Absolute Vorticity

Good Afternoon and what a beautiful day. Can we get some decent rains Wednesday and Thursday and still up in the air and models will go back and forth with each run and one time the Euro may have CVG at 1.85 and the next at 0.45. Where do the storms blossom and yes can we get a decent mcs to move through the area. The one thing is no extreme heat by any means and the cold in Canada is no doubt helping us from getting that extreme heat the models showed last month. Can it switch around and sure but for the time being just your normal summertime blues.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 3:01 pm Good Afternoon and what a beautiful day. Can we get some decent rains Wednesday and Thursday and still up in the air and models will go back and forth with each run and one time the Euro may have CVG at 1.85 and the next at 0.45. Where do the storms blossom and yes can we get a decent mcs to move through the area. The one thing is no extreme heat by any means and the cold in Canada is no doubt helping us from getting that extreme heat the models showed last month. Can it switch around and sure but for the time being just your normal summertime blues.

My only compliant is the lack of rain so far this summer. If it wasn't for that, this summer so far hasn't been too awful bad. We doubled our avg of 90 degree days for June but so far, the first half of July could have a minimal number of 90 degree days so it would balance itself out so to speak. We just need some rain plain and simple.

Today has been top notch! Got the lawn mowed, edged and trimmed and ready for my party!

It is lovely outside Les. I have been couped up inside all friggin day, but I'm getting outside tonight for sure. We got back last week from our Alaskan cruise, but the bad part was we spent approx 18 hours Sunday thru Monday stuck in either Seattle airport or O'hare or on planes, and managed to pick up some crappy virus. My wife and I both spent the whole weekend sleeping/recuperating. Now I'm ready to get out and have a little fun.

House of Cards wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 4:35 pm It is lovely outside Les. I have been couped up inside all friggin day, but I'm getting outside tonight for sure. We got back last week from our Alaskan cruise, but the bad part was we spent approx 18 hours Sunday thru Monday stuck in either Seattle airport or O'hare or on planes, and managed to pick up some crappy virus. My wife and I both spent the whole weekend sleeping/recuperating. Now I'm ready to get out and have a little fun.

I've always wanted to visit Alaska! Hope you had a wonderful time Dave!

Only 79 at CVG today, 77 here! It's as good as it gets for the summer months even if it is only for one day.

What I can see over the next 7-10 days is the tropics will be alive but most likely far enough south not to have a big ridge over us. Will get hot in places you expect the southern plains gulf states but with enough cool fronts able to invade from Canada we really end up with a normal July. Maybe not wet enough like Les mentioned but at least not heat advisory kind of heat for several days. The current heat advisories are located along the gulf coast and that is heat and humidity and also the valley's of California for heat. Not exactly how models showed this a few weeks ago but we saw here on this forum and was no way calling for a summer with heat the entire summer. Sure will get hot again and the reason is its summer. Happens every year and I just checked and yes its July.

Tim.... for the next couple of weeks, the Ensembles show a big ridge out West and another over New England. We are in between the two so a weakness which means a trough at times and hopefully some much needed rainfall too. The heat IMO should return by mid month if not shortly thereafter.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 5:35 pm Tim.... for the next couple of weeks, the Ensembles show a big ridge out West and another over New England. We are in between the two so a weakness which means a trough at times and hopefully some much needed rainfall too. The heat IMO should return by mid month if not shortly thereafter.

I agree Les and we know the southwest monsoon season will start in late July or early August and the tropics will start in August as well though they are off to an early start as we know. Where does the Bermuda High set up shop and so far well to the east of us so that is why we are able to get fronts through the area though we have been unlucky to a certain extent on rainfall. Canada as I have mentioned is really cool or in some cases cold for this time of year and with the rain in the northern plains and upper mid-west these fronts have had little in the way of stopping. I hope this continues and if we can get lucky over the next few weeks and get a nice say 2-4 inches by mid-month that would help though we would still be under the short drought conditions

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 6:05 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 5:35 pm Tim.... for the next couple of weeks, the Ensembles show a big ridge out West and another over New England. We are in between the two so a weakness which means a trough at times and hopefully some much needed rainfall too. The heat IMO should return by mid month if not shortly thereafter.

I agree Les and we know the southwest monsoon season will start in late July or early August and the tropics will start in August as well though they are off to an early start as we know. Where does the Bermuda High set up shop and so far well to the east of us so that is why we are able to get fronts through the area though we have been unlucky to a certain extent on rainfall. Canada as I have mentioned is really cool or in some cases cold for this time of year and with the rain in the northern plains and upper mid-west these fronts have had little in the way of stopping. I hope this continues and if we can get lucky over the next few weeks and get a nice say 2-4 inches by mid-month that would help though we would still be under the short drought conditions

It takes many weeks to get into a drought so it will take many weeks to get out of it as we all know. I'd be totally satisfied with 1" of rain this week. I'm not greedy I just want the ground to not be so crisp and dry for fireworks.

CVG got to 80, DAY 77 and CMH 79 on Mon.

Good morning folks! 55 here this morning, 60 at CVG. Models are showing the best chance for rain in Cincinnati to be late Wed evening into the overnight. Then for the 4th, the NAM and GFS are mainly from Cincy on south with the rain and the Euro is dry until the afternoon and evening and is much further north with the t-storm activity. Scattered action Fri from the NAM and GFS where the Euro brings in a big line of storms for everyone Fri afternoon and evening. The weekend is dry on all models.

For severe wx prospects.... we are all under the slight risk still on Wed and for Thurs, a marginal risk from the Tri-state on south. Rainfall amounts from the latest guidance at CVG for the Wed - Fri period.

6Z NAM - 1.05" (ending 2pm Friday)
6Z GFS - 0.61"
0Z Euro - 1.06"

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 4:52 pm

House of Cards wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 4:35 pm It is lovely outside Les. I have been couped up inside all friggin day, but I'm getting outside tonight for sure. We got back last week from our Alaskan cruise, but the bad part was we spent approx 18 hours Sunday thru Monday stuck in either Seattle airport or O'hare or on planes, and managed to pick up some crappy virus. My wife and I both spent the whole weekend sleeping/recuperating. Now I'm ready to get out and have a little fun.

I've always wanted to visit Alaska! Hope you had a wonderful time Dave!

you should definitely go! I thought Hawaii was beautiful, but man, Alaska has it beat all to heck! In fact, I was more than a little surprised by places like Juneau where there were lots of beautiful flowers/plants. I was expecting mountains and snow and fir trees, but there was so much more there. You being a fisherman I think you'd really love the opportunities for fishing too.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:54 am Good morning folks! 55 here this morning, 60 at CVG. Models are showing the best chance for rain in Cincinnati to be late Wed evening into the overnight. Then for the 4th, the NAM and GFS are mainly from Cincy on south with the rain and the Euro is dry until the afternoon and evening and is much further north with the t-storm activity. Scattered action Fri from the NAM and GFS where the Euro brings in a big line of storms for everyone Fri afternoon and evening. The weekend is dry on all models.

What are your thoughts for Friday, Euro or Nam/GFS? Our HOA is having a grillout/block party so hoping we get the NAM/GFS solution of the two....

House of Cards wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 9:08 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 4:52 pm

House of Cards wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 4:35 pm It is lovely outside Les. I have been couped up inside all friggin day, but I'm getting outside tonight for sure. We got back last week from our Alaskan cruise, but the bad part was we spent approx 18 hours Sunday thru Monday stuck in either Seattle airport or O'hare or on planes, and managed to pick up some crappy virus. My wife and I both spent the whole weekend sleeping/recuperating. Now I'm ready to get out and have a little fun.

I've always wanted to visit Alaska! Hope you had a wonderful time Dave!

you should definitely go! I thought Hawaii was beautiful, but man, Alaska has it beat all to heck! In fact, I was more than a little surprised by places like Juneau where there were lots of beautiful flowers/plants. I was expecting mountains and snow and fir trees, but there was so much more there. You being a fisherman I think you'd really love the opportunities for fishing too.

We had an Alaskan cruise planned last year. We went with Celebrity cruises because they were one of the only companies who did dialysis at sea for my Dad. We had a lot of excursions planned too including halibut fishing. My Mom, Dad, me, my cousin and his wife were all set to go. Then a couple of months before the cruise date, some rich a-hole bought out the entire cruise ship and our plans were cancelled. We were pretty pissed about the whole thing.

House of Cards wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 9:09 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:54 am Good morning folks! 55 here this morning, 60 at CVG. Models are showing the best chance for rain in Cincinnati to be late Wed evening into the overnight. Then for the 4th, the NAM and GFS are mainly from Cincy on south with the rain and the Euro is dry until the afternoon and evening and is much further north with the t-storm activity. Scattered action Fri from the NAM and GFS where the Euro brings in a big line of storms for everyone Fri afternoon and evening. The weekend is dry on all models.

What are your thoughts for Friday, Euro or Nam/GFS? Our HOA is having a grillout/block party so hoping we get the NAM/GFS solution of the two....

It's honestly a bit too early to know. The NAM doesn't quite go out far enough yet to cover Fri evening and the HRRR won't be useful either for a couple more days. I would plan on scattered action though certainly being possible. At this time I do think that Wed night and the 4th are currently our highest chances.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 9:22 am

House of Cards wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 9:08 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 4:52 pm

House of Cards wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 4:35 pm It is lovely outside Les. I have been couped up inside all friggin day, but I'm getting outside tonight for sure. We got back last week from our Alaskan cruise, but the bad part was we spent approx 18 hours Sunday thru Monday stuck in either Seattle airport or O'hare or on planes, and managed to pick up some crappy virus. My wife and I both spent the whole weekend sleeping/recuperating. Now I'm ready to get out and have a little fun.

I've always wanted to visit Alaska! Hope you had a wonderful time Dave!

you should definitely go! I thought Hawaii was beautiful, but man, Alaska has it beat all to heck! In fact, I was more than a little surprised by places like Juneau where there were lots of beautiful flowers/plants. I was expecting mountains and snow and fir trees, but there was so much more there. You being a fisherman I think you'd really love the opportunities for fishing too.

We had an Alaskan cruise planned last year. We went with Celebrity cruises because they were one of the only companies who did dialysis at sea for my Dad. We had a lot of excursions planned too including halibut fishing. My Mom, Dad, me, my cousin and his wife were all set to go. Then a couple of months before the cruise date, some rich a-hole bought out the entire cruise ship and our plans were cancelled. We were pretty pissed about the whole thing.

WOW, that really sucks, man. We sailed on NCL Encore. They were pretty good, the ship was beautiful, only real downer was the reschedule of our return flight which left us stuck in the airport all day Sunday. Hopefully you will get there soon. It's worth the effort, but it is a pretty difficult travel. Just make sure you don't forget to pack anything. Things are expensive there, made Hawaii look positively affordable by comparison.

House of Cards wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 10:30 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 9:22 am

House of Cards wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 9:08 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 4:52 pm

House of Cards wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 4:35 pm It is lovely outside Les. I have been couped up inside all friggin day, but I'm getting outside tonight for sure. We got back last week from our Alaskan cruise, but the bad part was we spent approx 18 hours Sunday thru Monday stuck in either Seattle airport or O'hare or on planes, and managed to pick up some crappy virus. My wife and I both spent the whole weekend sleeping/recuperating. Now I'm ready to get out and have a little fun.

I've always wanted to visit Alaska! Hope you had a wonderful time Dave!

you should definitely go! I thought Hawaii was beautiful, but man, Alaska has it beat all to heck! In fact, I was more than a little surprised by places like Juneau where there were lots of beautiful flowers/plants. I was expecting mountains and snow and fir trees, but there was so much more there. You being a fisherman I think you'd really love the opportunities for fishing too.

We had an Alaskan cruise planned last year. We went with Celebrity cruises because they were one of the only companies who did dialysis at sea for my Dad. We had a lot of excursions planned too including halibut fishing. My Mom, Dad, me, my cousin and his wife were all set to go. Then a couple of months before the cruise date, some rich a-hole bought out the entire cruise ship and our plans were cancelled. We were pretty pissed about the whole thing.

WOW, that really sucks, man. We sailed on NCL Encore. They were pretty good, the ship was beautiful, only real downer was the reschedule of our return flight which left us stuck in the airport all day Sunday. Hopefully you will get there soon. It's worth the effort, but it is a pretty difficult travel. Just make sure you don't forget to pack anything. Things are expensive there, made Hawaii look positively affordable by comparison.

I'll get there someday!

Hires Nam Wednesday evening showing a line of showers crash and burn as it enters Ohio/NK

12Z HRRR shows scattered convection over the Tri-state and esp the OH River counties late tomorrow afternoon and evening. I12Z operational NAM also shows scattered convection for the area tomorrow afternoon and evening and into the overnight hours. On the 4th, more scattered convection possible esp in the afternoon. Maybe a window for fireworks for the immediate Tri-state / Metro area? We'll see! Then for Friday, the NAM has scattered convection esp during the first half of the day with the evening hours drying out (that is the solution you want Dave). I'm not seeing any big MCS complex though so it looks like more of the usual where some folks get hammered and others very little.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 10:50 am 12Z HRRR shows scattered convection over the Tri-state and esp the OH River counties late tomorrow afternoon and evening. I12Z operational NAM also shows scattered convection for the area tomorrow afternoon and evening and into the overnight hours. On the 4th, more scattered convection possible esp in the afternoon. Maybe a window for fireworks for the immediate Tri-state / Metro area? We'll see! Then for Friday, the NAM has scattered convection esp during the first half of the day with the evening hours drying out (that is the solution you want Dave). I'm not seeing any big MCS complex though so it looks like more of the usual where some folks get hammered and others very little.

Sure looks that way , there’s just no dynamic support for an organized MCS for the region,atm . Like you said, about the Best we can get is multiple rounds of hit and miss showers/T-storms

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 11:20 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 10:50 am 12Z HRRR shows scattered convection over the Tri-state and esp the OH River counties late tomorrow afternoon and evening. I12Z operational NAM also shows scattered convection for the area tomorrow afternoon and evening and into the overnight hours. On the 4th, more scattered convection possible esp in the afternoon. Maybe a window for fireworks for the immediate Tri-state / Metro area? We'll see! Then for Friday, the NAM has scattered convection esp during the first half of the day with the evening hours drying out (that is the solution you want Dave). I'm not seeing any big MCS complex though so it looks like more of the usual where some folks get hammered and others very little.

Sure looks that way , there’s just no dynamic support for an organized MCS for the region,atm . Like you said, about the Best we can get is multiple rounds of hit and miss showers/T-storms

Where they do form though it will be very heavy rain with high PWATS. Just hope our hoods can cash in on one or two of these storms then we should be good to go. Next week is looking pretty active too so some better news long term IMO.

12Z GFS has scattered convection late Wed and on the 4th. For Friday, it shows the best chance for storms in the afternoon and evening as an actual surface low works thru the area. Models really aren't coming to any one conclusion other then we will see dry times in between rounds of storms. Again, some will get 1-2", others not so much. It truly will be a nowcast IMO as to where these storms will actually form.