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Re: January 18-19th Accumulating Snow Threat
Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2024 10:37 am
by tron777
12Z ICON is doing the same thing. Big hit esp for folks along and SE of I-71. This model is usually not accurate but just posting it to show the high end ceiling on this event if you get some phasing to take place.
Re: January 18-19th Accumulating Snow Threat
Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2024 10:39 am
by airwolf76
and after this threat its over for all of us
Re: January 18-19th Accumulating Snow Threat
Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2024 10:42 am
by tron777
airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 10:39 am
and after this threat its over for all of us
Briefly... IMO the cold will return shortly.
Re: January 18-19th Accumulating Snow Threat
Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2024 10:54 am
by tron777
12Z GFS has a bit better interaction between the two waves then the 6Z run did. I think what helps is getting that lobe of the PV to speed up and get involved in the overall flow. This buckles the jet just enough for partial phasing on some of these better runs. With the NAM and Euro you don't get that so the flow is too fast and flat so much less in the way of precip.
Re: January 18-19th Accumulating Snow Threat
Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2024 10:55 am
by mikeyp
GFS looks very nice
Re: January 18-19th Accumulating Snow Threat
Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2024 10:56 am
by tron777
0.30" for QPF for most posters with a couple of isolated 0.40" amounts where the better banding occurs.
Re: January 18-19th Accumulating Snow Threat
Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2024 10:59 am
by tron777
In short... if you get no wave interaction, I would go with a 1-2" event for northern posters and an inch or less for southern posters. If we can get some wave interaction then a high end advisory event if not a low end warning event (depends on degree of phasing) would be in the cards. That is where we stand. At the end of the day... you blend the two ideas together, the 1-3" prelim call still holds true. Any thoughts? This is where I'm at right now.
Re: January 18-19th Accumulating Snow Threat
Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:04 am
by Trevor
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 10:59 am
In short... if you get no wave interaction, I would go with a 1-2" event for northern posters and an inch or less for southern posters. If we can get some wave interaction then a high end advisory event if not a low end warning event (depends on degree of phasing) would be in the cards. That is where we stand. At the end of the day... you blend the two ideas together, the 1-3" prelim call still holds true. Any thoughts? This is where I'm at right now.
I'm working on things here and will add my thoughts soon.
Re: January 18-19th Accumulating Snow Threat
Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:07 am
by Bgoney
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 10:59 am
In short... if you get no wave interaction, I would go with a 1-2" event for northern posters and an inch or less for southern posters. If we can get some wave interaction then a high end advisory event if not a low end warning event (depends on degree of phasing) would be in the cards. That is where we stand. At the end of the day... you blend the two ideas together, the 1-3" prelim call still holds true. Any thoughts? This is where I'm at right now.
Based on what we’ve seen so far at this stage, yea . I think everyone knows what can go wrong , and qpf fluctuating between model scenarios . I’d like to see ensembles later and especially overnight
Re: January 18-19th Accumulating Snow Threat
Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:08 am
by tron777
10-4 Trev... sounds good Bro.
12Z Canadian hammers folks north of Cincinnati. Still an advisory event for the rest of us.
Re: January 18-19th Accumulating Snow Threat
Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:20 am
by BookNerdCarp
We do not have a high percentage of success on systems phasing/interacting. it's the death punch normally.
Re: January 18-19th Accumulating Snow Threat
Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:29 am
by tron777
BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:20 am
We do not have a high percentage of success on systems phasing/interacting. it's the death punch normally.
Great post Matt and that is a fair point. This is why I think 1-3" is a good call for now until we see much model camp wins out. To your point though, I would expect the phasing to not occur and be pleasantly surprised if it does.
Re: January 18-19th Accumulating Snow Threat
Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:41 am
by snowlover
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:29 am
BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:20 am
We do not have a high percentage of success on systems phasing/interacting. it's the death punch normally.
Great post Matt and that is a fair point. This is why I think 1-3" is a good call for now until we see much model camp wins out. To your point though, I would expect the phasing to not occur and be pleasantly surprised if it does.
At this point, it would be nice just to see the grass covered! I'd take 1-3" and run with that in a heartbeat. Plus, that would make the kids happy with a potential snow day on Friday.
Re: January 18-19th Accumulating Snow Threat
Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:49 am
by Trevor
My forecast confidence isn't quite there yet so I will hold for now and wait for 18z and 00z. I'll have a map tonight more than likely.
Re: January 18-19th Accumulating Snow Threat
Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:49 am
by Trevor
Confidence for I-70 is higher, much lower down here.
Re: January 18-19th Accumulating Snow Threat
Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2024 12:07 pm
by tron777
Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:49 am
Confidence for I-70 is higher, much lower down here.
Yeah... we are depending on the wave interaction / phasing more so then the I-70 folks which can cash in from the frontogenic induced band of snow with the first wave.
Re: January 18-19th Accumulating Snow Threat
Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2024 12:09 pm
by tron777
snowlover wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:41 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:29 am
BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:20 am
We do not have a high percentage of success on systems phasing/interacting. it's the death punch normally.
Great post Matt and that is a fair point. This is why I think 1-3" is a good call for now until we see much model camp wins out. To your point though, I would expect the phasing to not occur and be pleasantly surprised if it does.
At this point, it would be nice just to see the grass covered! I'd take 1-3" and run with that in a heartbeat. Plus, that would make the kids happy with a potential snow day on Friday.
No doubt Curtis! An inch of snow would double our seasonal total at CVG it's been so sad.
Re: January 18-19th Accumulating Snow Threat
Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2024 12:15 pm
by Bgoney
6z EU had around.20” for the region , only goes 90 hrs
Re: January 18-19th Accumulating Snow Threat
Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2024 12:16 pm
by BookNerdCarp
Re: January 18-19th Accumulating Snow Threat
Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2024 12:17 pm
by fyrfyter
BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:20 am
We do not have a high percentage of success on systems phasing/interacting. it's the death punch normally.
I would agree. I have no idea what the actual percentage is, but it seems like it’s about 1% of the time, where we get the perfect phase and get a dumping of snow.
Re: January 18-19th Accumulating Snow Threat
Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2024 12:21 pm
by tron777
I checked the upper levels on the 12Z GEFS Mean and I thought it looked a bit stronger so I think a little more digging and wave interaction occurred versus the 6Z run. From a QPF standpoint, I would say most folks were in the 0.30" camp on the 12Z run with the I-70 crew having a shot closer to 0.40" but those higher amounts were isolated in nature which make sense due to mesoscale banding.
Re: January 18-19th Accumulating Snow Threat
Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2024 12:23 pm
by tron777
Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 12:15 pm
6z EU had around.20” for the region , only goes 90 hrs
That was a nice increase from the 0Z run. I would like to see the 12Z run at least hold serve if not increase.
I would definitely feel better to get the NAM and Euro on board.
Re: January 18-19th Accumulating Snow Threat
Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2024 12:26 pm
by tron777
fyrfyter wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 12:17 pm
BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:20 am
We do not have a high percentage of success on systems phasing/interacting. it's the death punch normally.
I would agree. I have no idea what the actual percentage is, but it seems like it’s about 1% of the time, where we get the perfect phase and get a dumping of snow.
Yep... we've been on a terrible run for sure over the last several years. We usually don't do "complicated" very well. Hope to see the blind squirrel actually find that nut this time LOL
Re: January 18-19th Accumulating Snow Threat
Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2024 12:34 pm
by tron777
I'll check the better UKIE maps soon (unless someone beats me to it) but thru 7am Friday, the 12Z run drops 0.20" of QPF for the region.
Re: January 18-19th Accumulating Snow Threat
Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2024 1:08 pm
by tron777
Ok so I checked the UKIE and 2-3" at a 10:1 ratio looked good for most. QPF wise, 0.20" for the Tri-state with pockets of slightly higher totals of 0.25" west and east of Cincy, so just kind of depends on where you are lol Isolated 0.30" totals along and N of I-70.
