Absolute Vorticity

MJO phase 3 in an El Nino in March. Who knows if this is right or not? I have no clue. But, maybe, just maybe it could give us one last shot at accumulating snow. At this point, I'm in spring mode to be honest. We'll see.

dce wrote: ↑Wed Feb 28, 2024 10:35 am MJO phase 3 in an El Nino in March. Who knows if this is right or not? I have no clue. But, maybe, just maybe it could give us one last shot at accumulating snow. At this point, I'm in spring mode to be honest. We'll see.

I'm leaving in the risk of one last shot of cold air (no idea if we will see any snow or not) but that's all I''ve got. We'll see as usual if something can materialize mid to late month. Chances are of course low but not zero. So far thru the 1st half of March, the Ensemble Data looks warm.

Les with the El Nino this year and though some parts have played out okay others have been complete opposite. Australia has been wetter than a normal El Nino. Part of the problem the oceans across the earth are really warm and what we considered a normal El Nino is just not true and models along with met's will need to work harder and understand how the oceans are such a big part of the weather around the world.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 28, 2024 10:54 am Les with the El Nino this year and though some parts have played out okay others have been complete opposite. Australia has been wetter than a normal El Nino. Part of the problem the oceans across the earth are really warm and what we considered a normal El Nino is just not true and models along with met's will need to work harder and understand how the oceans are such a big part of the weather around the world.

Agreed Tim. The warm oceans are definitely causing problems for long range forecasting. I think that's been the case for several winters now.

12Z GFS has the front stalling idea too or next week. Once the front comes in early next week, the secondary low is much further east on the GFS. We get a stronger low the weekend of March 9-10th so if correct, that could be another period to watch for strong storms.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 28, 2024 10:40 am

dce wrote: ↑Wed Feb 28, 2024 10:35 am MJO phase 3 in an El Nino in March. Who knows if this is right or not? I have no clue. But, maybe, just maybe it could give us one last shot at accumulating snow. At this point, I'm in spring mode to be honest. We'll see.

I'm leaving in the risk of one last shot of cold air (no idea if we will see any snow or not) but that's all I''ve got. We'll see as usual if something can materialize mid to late month. Chances are of course low but not zero. So far thru the 1st half of March, the Ensemble Data looks warm.

I can recall a few decent snowstorms in the middle of March down through the years, but they don't happen very often. I wouldn't be surprised too see a 1-4 inch snowfall across the area sometime in March. It's certainly climatologically possible. We do average around 4-5 inches of snow for March. That being said, I don't look for it to happen this year. I'm in spring mode personally, so any lack of snow from this point on, I'm over it. Just give me a 2012 redo. Mid 80's in mid March!

dce wrote: ↑Wed Feb 28, 2024 12:38 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 28, 2024 10:40 am

dce wrote: ↑Wed Feb 28, 2024 10:35 am MJO phase 3 in an El Nino in March. Who knows if this is right or not? I have no clue. But, maybe, just maybe it could give us one last shot at accumulating snow. At this point, I'm in spring mode to be honest. We'll see.

I'm leaving in the risk of one last shot of cold air (no idea if we will see any snow or not) but that's all I''ve got. We'll see as usual if something can materialize mid to late month. Chances are of course low but not zero. So far thru the 1st half of March, the Ensemble Data looks warm.

I can recall a few decent snowstorms in the middle of March down through the years, but they don't happen very often. I wouldn't be surprised too see a 1-4 inch snowfall across the area sometime in March. It's certainly climatologically possible. We do average around 4-5 inches of snow for March. That being said, I don't look for it to happen this year. I'm in spring mode personally, so any lack of snow from this point on, I'm over it. Just give me a 2012 redo. Mid 80's in mid March!

Yep! We've had the 80s as you said back in 2012, and we've had 20s and a blizzard such as in March of 2008. March is a fickle weather month in the OV. No doubt about it. CVG even averages 4" for the month of March. I don't think that we saw any snow last year in March. The last one I recall was March 11-12, 2022 where 1-2" fell across the western half of the area and 4-6" fell in our Eastern counties.

https://www.weather.gov/iln/20220312

Anyway... I am not banking on any snow for March of 2024, but would be happy if we could sneak in a fluke storm. If it happens, it won't be in the first half of the month that is for sure.

I like what the 12z Euro is doing for next week. Front stalls just to our West and we get that secondary low tracking right on top of us for the middle of next week. If correct, it would help out in the rainfall dept.

March normals (CVG)

Wonderful post Bgoney! You can easily see how tough it is to get snow after mid month since our averages really start to climb much faster by then.

EPS 5 day temp anomaly means to mid month. Troughing out west still the dominant driver

All Ens guidance is pretty much showing the above for the next 10 to 14 days.

Light rain is likely on Fri for the ride home but I expect amounts to remain less then 0.10". Clouds could keep temps down into the 50s on Sat but Sun is still looking wonderful! Then we turn active for the first half of next week as we have been discussing. Euro has Mon dry now so the 70s are a lock of that is the case. Rain and storms likely Tues and Wed is what the model is showing. 80 is the record on Mon from 1976 and we will obviously not hit that target. We will have another system due in the weekend after that (March 9-10th). Looking mild and active!

Good Morning and no doubt this is coldest Feb 29th that I can remember in 4 years. Les has the forecast in good order and March looks very busy and though that may not bring snow it does look like several chances for rain which we will no doubt take.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 29, 2024 6:46 am Good Morning and no doubt this is coldest Feb 29th that I can remember in 4 years. Les has the forecast in good order and March looks very busy and though that may not bring snow it does look like several chances for rain which we will no doubt take.

Good morning Tim. We absolutely need the rain. The question is, how much will we get with each system and depending on timing... more strong to severe storms could also become a recurring theme as well. We may have a nice stormy spring for a change. It's been a while too.

Good Morning Les. Nice day once we get into the afternoon and expect temps to rise at least 25 degrees with the dry air and tons of sun. System on Friday is really warm air over cold pushing in and I can see some light rain but nothing major but it will be sort of a cloudy blah day. Saturday may take a little time to get the sun involved but once it comes out temps will no doubt response. Sunday and Monday look wonderful though by late Monday afternoon or evening will introduce some rain.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 29, 2024 7:35 am Good Morning Les. Nice day once we get into the afternoon and expect temps to rise at least 25 degrees with the dry air and tons of sun. System on Friday is really warm air over cold pushing in and I can see some light rain but nothing major but it will be sort of a cloudy blah day. Saturday may take a little time to get the sun involved but once it comes out temps will no doubt response. Sunday and Monday look wonderful though by late Monday afternoon or evening will introduce some rain.

We are on the same page with the forecast Tim. 21 officially at CVG this morning. Mid 40s look good for this afternoon as you mentioned with the big temp rise expected today.

12Z Euro has that secondary low next week running up the Apps. Too bad we couldn't get a set up like that back in January when we had plenty of cold air available.

Les have a wedding that day so that seems correct lol. Only 40 so far today and this shows this quick shot of cold meant business even with the late Feb sun temps struggling to rise today. That seems to be the theme over the next few weeks with mild to warm periods then rain and a quick shot of polar air and I say polar because I believe we are getting some from the polar regions and if not then Canadian air which at the moment is polar in nature.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 29, 2024 2:08 pm 12Z Euro has that secondary low next week running up the Apps. Too bad we couldn't get a set up like that back in January when we had plenty of cold air available.

That’s a slow mover too , going to be some soaking rains with it for parts of the country , depending on the track

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 29, 2024 2:35 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 29, 2024 2:08 pm 12Z Euro has that secondary low next week running up the Apps. Too bad we couldn't get a set up like that back in January when we had plenty of cold air available.

That’s a slow mover too , going to be some soaking rains with it for parts of the country , depending on the track

We need the slow mover and with the nao going negative I can see this being a slow mover. A nice 1-2 inches would do us well.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 29, 2024 2:37 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 29, 2024 2:35 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 29, 2024 2:08 pm 12Z Euro has that secondary low next week running up the Apps. Too bad we couldn't get a set up like that back in January when we had plenty of cold air available.

That’s a slow mover too , going to be some soaking rains with it for parts of the country , depending on the track

We need the slow mover and with the nao going negative I can see this being a slow mover. A nice 1-2 inches would do us well.

Guys... I'd love to see the 12z Euro pan out. That would really help us out in the rainfall dept. The green up / leaf out, etc. maybe coming earlier then normal this year thanks to the mild winter and spring like temps we have been seeing overall as a whole. Thus, my concern for the lack of rain.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 29, 2024 2:34 pm Les have a wedding that day so that seems correct lol. Only 40 so far today and this shows this quick shot of cold meant business even with the late Feb sun temps struggling to rise today. That seems to be the theme over the next few weeks with mild to warm periods then rain and a quick shot of polar air and I say polar because I believe we are getting some from the polar regions and if not then Canadian air which at the moment is polar in nature.

Hi Tim,

Congrats to the happy couple and to you and your family, bro!

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Feb 29, 2024 3:53 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 29, 2024 2:34 pm Les have a wedding that day so that seems correct lol. Only 40 so far today and this shows this quick shot of cold meant business even with the late Feb sun temps struggling to rise today. That seems to be the theme over the next few weeks with mild to warm periods then rain and a quick shot of polar air and I say polar because I believe we are getting some from the polar regions and if not then Canadian air which at the moment is polar in nature.

Hi Tim,

Congrats to the happy couple and to you and your family, bro!

Thanks Eric, hope you and your family are doing well in the new digs. Ready for baseball to say the least. I do enjoy the college bb in March but I know its nearing baseball season and plan on hitting several games this year.