Absolute Vorticity

Wow! Click on that link to see a satellite loop.


https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/ ... itgefs=Off

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 8:12 am Wow! Click on that link to see a satellite loop.


https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/ ... itgefs=Off

Oh My!!!! We went from a totally sleepy nothing-burger of a hurricane season to an Oh Sh-t! season pretty quick. Hopefully that south-eastern meander takes it a little closer to land than forecast and maybe helps shear it out a little bit before it heads for Florida.

House of Cards wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 8:29 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 8:12 am Wow! Click on that link to see a satellite loop.


https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/ ... itgefs=Off

Oh My!!!! We went from a totally sleepy nothing-burger of a hurricane season to an Oh Sh-t! season pretty quick. Hopefully that south-eastern meander takes it a little closer to land than forecast and maybe helps shear it out a little bit before it heads for Florida.

Not sure yet if the circulation will be disrupted any due to it coming close to the Yucatan Penn, before heading more to the NE towards FL. Something to watch for sure. It may or may not make any difference. For now, rapid intensification continues....

We now have a Cat 4 folks! Great Googly Moogly!


Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
805 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

Data from both Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton has
strengthened to a category 4 hurricane. The maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 150 mph (240 km/h). Milton is a category
4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data
from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has
fallen to 940 mb (27.76 inches).

These changes will be reflected in the normal 10 AM CDT (1500 UTC)
advisory.


SUMMARY OF 805 AM CDT...1305 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 92.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 735 MI...11185 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

Yep, just heard Desantis mention it was now a Cat 4. Good thing FEMA has plenty of $$$

Latest visible loop - Wow!


https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/ ... itgefs=Off


Next update from the NHC will be coming out near 11am ET.

Here's another Hi-Res visible loop:


https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY..
...FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 91.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

A piece of the NHC Discussion - WOW!


Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Milton's remarkable rapid intensification is continuing. Satellite
images show a small eye within the very cold central cloud cover,
and the eye is becoming better defined. Data from the Mexican
radar at Sabancuy show a small, closed eye with an intense eyewall
presentation. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier reported a peak
flight-level wind of 146 kt, and dropsonde data show that the
pressure has fallen to around 933 mb, which is down about 22 mb in
4 hours. The initial wind speed is set to 135 kt, which is an
80-kt increase in 24 hours (only eclipsed by Wilma 2005 and Felix
2007 in our records).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 21.7N 91.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 21.5N 90.4W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 22.2N 88.3W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 23.6N 86.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 25.5N 84.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 27.7N 82.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 29.2N 80.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 30.8N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1200Z 31.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

On the 11am advisory track, the NHC has the eye going right thru Tampa Bay and with a NE angle of attack, assuming that the track is nailed down, which it isn't, this scenario would be the worst possible outcome for Tampa Bay itself. With the storm being this strong, it could still go a bit north of Tampa Bay. The model trends have been to keep it near or north of Tampa Bay. That is my thinking as well for a landfall location, probably just a bit north of Tampa Bay.

Cat 5 now folks!

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1055 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Milton has strengthened to a category 5 hurricane. The
maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 160 mph (250 km/h) with
higher gusts. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the
minimum pressure has fallen to 925 mb (27.31 inches).


SUMMARY OF 1055 AM CDT...1555 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 91.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 735 MI...1175 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES

Current water vapor loop - There are no words to describe this beast!


https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

Uncle Miltie has gone DERANGED!!

The record lowest pressure in the Gulf was from Hurricane Rita at 895 MB back in 2005. No clue if Milton will get that low, but it's making a run at it.

Go to YouTube and search for Tropical Tidbits. Look at the video on Milton for today. This is a must watch from Dr. Levi Cohen.

WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON EXPLOSIVELY INTENSIFIES WITH 175-MPH WINDS...
...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL
OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 91.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude
21.7 North, longitude 91.3 West. Milton is moving toward the east
near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is expected today followed
by a turn toward the east-northeast and northeast on Tuesday and
Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move near or
just north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross
the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula by Wednesday.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near
175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a potentially
catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is
forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall
in Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 911 mb (26.90 inches)
based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde data.

Holy smokes! This is awful. But at least the Governor and EM folks in Florida have their acts together. Hoping this will magically fizzle out, but knowing it won't.

House of Cards wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 2:14 pm Holy smokes! This is awful. But at least the Governor and EM folks in Florida have their acts together. Hoping this will magically fizzle out, but knowing it won't.

IMO Dave, since it is so strong, even if it weakens to a Cat 3 at landfall, you can expect Cat 4 or 5 storm surge. The storm surge will be extremely massive with this thing!

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 2:24 pm

House of Cards wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 2:14 pm Holy smokes! This is awful. But at least the Governor and EM folks in Florida have their acts together. Hoping this will magically fizzle out, but knowing it won't.

IMO Dave, since it is so strong, even if it weakens to a Cat 3 at landfall, you can expect Cat 4 or 5 storm surge. The storm surge will be extremely massive with this thing!

Agree 100%; Clay Travis and Buck Sexton were just talking about this, said Marco Rubio asked to be shown a graphical representation of a worst case hurricane scenario for FL, and that this was the exact map/setup they gave him, this was well prior to Milton.

I predict that Florida will be shutdown for tourism e.g. after Milton probably for an indefinite time period. I heard today that Gov. DeSantis has quickly mobilized some teams to collect debris and rubble as much as they can, left from Helene, before Wed., to understandably help eliminate flying "missiles." Gov. DeSantis said that currently Milton's landfall timetable is from Wed. evening to early Thurs. morning depending of course on forward speed.

Likely going sub 900hpa

I agree Bgoney... we could see this max out at 180-185 before an EWRC (eye wall replacement cycle) begins to slowly weaken it. It is likely to remain at a Cat 5 strength thru tomorrow afternoon. Sometime Tues night / Wed, the wind shear should begin to weaken it overall if the guidance is correct of course.

Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...
...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 90.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.73 INCHES

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 21.8N 90.8W 155 KT 180 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 21.9N 89.4W 160 KT 185 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 22.7N 87.4W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 24.2N 85.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 26.1N 84.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 27.9N 82.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/1800Z 29.2N 79.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 11/1800Z 30.5N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1800Z 31.0N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP