Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion 2024

[tpweather]

Usually we tend to get a break in the action in July but this season we know the area is primed. The Pacific on the other hand is so quiet and has been that way for several years. No doubt something going on but keying in on that is not easy and probably many factors. The upcoming change to La Nina is acting quite nicely with India really getting hit with the monsoon season and that is good news because over the past decade they have not been hit quite as much and really can use the rainfall.

[tron777]

Two waves to talk about. None of which are threatening. One is across the S Caribbean and it has a 20% chance to develop over the next 5 days. The other is off the Cape Verde Islands way out in the Eastern ATL, and it has a 30% chance per the NHC.

[tron777]

The wave off of Africa now has a 70% chance to develop over the next 5 days per the NHC.

[tron777]

The tropical wave in the Eastern ATL is now 95L and the NHC has raised it to a 60% chance of development over the next 2 or 3 days with an 80% chance now in the next 5 days. This one has a very good chance at becoming Beryl. Most of the guidance has it impacting the Caribbean Islands next week. TBD if it makes it into the Gulf or recurves out to sea off the East Coast. Stay tuned....

[tron777]

Tropics are beginning to fire up with a Caribbean wave getting a 30% chance. The Eastern ATL wave is now a 90% chance and could become a TD here shortly. Then a new wave has just come off of Africa that has a 20% chance.

[winterstormjoe]

Depending on the southerly flow, we may have some haze here down the road. I'm sure this Sahara dust will have some effect on Atlantic tropics?

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news ... rida-texas

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

...BERYL STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 46.8W
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

Beryl is cooking along to the West. A hurricane watch is up for the island of Barbados.

[tron777]

The S Gulf wave has a 40% chance now but it will likely run into the Mexican Coast at this time. The next wave off of Africa now has a 60% chance to develop in the next 5 days. The Atlantic Season is off and running now!

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
200 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

...BERYL EXPECTED TO BECOME A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 48.4W
ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES