Absolute Vorticity

dce wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 7:46 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Jan 07, 2024 11:12 pm 00z GFS...964mb...incredible! Might have to rename this La Bomba II!

They would be incredible to see. That would probably shut Indiana down for a day or two. Even Western Ohio would see impacts with winds that high with just a couple inches of snow. We need that thing to weaken just a tad for a central Ohio track. That would bring significant impacts to Western Ohio.

Good morning Doug. Once we get the La Bomba system out of the way, we should be able to lock in the track for this system which would hopefully be sometime on Wed or so.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 7:55 am

dce wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 7:46 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Jan 07, 2024 11:12 pm 00z GFS...964mb...incredible! Might have to rename this La Bomba II!

They would be incredible to see. That would probably shut Indiana down for a day or two. Even Western Ohio would see impacts with winds that high with just a couple inches of snow. We need that thing to weaken just a tad for a central Ohio track. That would bring significant impacts to Western Ohio.

Good morning Doug. Once we get the La Bomba system out of the way, we should be able to lock in the track for this system which would hopefully be sometime on Wed or so.

Good morning! For sure. With 2 sub 980 millibar systems coming through this close together, no way these tracks are locked in from a modeling standpoint. We can feel confident about tomorrow's system, but after that when we look to the medium range, in my opinion, it is tough for models to handle these kinds of extremes. Add to that, the Arctic air invading the country in about a week or so and we know the models will be subject to dramatic shifts on individual storm tracks especially in the medium range.

dce wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 8:20 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 7:55 am

dce wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 7:46 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Jan 07, 2024 11:12 pm 00z GFS...964mb...incredible! Might have to rename this La Bomba II!

They would be incredible to see. That would probably shut Indiana down for a day or two. Even Western Ohio would see impacts with winds that high with just a couple inches of snow. We need that thing to weaken just a tad for a central Ohio track. That would bring significant impacts to Western Ohio.

Good morning Doug. Once we get the La Bomba system out of the way, we should be able to lock in the track for this system which would hopefully be sometime on Wed or so.

Good morning! For sure. With 2 sub 980 millibar systems coming through this close together, no way these tracks are locked in from a modeling standpoint. We can feel confident about tomorrow's system, but after that when we look to the medium range, in my opinion, it is tough for models to handle these kinds of extremes. Add to that, the Arctic air invading the country in about a week or so and we know the models will be subject to dramatic shifts on individual storm tracks especially in the medium range.

Great point! For example the GFS has both taking an almost identical track. That doesn't seem to be the way things usually work out. One would think that the second storm would track further east. WIth such a strong push of cold air behind it, I think we may see an adjustment in the next couple of days. How much? TBD.

Great posts Doug and Trev. I am in solid agreement and I have mentioned this aspect also over the last several days. I think we can all agree on this point. We just need to see how it plays out. Once the La Bomba systems lays its snowpack down, the colder air should get a tad further to the SE. Also, we have a strong -NAO block and a strongly -AO which should also assist in driving the storm track southward. In addition, the -EPO allows for cross polar flow so Canada is going to be filling up with cold air very nicely. The -PNA is the reason we are seeing cutters in the first place, but in this case, it's a good thing otherwise, we'd be cold and dry. IMO the STJ will continue to pump these storm systems out. Each one should track a bit further to the SE as the cold air and snow pack begins building to our NW. It is only a matter of time before it is our turn to cash in with one of these storm systems.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 8:49 am Great posts Doug and Trev. I am in solid agreement and I have mentioned this aspect also over the last several days. I think we can all agree on this point. We just need to see how it plays out. Once the La Bomba systems lays its snowpack down, the colder air should get a tad further to the SE. Also, we have a strong -NAO block and a strongly -AO which should also assist in driving the storm track southward. In addition, the -EPO allows for cross polar flow so Canada is going to be filling up with cold air very nicely. The -PNA is the reason we are seeing cutters in the first place, but in this case, it's a good thing otherwise, we'd be cold and dry. IMO the STJ will continue to pump these storm systems out. Each one should track a bit further to the SE as the cold air and snow pack begins building to our NW. It is only a matter of time before it is our turn to cash in with one of these storm systems.

Great post. I am in total agreement with everything you said. Fun times continue!

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 8:51 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 8:49 am Great posts Doug and Trev. I am in solid agreement and I have mentioned this aspect also over the last several days. I think we can all agree on this point. We just need to see how it plays out. Once the La Bomba systems lays its snowpack down, the colder air should get a tad further to the SE. Also, we have a strong -NAO block and a strongly -AO which should also assist in driving the storm track southward. In addition, the -EPO allows for cross polar flow so Canada is going to be filling up with cold air very nicely. The -PNA is the reason we are seeing cutters in the first place, but in this case, it's a good thing otherwise, we'd be cold and dry. IMO the STJ will continue to pump these storm systems out. Each one should track a bit further to the SE as the cold air and snow pack begins building to our NW. It is only a matter of time before it is our turn to cash in with one of these storm systems.

Great post. I am in total agreement with everything you said. Fun times continue!

Thanks buddy! I just hope Mother Nature agrees and gets the memo. She's going to do what she's going to do regardless, but I just cannot fathom the idea of every system being a cutter. It just makes no meteorological sense given how active the pattern is. If you had more time in between each system then absolutely! We'd get enough ridging out in front for systems to cut. But I'm not seeing that occurring here.

I don't know what to believe, but last Sunday/Monday the models were showing major snow for us and to the north. By midweek it had shifted southeast. Let's hope it works out in our favor this time!

I agree with you guys. I don’t think any of the models are compensating for the flood of cold air that we know is coming. As that pushes in, I suspect that subsequent systems will start to track further South. One should be about perfect to give us a good chance at a decent snowfall.

My favorite from the weekend in back to back model runs on the gfs.

Love the discussion this morning guys! We will need to continue to analyze the models as best we can to see what trends develop as we progress throughout the week. It's not boring that is for sure regardless of the precip type.

12Z GFS gets the low down to 968 MB on this run. Incredible! This system could make La Bomba look weak. Hope everyone's power stays on! This is a big concern since our trees are weak already thanks to the drought. Now add heavy rain and wind from La Bomba plus this system's wind and this is not a good recipe IMO.

With today's 12z European the low ends up in northeast Ohio compared to lower Michigan on the 00z run. Quite a shift in placement. This particular run doesn't help us out in the snow department, but it does suggest, as we have already discussed, watching future runs for possible improvement for AV land.

dce wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 2:06 pm With today's 12z European the low ends up in northeast Ohio compared to lower Michigan on the 00z run. Quite a shift in placement. This particular run doesn't help us out in the snow department, but it does suggest, as we have already discussed, watching future runs for possible improvement for AV land.

You beat me to it Doug. Definitely a noticeable shift SE on this run. It'll be interesting to see if the EPS follows suit.

I am getting really nervous LOL. I am heading to NE Arkansas to go duck hunting Wednesday and returning Saturday afternoon. I am worried that we will not be able to get back. Any thoughts?

Good Afternoon and trying to catch up and will later this afternoon. Have not looked at anything today but I plan on opening the weather office after dinner.

cincy bud wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 3:11 pm I am getting really nervous LOL. I am heading to NE Arkansas to go duck hunting Wednesday and returning Saturday afternoon. I am worried that we will not be able to get back. Any thoughts?

Keep an eye on the forecast for your location.. It's going to be a crazy week or two for a lot of the country.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 5:05 pm

cincy bud wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 3:11 pm I am getting really nervous LOL. I am heading to NE Arkansas to go duck hunting Wednesday and returning Saturday afternoon. I am worried that we will not be able to get back. Any thoughts?

Keep an eye on the forecast for your location.. It's going to be a crazy week or two for a lot of the country.

I am more worried about the drive home.

cincy bud wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 6:23 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 5:05 pm

cincy bud wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 3:11 pm I am getting really nervous LOL. I am heading to NE Arkansas to go duck hunting Wednesday and returning Saturday afternoon. I am worried that we will not be able to get back. Any thoughts?

Keep an eye on the forecast for your location.. It's going to be a crazy week or two for a lot of the country.

I am more worried about the drive home.

I can't blame you for that

I read some of the wonderful comments concerning this system and I agree with many. This system should be further south as we get a nice layer of snow to the northwest. Models will pick up on this by Wednesday after the snow has fallen. Does this mean a big snow for us and most likely not but not to far away and talking near Indy they could end up with several inches. I believe rain later Friday but it will change overnight and would not be surprise to see a general 1-3 inches here by noon Saturday. Bigger concern is the wind and Friday looks very windy and that continues into Saturday with some blowing snow and wind chills nearing zero before the day is over. Then we have the arctic front to the south hanging around in the northern gulf states which is one place I look to every winter as this can no doubt keep us on the colder side of storms but also still close enough that the we end up with storms and not cold and dry. To early for that storm but once we get the first one out of the way on Wednesday the forum will explode with posts.

A wind advisory with this system is a slam dunk, but maybe a high wind warning? Could be close in some areas if we get a sub 970MB low.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 4:33 am A wind advisory with this system is a slam dunk, but maybe a high wind warning? Could be close in some areas if we get a sub 970MB low.

Agreed. Still think we can do a couple inches on the backside as well. I am concerned about a rapid freeze up/flash freeze. It will depend on if the wind has time do dry it up.

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 6:49 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 4:33 am A wind advisory with this system is a slam dunk, but maybe a high wind warning? Could be close in some areas if we get a sub 970MB low.

Agreed. Still think we can do a couple inches on the backside as well. I am concerned about a rapid freeze up/flash freeze. It will depend on if the wind has time do dry it up.

Exactly Trev. With the strong winds expected, I do think a flash freeze as of a lesser concern. Certainly think an inch or two of snow is possible on the backside as well. Another inch plus of rain is also a good bet with this system.

I’d like to see a more easterly (GFS)exit once it passes us , so leftover moisture lingers more in cvgland instead of lifting out quicker with a more northern exit.(EU)

What time will the winds start?

Angelika wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 7:46 am What time will the winds start?

I think winds will be increasing on Friday, ahead of the low. The strongest winds should be Fri night into the day on Sat as the low passes Fri evening then we get on the backside of the storm.