Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Jan 28, 2024 10:38 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 28, 2024 10:31 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Jan 28, 2024 9:10 am Upcoming 500mb pattern for first week is a match (lag time) with phases 6/7 MJO for Feb. with a ridge in central NAmerica . I have it somewhere in my pics but haven’t located it yet

I agree. We may see a small dip in temps around the 4-6th but that would be it. I expect a warm up again after that. Sometime in the 2/10 - 2/14 time frame is when I expect the pattern to change to a colder one.

Agree, I was figuring the first 10days near average mean to at times slightly above. Certainly don’t see arctic air mass during this time

I don't see any arctic air either for a couple of weeks easily.

Tim.... I didn't see the 12Z Euro today but previous runs were also cooler than the GFS

Let’s go LIONS!!! Win it for Les!!!

Pete1 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 28, 2024 8:48 pm Let’s go LIONS!!! Win it for Les!!!

I'm worried right now Pete lol

So close but no cigar!

Also I don't know how much more Taylor Swift e.g. I can take!

Currently 35 here in G'ville and progged for around the freezing mark on Mon morning.

Hopefully our upcoming Canadian ridge pattern doesn’t last much longer than being shown

Right now... the 4-6th period looks to be dry thanks to that Canadian Ridge. Feb looks to begin on the quiet side as a result, which honestly is okay by me. My yard is a mushy swamp lol

Found the 500mb maps for the MJO phases 6-7 with positive ENSO showing how theyfit to a T (lag time) the upcoming pattern, especially 6 and then probably how we progress at 500mb once influence from 7 kicks in.

I knew Phases 6 and 7 were warm but the graphics always help with the visuals. Thanks Bgoney for posting those. As of 1/27 per the Aussies, we are getting closer to Phase 7. We should be in that phase either today or tomorrow is my guess. The amplitude is pretty high too on the wheeler plot, so it is definitely influencing the pattern, again as those visuals clearly show. You guys know my thinking on the MJO so I won't keep beating a dead horse. My continued thoughts are for very little snow lover chances for the first 10 days or so of the month. We should see better chances in Week 2. If I am rushing it, which I sometimes do, then certainly by Week 3 which would be the second half of the month.

Still have plenty of questions and what is the main driver of the current pattern. The MJO continues to move right along and each run it comes up with some funky nature to how it will stay in a certain phase and this started back in phase 2 or 3 which it did a dive to the COD but readjusted and then continued on. The problem is it still throws these ideals out and the MJO keeps tracking through the phases and in phase 7 and heading for phase 8. The models are also showing the AO go extreme positive again here in early February and I can agree with that but has it dropping off a ledge several days later. The NAO positive as well and heads towards neutral or slightly negative. So with the uptick again in the AO you will see the cold remain in Alaska through the weekend and for us we are getting some of the back end cold in eastern Canada and one reason we are not going to get very warm in the next week. Matter of fact we may see some colder air this weekend.

The pattern is really out of whack and yes it will finally adjust and we will see this with storms undercutting the ridge in the northern plans and south central Canada and cold will return. How cold is still a big question and one of the hardest things to predict since the snow cover to our northwest is very little for this time of year. I believe that is another reason the coldest of air will be more east based next round. How long does it last and again more questions than answers but sure some folks are giving up on this winter and I could not disagree more. I may be early on the return but signs pointing to a rather stormy and I believe cold February before all is said and done. This pattern though has the look of some ice storms and I will take mild before the ice storms.

We are in Phase 7 now as of 1/29 per the Aussies.

All global Ensembles have a nice pattern developing as we approach Valentine's Day. +PNA -EPO -AO and a -NAO. We shall see, but that would match up with the MJO colder phases provided it keeps trucking.

Upcoming extended dryer than normal stretch is coming at a good time for the river to recover back to lower levels

Some correlation with why the Gfs has slowed the MJO. Some nice westerlies upcoming in what are mostly phases 6/7. Notice they don’t go past the dateline through the end of forecast , so little eastward advancement during this time period

Nice look at 500 MB on the fantasy 12Z GFS today as we approach mid month and V-day time period. Big high coming in with an active STJ. Nice PNA and EPO ridging with a pseudo -NAO. I would say neutral. Nice look for OV and Mid Atlantic. Western ridge access is in the right position for us. We need to get it down to 7 days out before taking it more seriously. I'd like to see that look on an Ensemble.

Pic should be self explanatory. But I will answer any questions. The red Xs are vort maxes in the two jets that would attempt to phase if the model ran out as few more frames. It'll change in a few hours.

CPC update on MJO pretty much saying the same thing talked about here for a while

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 8:23 am CPC update on MJO pretty much saying the same thing talked about here for a while




IMG_1338.jpeg

Yeah that’s one of the big reasons I’m skeptical of any big time, sustained cold the second half of Feb. Climo also fights against it. I do think the second half of the month will be cooler than the first, but I just don’t see anything majorly cold…and definitely no sustained cold.

We don't need anything super cold for wintry precipitation of course. I do see things getting quite active again so there is still some hope for snow lovers!

Having said that, it would not surprise me at all if the 3.8" we saw a couple weeks ago at CVG will be our biggest of the season.

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 10:33 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 8:23 am CPC update on MJO pretty much saying the same thing talked about here for a while




IMG_1338.jpeg

Yeah that’s one of the big reasons I’m skeptical of any big time, sustained cold the second half of Feb. Climo also fights against it. I do think the second half of the month will be cooler than the first, but I just don’t see anything majorly cold…and definitely no sustained cold.

I agree Trevor, we may still see that thread through a needle kind of 8-1 ratio snowstorm after mid-month or early March as we could see some cold last long enough to support one with the correct phasing of the polar and the STJ. But in the long run what we've seen most of Dec and as of late will be the main pattern until the spring severe weather starts to kick in.

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 10:33 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 8:23 am CPC update on MJO pretty much saying the same thing talked about here for a while




IMG_1338.jpeg

Yeah that’s one of the big reasons I’m skeptical of any big time, sustained cold the second half of Feb. Climo also fights against it. I do think the second half of the month will be cooler than the first, but I just don’t see anything majorly cold…and definitely no sustained cold.

We don't need anything super cold for wintry precipitation of course. I do see things getting quite active again so there is still some hope for snow lovers!

Having said that, it would not surprise me at all if the 3.8" we saw a couple weeks ago at CVG will be our biggest of the season.

Pretty much where I’m at Trev , definitely can’t rule out snow chances, but as far as air masses, we can’t forget it took the MJO to go through all the cold phases and at moderate intensity for 3 of them to give us our 2 weeks worth of arctic air. Do I see that ? Not atm . I’m sure we cool down after mid month (hopefully) but arctic air into the OV would be brief if at all.

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 10:54 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 10:33 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 8:23 am CPC update on MJO pretty much saying the same thing talked about here for a while




IMG_1338.jpeg

Yeah that’s one of the big reasons I’m skeptical of any big time, sustained cold the second half of Feb. Climo also fights against it. I do think the second half of the month will be cooler than the first, but I just don’t see anything majorly cold…and definitely no sustained cold.

I agree Trevor, we may still see that thread through a needle kind of 8-1 ratio snowstorm after mid-month or early March as we could see some cold last long enough to support one with the correct phasing of the polar and the STJ. But in the long run what we've seen most of Dec and as of late will be the main pattern until the spring severe weather starts to kick in.

Agreed. All it takes is one storm, but I favor looking at what's probable versus what's possible. It is probable that 3.8" will be our biggest snow of the season (at CVG). I'm just not excited about the 2nd half of Feb as some others are.

Speaking of severe weather season, we may have an average or slightly below average tornado/severe t'storm season around here based on El Nino climo. It will of course depend on how fast this El Nino episode weakens. El Nino left side, La Nina right side.

I hope for mid month and beyond we can get into a prolonged period of a nice +PNA , a nice SEridge, and a neutral NAO pattern and roll the dice for a chance at a bigger snow fall , with just enough cold

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 11:42 am I hope for mid month and beyond we can get into a prolonged period of a nice +PNA , a nice SEridge, and a neutral NAO pattern and roll the dice for a chance at a bigger snow fall , with just enough cold

Yeah that’s about our only way to be honest. Strong Ninos are just not good to snow lovers in the OV.

And the GFS at the end of its run. A snowstorm in Mexico.

GFS and Euro look dry and mild the next 7-10 days then a cold front brings in cooler air around the 9-11th and the OP GFS and GEFS, shows light snow chances and colder air for 13-16th period. I am leaving the timing ranges a little more open to account for model variability this far out. I am trying to time the next pattern chance. I think that 2/10 - 2/15 time period is a solid call right now.