can take time to complete
Re: One - Two Punch for Next Week Feb 10-13, 2025
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2025 10:51 am
by tron777
12Z GFS looks to be a bump south of the 6Z run at this early stage of the game. I agree Tim. You can also tell not only by the features (like the big high) but also the height lines too as you mentioned.
Re: One - Two Punch for Next Week Feb 10-13, 2025
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2025 10:53 am
by tpweather
One thing I always do when comparing model runs is use one from 24 hours before to see what has changed. It gives me a better ideal of what is going on. Once we get near a system then I use the short term models. No its not perfect but for me it helps me in understanding what the model may be seeing that I am missing
Re: One - Two Punch for Next Week Feb 10-13, 2025
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2025 10:54 am
by tron777
Best snows will most likely be S of I-64 now.
We still get clipped NKY, but that's about it.
Re: One - Two Punch for Next Week Feb 10-13, 2025
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2025 10:54 am
by tpweather
Les this is going to be fun and my guess before all is said and done if we differ on certain aspects it tends to end up in the middle.
Re: One - Two Punch for Next Week Feb 10-13, 2025
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2025 10:57 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Feb 08, 2025 10:54 am
Les this is going to be fun and my guess before all is said and done if we differ on certain aspects it tends to end up in the middle.
You may have brought this up earlier... but I wonder if the first storm trends so far south that it actually may help with the cold air (thermals) with the second wave? I'd sure like that instead of getting screwed by both which is the current model consensus.
Re: One - Two Punch for Next Week Feb 10-13, 2025
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2025 10:58 am
by tron777
QPF for CVG is a whopping 0.06" from wave 1 on the 12Z GFS. Too bad...
Re: One - Two Punch for Next Week Feb 10-13, 2025
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2025 10:58 am
by Bgoney
12z GFS about what the 6zEU showed for QPF Tuesday
IMG_3179.jpeg
Re: One - Two Punch for Next Week Feb 10-13, 2025
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2025 11:04 am
by tpweather
Another item is the high mid-week to our northeast is further east than 24 hours ago and this would no doubt allow southerly winds to get in here sooner.
Re: One - Two Punch for Next Week Feb 10-13, 2025
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2025 11:07 am
by Bgoney
tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Feb 08, 2025 11:04 am
Another item is the high mid-week to our northeast is further east than 24 hours ago and this would no doubt allow southerly winds to get in here sooner.
There’s a few things not looking good for midweek along with that, the trough position does us no favors
Re: One - Two Punch for Next Week Feb 10-13, 2025
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2025 11:09 am
by tron777
Nope... pretty much what I figured., You get a major cutter on Thursday on the GFS because our first system is so weak.
Re: One - Two Punch for Next Week Feb 10-13, 2025
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2025 11:34 am
by tpweather
No doubt the gfs on this run is a cutter though the cmc is still an apps runner. Which is correct and no doubt the cmc has come further north but still keeps the low to our south while the gfs has the low west of here. Which is correct and who will the Euro follow and I do believe in the past few weeks the Euro has done better after such a terrible start to the new year.
Re: One - Two Punch for Next Week Feb 10-13, 2025
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2025 11:36 am
by tron777
CMC is even rain for us.
Might have to wait until the mid gets into Phase 8 (7-10 days from now) to cash in.
Re: One - Two Punch for Next Week Feb 10-13, 2025
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2025 11:41 am
by Bgoney
Might need to alter the thread name and add the word “sucker” after the words one -two
Re: One - Two Punch for Next Week Feb 10-13, 2025
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2025 11:42 am
by tpweather
Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Feb 08, 2025 11:41 am
Might need to alter the thread name and add the word “sucker” after the words one -two
Lol never like the old sucker punch
Re: One - Two Punch for Next Week Feb 10-13, 2025
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2025 12:59 pm
by tpweather
The Euro is coming in and seems to be the strongest of the systems for the second system but not quite as far west. We always look for a departing high pressure and this helps also in trying to forecast a system coming up from the southwest. The high is stronger to the northeast but still too far east to have the perfect system. Still a nice storm for the Ohio Valley with all types of precip falling. Is there enough from the models to make a decent forecast and for me no and will wait until the current system is out of the USA. So again the 3-5 days in advance model movement and this happens often and sometimes its correct but not always.. Wait until Sunday's noon runs and hopefully somewhat clearer
Re: One - Two Sucker Punch for Next Week Feb 10-13, 2025
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2025 1:08 pm
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Feb 08, 2025 11:42 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Feb 08, 2025 11:41 am
Might need to alter the thread name and add the word “sucker” after the words one -two
Lol never like the old sucker punch
Done!
I just saw the Euro. Ugh...
Re: One - Two Sucker Punch for Next Week Feb 10-13, 2025
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2025 1:22 pm
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 08, 2025 1:08 pm
tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Feb 08, 2025 11:42 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Feb 08, 2025 11:41 am
Might need to alter the thread name and add the word “sucker” after the words one -two
Lol never like the old sucker punch
Done!
I just saw the Euro. Ugh...
Les I loved the Euro and to me it shows a decent storm with all types of precip and again over 96 hours before the second system starts going. Going to wait and yes models very seldom are able to compute snow cover to the forecast and a nice swath from the northern plans eastward and maybe some in the central plains and yes in the lower Ohio valley before the second system. The models should and I say should be closer by the noon runs on Sunday and I still want the first system weaker so this lets some of the colder air behind to go further south and I know we disagree on this item and always fun to see how we do which usually somewhere down the middle lol