Re: September 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2024 6:54 pm
CVG reached 88, DAY 87 and CMH 89'ed today.
Absolute Vorticity
Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
https://absolutevorticity.com/
September 2024 Weather Discussion
Page 2 of 32
Re: September 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 8:44 am
Good morning! It sure feels nice outside. Got the smoker going and the ribs are on! Look for highs in the U70s to around 80 today. Fairly similar for tomorrow. Then the mid to U80s Wed, U80s on Thursday and even a sneaky 90 at CVG is very possible. A chance for rain then shows up Friday into Sat with that deeper trough coming in. Rain chances continue to look meager IMO at this time. I expect highs in the 70s and lows dipping down into the 40s with that deep trough. Once that moves out, we may see another trough in the mid Sept timeframe. As usual, we shall see!
Re: September 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 9:15 am
Re: September 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 9:27 am
Re: September 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 9:34 am
Good Morning Les and a great looking week and getting rid of the humidity is the key. We may see dew points get above 60 Thursday and Friday. Temps and 77-81 today and Tuesday and then 82-85 Wednesday through Friday though I am leaning on the lower end but if the dew points remain even lower than I expect then you could see and 85 at CVG. Weekend looks great with late September type weather moving in. Biggest problem is rain and this pattern is not one you get much in the way of rainfall and with the tropics not playing their part the dryness will continue. Next week another nice looking week with temps staying below normal early and then heading towards normal by mid-late week. Will this pattern change and really its the tropics that can change that but getting several cold fronts before they are awake in our area can cause the systems to stay much further south and east which just means the dryness goes on and on.tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 02, 2024 8:44 am Good morning! It sure feels nice outside. Got the smoker going and the ribs are on! Look for highs in the U70s to around 80 today. Fairly similar for tomorrow. Then the mid to U80s Wed, U80s on Thursday and even a sneaky 90 at CVG is very possible. A chance for rain then shows up Friday into Sat with that deeper trough coming in. Rain chances continue to look meager IMO at this time. I expect highs in the 70s and lows dipping down into the 40s with that deep trough. Once that moves out, we may see another trough in the mid Sept timeframe. As usual, we shall see!
Re: September 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 9:57 am
That is certainly a concern of mine Tim. You hit the nail on the head too with the lasts sentence of your post. It maybe until we get to October that the decent rains return. Currently I don't expect it to occur in September. The exception here is if the tropics get involved but so far, I wouldn't be betting on that.tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Sep 02, 2024 9:34 amGood Morning Les and a great looking week and getting rid of the humidity is the key. We may see dew points get above 60 Thursday and Friday. Temps and 77-81 today and Tuesday and then 82-85 Wednesday through Friday though I am leaning on the lower end but if the dew points remain even lower than I expect then you could see and 85 at CVG. Weekend looks great with late September type weather moving in. Biggest problem is rain and this pattern is not one you get much in the way of rainfall and with the tropics not playing their part the dryness will continue. Next week another nice looking week with temps staying below normal early and then heading towards normal by mid-late week. Will this pattern change and really its the tropics that can change that but getting several cold fronts before they are awake in our area can cause the systems to stay much further south and east which just means the dryness goes on and on.tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 02, 2024 8:44 am Good morning! It sure feels nice outside. Got the smoker going and the ribs are on! Look for highs in the U70s to around 80 today. Fairly similar for tomorrow. Then the mid to U80s Wed, U80s on Thursday and even a sneaky 90 at CVG is very possible. A chance for rain then shows up Friday into Sat with that deeper trough coming in. Rain chances continue to look meager IMO at this time. I expect highs in the 70s and lows dipping down into the 40s with that deep trough. Once that moves out, we may see another trough in the mid Sept timeframe. As usual, we shall see!
Re: September 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 2:37 pm
What a beautiful day and the breeze almost makes it feel cool when the clouds are in place. The rant of the week and this was an easy one and that is the Euro. Late last week this model kept pushing temps up all this week and had temps from 83-89 each and every day this week. The Euro really has gone down hill and especially when you have seasonal changes. They may still be tops in the winter and not even sure about that but it seems has technology advances these models would do a better job.
Re: September 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 3:22 pm
Love reading some of the NWS offices forecasts and again some are better then others at least in the way they present information. Indy does a nice job and was reading the latest from them and they even mentioned this weekend if everything falls in place some colder areas could be in the 30's. Is that impossible and no as we understand in some of the valleys the cold can settle and especially with dry ground that temps can tumble. My guess is most airport locations will stay in the low-mid 40's but it does show you how cool this air mass will be
Re: September 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 3:23 pm
tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Sep 02, 2024 3:22 pm Love reading some of the NWS offices forecasts and again some are better then others at least in the way they present information. Indy does a nice job and was reading the latest from them and they even mentioned this weekend if everything falls in place some colder areas could be in the 30's. Is that impossible and yes as we understand in some of the valleys the cold can settle and especially with dry ground that temps can tumble. My guess is most airport locations will stay in the low-mid 40's but it does show you how cool this air mass will be
Re: September 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 3:48 pm
The tellies are wonderful at that moment and would love to see this later this fall and winter. Negative AO and NAO and positive PNA. The mjo is not in what we call a favorable phase and that is in phase 4 heading to phase 6. This mjo phase this time of year is usually not good for tropical systems for the mainland USA. Sure systems can still happen but usually its in phases 8-2 where we have a better shot. The monsoon season in India and southern Asia is starting to wane but they have no doubt had plenty of rain this summer. Always a double edge sword over there because you need rain for the crops and just to cool it down some but also flooding is always big concern because many many folks live near rivers and and flash floods are always possible. Of course the southwest USA has been very dry this monsoon season and that is another reason the heat has been ongoing for several months with just a few periods which the heat expanded in our area.
Re: September 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 5:03 pm
80 with a dew of 44. Don't get much better then that (unless it's snowing lol).
Re: September 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 6:45 pm
Dew point isa down to 41 now wow!~ That's amazing for early Sept.
Re: September 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2024 12:30 am
CVG got to 81, DAY 77 and CMH 78 on Labor Day. 
Re: September 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2024 3:34 am
my extended forecast is all below avg temps and low dew points. man that is nice to see for early September . we have about 1 month left before we can say goodbye to the miserable summer weather
Re: September 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2024 4:26 am
The only beef I have Charles is with the lack of rain around here. My yard is so dry and crunchy. Otherwise, the temps right now are great!
Re: September 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2024 4:29 am
Good morning all! Another beauty today then the mid to upper 80s return for the rest of the week. I still am not ruling out a sneaky 90. Chances for rain still look to be Fri / Sat ahead of that deep trough. Rain chances continue to look on the slim side. Temps will be in the 70s behind the trough with lows in the 40s. A true taste of Fall on the way!
In the extended range, The weather continues to look dry on both the GFS and Euro models. The drought will continue to worsen across the entire region. I have no signs of a nice soaker or a wet pattern for the foreseeable future.
In the extended range, The weather continues to look dry on both the GFS and Euro models. The drought will continue to worsen across the entire region. I have no signs of a nice soaker or a wet pattern for the foreseeable future.
Re: September 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2024 7:55 am
Temps will average out close to normal for this first week. Still looks like nearing mid month above normal temps take over for a stretch with a Sprawling high pressure ridge in the center of NAtron777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 03, 2024 4:29 am Good morning all! Another beauty today then the mid to upper 80s return for the rest of the week. I still am not ruling out a sneaky 90. Chances for rain still look to be Fri / Sat ahead of that deep trough. Rain chances continue to look on the slim side. Temps will be in the 70s behind the trough with lows in the 40s. A true taste of Fall on the way!
In the extended range, The weather continues to look dry on both the GFS and Euro models. The drought will continue to worsen across the entire region. I have no signs of a nice soaker or a wet pattern for the foreseeable future.
Re: September 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2024 8:05 am
I agree. We lose over an hour of daylight during the month of Sept so the avg high will start dropping a little faster as the month wears on. Temps may over achieve due to the drought as well.Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Sep 03, 2024 7:55 amTemps will average out close to normal for this first week. Still looks like nearing mid month above normal temps take over for a stretch with a Sprawling high pressure ridge in the center of NAtron777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 03, 2024 4:29 am Good morning all! Another beauty today then the mid to upper 80s return for the rest of the week. I still am not ruling out a sneaky 90. Chances for rain still look to be Fri / Sat ahead of that deep trough. Rain chances continue to look on the slim side. Temps will be in the 70s behind the trough with lows in the 40s. A true taste of Fall on the way!
In the extended range, The weather continues to look dry on both the GFS and Euro models. The drought will continue to worsen across the entire region. I have no signs of a nice soaker or a wet pattern for the foreseeable future.
Re: September 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2024 8:13 am
Speaking of losing daylight. Now that the drive into work is dark , I’m reminded of how many people don’t know or don’t care , that you only use the bright headlights on rare occasions, not when you’re passing or behind other cars. With the new headlights these days(overkill )they are extremely blinding
Re: September 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2024 9:08 am
Yeah the new LED headlights are very blinding! I don't like the blue color that you can get on some car models. Very annoying!Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Sep 03, 2024 8:13 am Speaking of losing daylight. Now that the drive into work is dark , I’m reminded of how many people don’t know or don’t care , that you only use the bright headlights on rare occasions, not when you’re passing or behind other cars. With the new headlights these days(overkill )they are extremely blinding
Re: September 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2024 12:37 pm
GFS is downright gross with the heat next week.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 03, 2024 8:05 amI agree. We lose over an hour of daylight during the month of Sept so the avg high will start dropping a little faster as the month wears on. Temps may over achieve due to the drought as well.Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Sep 03, 2024 7:55 amTemps will average out close to normal for this first week. Still looks like nearing mid month above normal temps take over for a stretch with a Sprawling high pressure ridge in the center of NAtron777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 03, 2024 4:29 am Good morning all! Another beauty today then the mid to upper 80s return for the rest of the week. I still am not ruling out a sneaky 90. Chances for rain still look to be Fri / Sat ahead of that deep trough. Rain chances continue to look on the slim side. Temps will be in the 70s behind the trough with lows in the 40s. A true taste of Fall on the way!
In the extended range, The weather continues to look dry on both the GFS and Euro models. The drought will continue to worsen across the entire region. I have no signs of a nice soaker or a wet pattern for the foreseeable future.
Re: September 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2024 12:45 pm
Re: September 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2024 1:32 pm
20-30 degrees above normal most of next week for the plains and southern Canada with the GOM closed for business for all locations
Re: September 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2024 2:34 pm
hey hey hey! Going into my favorite season- autumn! Yesterday was beautiful- cool, deep blue sky, breeze. Seems to be nice today as well. Hopefully, there will be little to no 90-degree weather days, and we are hoping for another full fall season like we got last year.
Re: September 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2024 2:42 pm
I don't think that the 90s are done yet at all. The drought is really going to intensify and the models have backed way off on the cooler weather. Yes, a few cooler days will be in the mix 100%, but the heat will come back. We can expect a few days in the U80s to around 90 later this week. A deep trough comes in for Sunday on into early next week. However, 90+ degree temps are showing up again for a spell after that in the extended range. Normally, I won't buy it but due to the drought, I am buying it at this time unfortunately. As Bgoney mentioned, the Gulf is closed for business and the tropics are severely underperforming when they should be ramping up as we approach the peak of the hurricane season. I just don't see much rain in our future so when we get these big highs coming in, dew points are low, the ground is bone dry, so the temps can easily sky rocket to levels higher then what the guidance is indicating.MJSun wrote: ↑Tue Sep 03, 2024 2:34 pm hey hey hey! Going into my favorite season- autumn! Yesterday was beautiful- cool, deep blue sky, breeze. Seems to be nice today as well. Hopefully, there will be little to no 90-degree weather days, and we are hoping for another full fall season like we got last year.