Absolute Vorticity

POPS look fairly certain now for Sat afternoon and night. Sunday doesn't look too bad right now and Monday of next week looks very warm as the 80s make a come back along with the humidity. Tues onwards next week looks like a daily chance of t-storms with highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s. I expect another cool down back into the 70s for highs for a few days probably by the time we get towards next weekend June 8-9th. As far as severe wx chances go, nothing on the board as of yet, but I suspect we will need to see how the Tues - Thurs period goes next week. If the timing and position of the frontal boundary is correct, I could see a day or two during that time period getting outlooked for strong to severe storms. I don't see anything that stands out or is very concerning yet. You know how I operate. Keep that one eye open, that kind of thing.

Good Morning Les. Summer is upon us but at the moment nothing in the cards for any extended heat. Will the pattern switch this month and we start to see more heat. Answer is simple and I have no ideal. Way to early in saying the scorcher that many met's and yes models have been showing will not show up but at the moment not seeing any extended heat in in the eastern half of the USA. Even out west the heat is not impressive yet though the southwest which is even drier than normal could start to bake. Of course that heat will try and move north and east overtime but with quite a bit of rain in the south central states it does hold back the heat at first. Does the southeast Ridge start to grab hold and sure it will try but location is key to any long term heat as well. Hopefully June will just bring normal amounts of rainfall and that alone could hold off the heat.

Like Les mentioned with the ocean waters very warm for the most part this is not your father's El Nino switching to La Nina at the moment. Over the past several years when we see an El NIno or La Nina we seem to get certain results we have seen in the past but everything and here again models trying to figure this out like met's and forecasters.

Good morning Tim! I'm not sure when the heat will be switched on. Maybe late June and as we roll into the 4th of July time period. This is really a guess by me and nothing yet is set in stone since we are very far out in time.

EDIT: I am thinking that whenever the tropics decide to get busy, that should pump up the heat for us as is typically the case. But we'll see as usual.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri May 31, 2024 7:16 am Good morning Tim! I'm not sure when the heat will be switched on. Maybe late June and as we roll into the 4th of July time period. This is really a guess by me and nothing yet is set in stone since we are very far out in time.

EDIT: I am thinking that whenever the tropics decide to get busy, that should pump up the heat for us as is typically the case. But we'll see as usual.

Many times to get a hot summer the one thing you need is widespread drought over a large area. The drought has no doubt been deleted in many areas that saw it last year. That alone tempers my thoughts on a really hot summer. Sure its going to get hot sometime this summer but will it be tempered because of more vegetation and cooler soil temps than say one year ago. Models have more problems with the soil temp in the warmer months and also with snow cover in the winter. I did lower my total in the contest because at the moment hard to see any extended heat. Again do we get 20-30 days at 90 degrees or 20-30 days at 95 and above. At least through probably June the higher totals will very hard to reach but sure we can get in that 89-92 range especially if we continue to see decent amounts of rainfall and those overnight lows will start to rise near 70 with a moist atmosphere.

I know you keep us informed of other forums and what the talk is and for me I have this forum and that is plenty for me though I do listen to Brian in Louisville because he does a wonderful job and almost never gets over the top but with him saying he expects a hot summer it does keep my attention.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri May 31, 2024 7:35 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri May 31, 2024 7:16 am Good morning Tim! I'm not sure when the heat will be switched on. Maybe late June and as we roll into the 4th of July time period. This is really a guess by me and nothing yet is set in stone since we are very far out in time.

EDIT: I am thinking that whenever the tropics decide to get busy, that should pump up the heat for us as is typically the case. But we'll see as usual.

Many times to get a hot summer the one thing you need is widespread drought over a large area. The drought has no doubt been deleted in many areas that saw it last year. That alone tempers my thoughts on a really hot summer. Sure its going to get hot sometime this summer but will it be tempered because of more vegetation and cooler soil temps than say one year ago. Models have more problems with the soil temp in the warmer months and also with snow cover in the winter. I did lower my total in the contest because at the moment hard to see any extended heat. Again do we get 20-30 days at 90 degrees or 20-30 days at 95 and above. At least through probably June the higher totals will very hard to reach but sure we can get in that 89-92 range especially if we continue to see decent amounts of rainfall and those overnight lows will start to rise near 70 with a moist atmosphere.

I know you keep us informed of other forums and what the talk is and for me I have this forum and that is plenty for me though I do listen to Brian in Louisville because he does a wonderful job and almost never gets over the top but with him saying he expects a hot summer it does keep my attention.

I want to be wrong as you know how I love those 90s! I did forecast a cooler 1st half of summer and a hotter 2nd half. Met Summer starts tomorrow so we'll see how it goes. Plenty of time to go to see if I am right or wrong with the call.

BG had the CSU Learning Model posted for severe wx probabilities for the 1st week of June. Per this model, Wed of next week looks to be the best chance of seeing severe wx for us locally.

Good Afternoon and a wonderful last day of May. Do have some rain chances this weekend but totals will most likely be under 1/2 inch for most folks. What the pattern is trying to do next week is become active once again but in a different sort of way than most of this spring. The jet looks to get quite strong from the pacific northwest across the country diving into the Ohio Valley and then off the east coast. At the same time a heat ridge is trying to build on the southwest. This is a really good combo for MCS's. These usually are more likely in June and July for us and then further north in August has we usually are protected by the Bermuda High by then.

Models really have a hard time predicting these rounds of storms until they almost develop usually later in the evening over the plains and head east/southeast. These usually don't produce tornado's but straight line winds are a big concern and of course heavy rains.

Yes we will continue to be busy for another week for sure and how busy is still up in the air no pun intended.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri May 31, 2024 8:03 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri May 31, 2024 7:35 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri May 31, 2024 7:16 am Good morning Tim! I'm not sure when the heat will be switched on. Maybe late June and as we roll into the 4th of July time period. This is really a guess by me and nothing yet is set in stone since we are very far out in time.

EDIT: I am thinking that whenever the tropics decide to get busy, that should pump up the heat for us as is typically the case. But we'll see as usual.

Many times to get a hot summer the one thing you need is widespread drought over a large area. The drought has no doubt been deleted in many areas that saw it last year. That alone tempers my thoughts on a really hot summer. Sure its going to get hot sometime this summer but will it be tempered because of more vegetation and cooler soil temps than say one year ago. Models have more problems with the soil temp in the warmer months and also with snow cover in the winter. I did lower my total in the contest because at the moment hard to see any extended heat. Again do we get 20-30 days at 90 degrees or 20-30 days at 95 and above. At least through probably June the higher totals will very hard to reach but sure we can get in that 89-92 range especially if we continue to see decent amounts of rainfall and those overnight lows will start to rise near 70 with a moist atmosphere.

I know you keep us informed of other forums and what the talk is and for me I have this forum and that is plenty for me though I do listen to Brian in Louisville because he does a wonderful job and almost never gets over the top but with him saying he expects a hot summer it does keep my attention.

I want to be wrong as you know how I love those 90s! I did forecast a cooler 1st half of summer and a hotter 2nd half. Met Summer starts tomorrow so we'll see how it goes. Plenty of time to go to see if I am right or wrong with the call.

That -PDO is standing out like a sore thumb. We’ve seen before all it takes is one abnormally strong to record breaking telleconnection to dominate all other tellies during a season . Looks like it’s headed to record territory.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY ANGELIKA AND SNWYOWL!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddies!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri May 31, 2024 5:21 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri May 31, 2024 8:03 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri May 31, 2024 7:35 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri May 31, 2024 7:16 am Good morning Tim! I'm not sure when the heat will be switched on. Maybe late June and as we roll into the 4th of July time period. This is really a guess by me and nothing yet is set in stone since we are very far out in time.

EDIT: I am thinking that whenever the tropics decide to get busy, that should pump up the heat for us as is typically the case. But we'll see as usual.

Many times to get a hot summer the one thing you need is widespread drought over a large area. The drought has no doubt been deleted in many areas that saw it last year. That alone tempers my thoughts on a really hot summer. Sure its going to get hot sometime this summer but will it be tempered because of more vegetation and cooler soil temps than say one year ago. Models have more problems with the soil temp in the warmer months and also with snow cover in the winter. I did lower my total in the contest because at the moment hard to see any extended heat. Again do we get 20-30 days at 90 degrees or 20-30 days at 95 and above. At least through probably June the higher totals will very hard to reach but sure we can get in that 89-92 range especially if we continue to see decent amounts of rainfall and those overnight lows will start to rise near 70 with a moist atmosphere.

I know you keep us informed of other forums and what the talk is and for me I have this forum and that is plenty for me though I do listen to Brian in Louisville because he does a wonderful job and almost never gets over the top but with him saying he expects a hot summer it does keep my attention.

I want to be wrong as you know how I love those 90s! I did forecast a cooler 1st half of summer and a hotter 2nd half. Met Summer starts tomorrow so we'll see how it goes. Plenty of time to go to see if I am right or wrong with the call.

That -PDO is standing out like a sore thumb. We’ve seen before all it takes is one abnormally strong to record breaking telleconnection to dominate all other tellies during a season . Looks like it’s headed to record territory.

Good morning Bgoney! That does put a feather in the cap for a hot summer and a -PNA pattern doesn't it? I just hope we do not see that set up come this winter.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Jun 01, 2024 6:35 am HAPPY BIRTHDAY ANGELIKA AND SNWYOWL!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddies!

I echo this! Happy Birthday Ang and Snwyowl! I hope you both have a wonderful day and thanks for being part of our forum!

Good morning all! Dry air in place will delay the rainfall until this afternoon so if you have anything you need to get done, now is the time to do so. We should have a period of rain / non severe t-storms ;later this afternoon and esp by this evening and overnight. Lingering rain early Sunday then we are good to go until Tues of next week. 80s for highs Mon thru perhaps Thurs then we are back in the 70s for a couple of days behind Thursday's cold front.

Good Morning and most of the day will be dry but by late afternoon and evening a nice steady light rain should arrive. Sure maybe a period of moderate rain with a sound of thunder but nothing severe. Next week looks busy but I believe the models are still struggling on when,where and how strong some of the systems could be. My guess by Sunday once we get this system out of the way that will give the models a better handle of next weeks weather.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jun 01, 2024 8:42 am Good Morning and most of the day will be dry but by late afternoon and evening a nice steady light rain should arrive. Sure maybe a period of moderate rain with a sound of thunder but nothing severe. Next week looks busy but I believe the models are still struggling on when,where and how strong some of the systems could be. My guess by Sunday once we get this system out of the way that will give the models a better handle of next weeks weather.

Good morning Tim! Great post! Hopefully we can muster up 0.25" to 0.50" out of the deal if not more if we can get a few t-storms involved. We have a lot of dry air to overcome but the SE winds are helping Dews are into the upper 40s now. They were in the upper 30s yesterday.

PDO making a beeline to record status

Starting to see some heat advisories in the valleys of California and of course some of the deserts. Usually we don't see the advisories in the valleys until later in the season but with the active weather in the central and eastern USA plus a early heat wave in parts of Mexico we understand why this can happen. Does that heat fuel some of the activity that will come into the northwest and head across the USA. Interesting as usually its the heat from southern Texas that gets involved to start and form some decent MCS's. Will watch this over the next few days and see if there is any indication of a possible MCS or two. Either way some storminess is likely midweek and yes we can start looking at each week and hopefully getting a inch a week will help because if we see the rains on the lower end then summer is probably kicking in.

Light rain is now moving into the area. Per radar, it doesn't look like we'll see a whole lot but some light rain for a few hours this evening to dampen the dust down is a good bet.

79 for the high at CVG today, I hit 81 here. This occurred when the sun was still around midday.

Finally getting a steady light rain now.

EU was awful with its 1”+ amounts for the region .

CVG reached 79, DAY 82 and CMH 81 on Sat.

Good morning folks! Some light to mod rain scattered around in spots to start our day with some sunshine returning late this afternoon. Due to the morning rain and cloud cover, temps will only get into the mid 70s by late in the day. Rainfall amounts as of this post for my hood are in the 0.25 to 0.30" range.

CVG - 0.28"
Me - 0.30"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.31"

We will start off Monday with some patchy dense fog but eventually once that mixes out we will see a mix of clouds and sun along with much warmer temps. Low to mid 80s ought to do it along with dry conditions. We'll see the mid 80s on Tues with late day t-storm chances. Those chances will grow by Wed with likely POPS for all locations. The action begins to wind down Wed night and Thurs with only scattered coverage expected. Temps will drop from the 80s back into the 70s by the end of next week. For next weekend, scattered showers return to the forecast as we watch the possibility of an upper low impacting the region. The ULL is well north of us but spokes of energy rotate down from the north giving us cool tempos, clouds and a few scattered showers.

HAPPY 63RD BIRTHDAY BGONEY!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddy! Appreciate your analysis input, bro!

Happy Birthday Bgoney! Hope you have a wonderful day and so glad that you are a member of our forum! Your forecasting skills are top notch!!!

Happy Birthday Bgoney, hope you have a wonderful day.