Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 8:07 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 7:25 am The mean trough for at least the first half of November will be NW of us and we will see mainly above normal temps and ridging. We will see some rain from time to time too with how much TBD. That will depend on the tropics and how strong the ridge is. I am still hopeful for a change later in the month but boy oh boy, above normal temps overall for the month is pretty much a slam dunk.

Looks like we’ll be going into mid November without a killing freeze. This day and age that’s not surprising. Annual and perennial flowers look beautiful still, at least the places where I’ve seen.

I agree Bgoney and most have not received that killing freeze and only a few places that have seen the killing. Wetter conditions would have helped but with only 0.18 inches at CVG the ground is no doubt dry. Fall periods have been pushed back it seems but also spring and probably need some kind of adjustment of these two periods. Probably over the past decade this has been very common. I believe that axis of the earth may have something to do with this but much above my pay grade. As we know at times the equator that we know today has been the arctic regions and the arctic regions have been the equator. That of course is over millions of years but is the earth ever so slightly shifting the axis and I mean ever so slightly that it is almost zero but maybe enough for a shift in the timing of the patterns. Love to see in about 100 years if this has changed at all and even 1000 years to see if the change is noticeable.

Latest first freezes per the boys:

November 27th at Cincinnati and Columbus
November 25th at Dayton

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 8:47 am Latest first freezes per the boys:

November 27th at Cincinnati and Columbus
November 25th at Dayton

28-32 degrees would kill a percentage of flowering plants of the tender variety, to halt the rest you need 24-27 degrees . Not sure when that will happen. I’ve seen geraniums, roses and the like blooming well into December…. these days

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 10:24 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 8:47 am Latest first freezes per the boys:

November 27th at Cincinnati and Columbus
November 25th at Dayton

28-32 degrees would kill a percentage of flowering plants of the tender variety, to halt the rest you need 24-27 degrees . Not sure when that will happen. I’ve seen geraniums, roses and the like blooming well into December…. these days

It's crazy, isn't it? Daffodils coming up in February lol Last winter was so mild, a lot of my spinach grew throughout the season.

Per your post in the October thread, agree , the qpf can keeps getting kicked down the road. Not saying we won’t see some rain but drought busting rains remain a long ways off

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 12:43 pm Per your post in the October thread, agree , the qpf can keeps getting kicked down the road. Not saying we won’t see some rain but drought busting rains remain a long ways off

We need to see the -PDO weaken or something change in the Pacific to cause the Bermuda high to break down. I wish I had more of an answer but it's the best that I can come up with right now.

The pattern for the 1st half of November continues to look warmer then avg, if not well above avg with below normal rainfall. Fronts try and get in here but weaken as they do so. It is basically a continuation of the current pattern to be honest. I wish I had better news but I don't unfortunately.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2024 4:33 am The pattern for the 1st half of November continues to look warmer then avg, if not well above avg with below normal rainfall. Fronts try and get in here but weaken as they do so. It is basically a continuation of the current pattern to be honest. I wish I had better news but I don't unfortunately.

Continues to look bleak for Canada as well through mid month . I see no cold high pressure air masses

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2024 5:59 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2024 4:33 am The pattern for the 1st half of November continues to look warmer then avg, if not well above avg with below normal rainfall. Fronts try and get in here but weaken as they do so. It is basically a continuation of the current pattern to be honest. I wish I had better news but I don't unfortunately.

Continues to look bleak for Canada as well through mid month . I see no cold high pressure air masses

The snow cover will continue to build for Siberia, Alaska, parts of Western Canada and the Rockies. East of these areas, we torch! (You know this of course), but when looking at the various Ensembles, they are all in good agreement where storms roll into Alaska from Siberia and the Bering sea, then drop down into the trough over the Western US which pumps up the ridging for us as well as the Eastern half of Canada all the way up into Hudson's Bay! Wash, rinse, and repeat. The best moisture will remain to our NW as these fronts lose their forcing thanks to the ridge from hell that refuses to break down. Any severe wx threats, the best chances for that anyway, will also be to our west and we'll get the leftovers if there are any to be had.

MJO failing its first test of the season

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2024 6:26 am MJO failing its first test of the season

As of 10/28, the Aussies showed it close to crossing into Phase 7 so we should be there by now. In the Fall, that is a dry and warm phase for us and that's exactly what we keep talking about on here.

Good Morning and a nice mild start to the day and another warm afternoon in store. No doubt the pacific is keeping mild air flowing across the country but also the tropics south of here are helping in getting the Bermuda High very strong. As of yesterday we are exactly 3 degrees above normal for the month and will add a tad more the next 2 days. My son in Wisconsin is expecting 2-3 inches from the system that gets in here Thursday and though he had a drought late last year and early this year its not that bad and is pond is close to normal and no doubt another 2-3 inches will have the pond in great shape plus when I was up there everything was very green which by this time of year usually the grass will have stopped growing but they have been mild as well.

For the upcoming system my guess is 1/4 to 1/2 inch for most folks and not seeing anything much higher but as usual if you get a few extra hours of rainfall it may go a tad higher.. My guess is a top 20 driest October and temp wise probably top 30 or so is my guess. Good thing November will be busier than October but that is not saying much

Our first chance for rain in the new month is on Sunday with a warm front coming thru. The chances looks brief and light per our usual. Very warm and humid conditions thereafter and I am thinking that we might threaten or get close to record highs again for next week. Rain chances next week look very low on Monday (minus N counties, depends on where the warm front stalls) and then later on Election Day itself as the cold front moves in. Depends on timing but if today's 12Z GFS is right we are dry on Tuesday as the front moves in overnight. Remember though, the forcing weakens as the front moves in thanks to the ridge so the rain will also be weakening as it moves in. GFS has a Tues night into Wed morning passage and if this works out, the timing is also unfavorable for stronger t-storms. Of further note.... due to the front weakening, the air behind it won't be too cool either. The temps will drop but not dramatically so.

Shorts and T’s alert still in effect next week. Poor Canada.

EU ensembles

The above map is classic phase 7 for the MJO in the Fall. So far thru mid month, I see no stoppage of a trough west, ridge east type of pattern. The storm track runs from AK into Western Canada / Western US and lifts up thru the Plains. We will see several severe wx events to our West. For us, we get the leftovers and weakening fronts thanks to the ridge from hell. Concerning the tropics, I am still watching the Caribbean for development. It will be about timing as far as any CONUS impact goes. If a trough can sneak in then anything in the tropics would get deflected out to sea. If something forms and can sneak under the ridge and get into the Gulf, then there could be some trouble. We simply just don't know if anything will develop as of yet. I think that something can pop in the next couple of weeks. I just don't yet know if it's a fish storm or not. The high confidence thing is continued warmth overall as a whole. The best rains will be to our NW. We'll see some, but not enough to put a dent in the drought IMO.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2024 4:54 pm Shorts and T’s alert still in effect next week. Poor Canada.

EU ensembles



IMG_2542.jpeg

Just wanted to tell folks that look at this map that Canada is not going to be cold. Yes they will be cold but just above average. This will give them better shots of snowfall which in turn by the end of next month or early December should no doubt lead to a nice coverage of cold air. The above normal temps will not last all this season into the winter and Mother Nature will even things out. Still need to find where October ranks for warmth but nowhere near the top 10 and my guess much further down the list compared to rainfall which should most likely be in the top 10.

they are talking possible record highs tomorrow . which is around 80 for the area. my guess is we get to upper 70s then not as warm for Friday and average for the weekend with highs around 58 then warm again middle of next week. we have already had a freeze here so the growing season is pretty much shot and a lot of stuff is dead and dried to a crisp. it wont take much for an inferno .

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2024 2:47 am they are talking possible record highs tomorrow . which is around 80 for the area. my guess is we get to upper 70s then not as warm for Friday and average for the weekend with highs around 58 then warm again middle of next week. we have already had a freeze here so the growing season is pretty much shot and a lot of stuff is dead and dried to a crisp. it wont take much for an inferno .

No freeze here yet. My local backyard has not even had a frost. 81 is our record for today but we will stay in the 70s due to an approaching cold front / showers.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2024 6:53 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2024 4:54 pm Shorts and T’s alert still in effect next week. Poor Canada.

EU ensembles



IMG_2542.jpeg

Just wanted to tell folks that look at this map that Canada is not going to be cold. Yes they will be cold but just above average. This will give them better shots of snowfall which in turn by the end of next month or early December should no doubt lead to a nice coverage of cold air. The above normal temps will not last all this season into the winter and Mother Nature will even things out. Still need to find where October ranks for warmth but nowhere near the top 10 and my guess much further down the list compared to rainfall which should most likely be in the top 10.

Hey Tim, I don’t know what December and beyond holds , but what the map covers for the next 10 days for Canada and the pattern is awful. Little to no snow outside the mountains region for all of southern Canada. ( Temps 8-12+ above normal ) Over those 10 days the 500mb pattern does Southern Canada no favors with the storm track(moisture, except east where it’s mostly rain). As we move toward mid month a bit more uncertainty prevails as far as temps for southern Canada. Even then , closer to normal would be a welcome change for southern Canada

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2024 7:47 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2024 6:53 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2024 4:54 pm Shorts and T’s alert still in effect next week. Poor Canada.

EU ensembles



IMG_2542.jpeg

Just wanted to tell folks that look at this map that Canada is not going to be cold. Yes they will be cold but just above average. This will give them better shots of snowfall which in turn by the end of next month or early December should no doubt lead to a nice coverage of cold air. The above normal temps will not last all this season into the winter and Mother Nature will even things out. Still need to find where October ranks for warmth but nowhere near the top 10 and my guess much further down the list compared to rainfall which should most likely be in the top 10.

Hey Tim, I don’t know what December and beyond holds , but what the map covers for the next 10 days for Canada and the pattern is awful. Little to no snow outside the mountains region for all of southern Canada. ( Temps 8-12+ above normal ) As we move toward mid month a bit more uncertainty prevails as far as temps for southern Canada. Even then , closer to normal would be a welcome change for southern Canada

Hey Bgoney and no doubt above normal temps for southern Canada but for them in early to mid-November can still lead to temps cold enough for snow. What caught my eye more than Canada is Alaska and they are expecting a very mild start to November even though they had a recent cold spell.. I agree that cold air compared to normal is behind schedule in the northern hemisphere. My guess much of this is because of the late tropical season and how the tropical systems are important in sending mild air towards the poles but usually by this time of year the tropics are done but this year is no doubt the exception. Once the tropics are done then the cold will come. I love weather that is unusual and this Oct has been just that and really if I was not looking at the numbers I would have said we are 6-8 degrees above normal.

Just wanted to add to the above post and in Taiwan the strongest Typhoon in 30 years and then the flooding in Spain. The warming across the northern hemisphere has been noticed but still believe that in time Mother Nature will try to balance this out but I worry about the global warming gang using this for their effort and if this would continue for 50 years they could be on to something but again the planet has been through this before and will happen in the future.

Nice posts fellas... but I am with Bgoney with regards to the 500 MB pattern. It's been awful and it continues to look awful for the foreseeable future. I don't know if that typhoon over Taiwan is going to be strong enough to help change things up in the Pacific once it recurves to the NE off Japan. It is forecast by the JTWC to be a TS at that time. We'll just have to wait and see on that one.

As far as the tropics go closer to home, I have been banging that drum for a while now. Still watching the Caribbean for future development over the next couple of weeks. We'll deal with that aspect of the forecast should something happen to form. In short, let's take that one step at a time.

As far as the MJO goes, we're in Phase 7. I think Phase 8 is doable but after that I do think the impulse weakens. So I don't really know at this point if it'll do us any good after mid November. We truly need the -PDO to weaken. Phr0z3n and I have been discussing this in our early winter thoughts thread and it's pretty much a waiting game at this time to see what happens with the PDO. All I know is that we can toss the first half of November at the very least. I continue to expect above normal temps. Where I disagree with Tim is above normal precip. I believe that these fronts, at least for the first half of the month are going to continue to weaken as they move into our area thanks to that stubborn ridge of high pressure that refuses to give up. Again, I think the extremely -PDO is a big cause of that and not so much the La Nina itself.

This map does look encouraging to me, anyway, concerning the MJO. If we can see this actually occur in phase 8 even with cooler waters in the phase 8 region and such a -PDO, maybe, just maybe, we can actually get into phases 8 and 1 during the winter months. As always, time will tell.

Sorry about the image. Had to use a screenshot to post. Phone issues at the moment.

Hey Doug... I do think we'll see Phase 8, but I am not yet convinced that the current impulse will get into Phase 1. We shall see... some forecasters out there do believe that it will and the models will trend colder towards the end of next week as a result. It's a long ways out as you know but we will certainly continue to keep an eye on it for sure. I also think that the tropics may play a role which would imply that we stay warm. Lots to watch this time of year as usual.

Wonderful post guys. We have so much to talk about and after a rather boring October we should get much busier.