La Bomba: Jan 8-11, 2024

[tron777]

Euro seems to be in the NW Camp for guidance with a track from MO thru IN and into Lake Huron (thumb region of Mich Saginaw Bay).

[tpweather]

No doubt this will go back and forth for a few more days and probably until the first system is gone. The system is strong and though maybe not a bomb it will be close. This system will cut north but is it a western,central or eastern lakes cutter. Way too early but imo this does have the chance to put down some blizzard conditions somewhere in the great lakes/ohio valley. Like Les has mentioned this could start as snow then switch to rain and then once the system passes buy the cold air wraps in around and we switch to snow again with falling temps.

[tron777]

No doubt this will go back and forth for a few more days and probably until the first system is gone. The system is strong and though maybe not a bomb it will be close. This system will cut north but is it a western,central or eastern lakes cutter. Way too early but imo this does have the chance to put down some blizzard conditions somewhere in the great lakes/ohio valley. Like Les has mentioned this could start as snow then switch to rain and then once the system passes buy the cold air wraps in around and we switch to snow again with falling temps.

Nice post Tim! The track of the low will determine how much and for how long, each of those precip types. We should see some pretty good winds too depending on how strong the low gets. It should be a more challenging system for us to get right.

[Trevor]

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[tron777]

18Z GFS has a St. Louis to N Indiana to just S of The Thumb in Lower Mich. Models seem to be converging on that particular track. There is still time for the track to shift north or south but for now, anyway that is looking good. That would mean snow to rain then back to snow for us along with quite a bit of wind due to the strength of the low. This low will be strengthening as it moves thru versus weakening. I also think winds will gust to 45 mph at least, maybe 50. Rainfall amounts could easily be in that 1/2 to 1" range with this system so a much needed soaker for drought concerns. I think snow moves in Mon night and quickly changes to rain early Tues morning. A wet and windy AM Commute is in the cards on Tuesday then we change back to snow Tues night into Wed with falling temps behind the cold front. I don't see much in the way of accum. maybe up to 1" on the backside. These are my early prelim thoughts subject to change since we are still a ways out.

[tpweather]

Les I do believe before all is said and done some blizzard watches and probably warnings will occur in the great lakes and yes maybe parts of the Ohio Valley. Models once again tend to be conservative when these storms are strengthening. This piece of energy has tons of wind involved and with a deepening system colder air can rush into these systems. Around here you normally get a quick warm up and would not be surprised to see low 50's sometime on Tuesday but likewise would not be surprised if by Wednesday morning we are in the mid-20's and a few inches on the ground which will be one that is wind driven as well. Again most likely this far out for those blizzard conditions are to the northwest through Illinois and Wisconsin into lower Michigan but as we have seen this season systems tend to be further east but again most are weakening and not getting stronger like this system.

[tron777]

Les I do believe before all is said and done some blizzard watches and probably warnings will occur in the great lakes and yes maybe parts of the Ohio Valley. Models once again tend to be conservative when these storms are strengthening. This piece of energy has tons of wind involved and with a deepening system colder air can rush into these systems. Around here you normally get a quick warm up and would not be surprised to see low 50's sometime on Tuesday but likewise would not be surprised if by Wednesday morning we are in the mid-20's and a few inches on the ground which will be one that is wind driven as well. Again most likely this far out for those blizzard conditions are to the northwest through Illinois and Wisconsin into lower Michigan but as we have seen this season systems tend to be further east but again most are weakening and not getting stronger like this system.

I agree Tim... if the low gets as strong as is currently expected by the models, Blizzard Watches and then warnings will most certainly be issued for parts of MO, ILL, and Northern Lower Mich.

[Closet Meteorologist]

I’m sure this is too early to ask, but do yall think this will cause travel issues in our area?

[tron777]

I’m sure this is too early to ask, but do yall think this will cause travel issues in our area?

From a snow standpoint, we'll have to see what the track looks like for backside prospects. More wind / rain then anything right now for Tuesday. But, the track is not locked in yet so check back. It'll take a couple more days on that.

[tpweather]

I’m sure this is too early to ask, but do yall think this will cause travel issues in our area?

Great Question. No doubt plenty of wind and may get that first thump of snow when the systems starts. What happens when the cold air rushes in later Tuesday and this is always a timing issue when you have lots of wind. Many time with strong winds the roads can dry up but if the cold rushes in too quickly roads can get slick and most likely at least a layer of snow and wind driven as well.

[airwolf76]

either way next week looks to be a wild ride this storm is a big dawg

[tron777]

The wrap around snow on the 0Z GFS for Tues night into Wed looked a little more interesting. That backs up my up to 1" call pretty nicely.

[tpweather]

The wrap around snow on the 0Z GFS for Tues night into Wed looked a little more interesting. That backs up my up to 1" call pretty nicely.

Les you know the accumulation may not be the big issue but with the wind and big drop in temperature we always need to watch for a flash freeze. With many storms you sometimes get the period of a few hours where the wind helps dry up the surface. This system is still 5 days away but my gut tells me we will have some travel issues late Tuesday and Wednesday. Still believe the models may be underestimating the winds with this system but lets see in a couple of days how that is starting to pan out.

[tron777]

The wrap around snow on the 0Z GFS for Tues night into Wed looked a little more interesting. That backs up my up to 1" call pretty nicely.

Les you know the accumulation may not be the big issue but with the wind and big drop in temperature we always need to watch for a flash freeze. With many storms you sometimes get the period of a few hours where the wind helps dry up the surface. This system is still 5 days away but my gut tells me we will have some travel issues late Tuesday and Wednesday. Still believe the models may be underestimating the winds with this system but lets see in a couple of days how that is starting to pan out.

Also, the further SE track of the strengthening surface low is still a trend on the models which also peaks my interest. I wonder how much more that will be? The more SE it goes, the more of a wintry threat we receive.

[tpweather]

The wrap around snow on the 0Z GFS for Tues night into Wed looked a little more interesting. That backs up my up to 1" call pretty nicely.

Les you know the accumulation may not be the big issue but with the wind and big drop in temperature we always need to watch for a flash freeze. With many storms you sometimes get the period of a few hours where the wind helps dry up the surface. This system is still 5 days away but my gut tells me we will have some travel issues late Tuesday and Wednesday. Still believe the models may be underestimating the winds with this system but lets see in a couple of days how that is starting to pan out.

Also, the further SE track of the strengthening surface low is still a trend on the models which also peaks my interest. I wonder how much more that will be? The more SE it goes, the more of a wintry threat we receive.

What has been the trend this season is more of a southeast trend the closer we get. Part of that is systems have not developed as strong and we would expect it to be further south. This storm has my interest big time just because the pressure is expected to be really low and models have a hard time when you start talking about pressures in the 99p/c range or saying this could be a top 1 p/c low pressure for some areas.

[tron777]

The wrap around snow on the 0Z GFS for Tues night into Wed looked a little more interesting. That backs up my up to 1" call pretty nicely.

Les you know the accumulation may not be the big issue but with the wind and big drop in temperature we always need to watch for a flash freeze. With many storms you sometimes get the period of a few hours where the wind helps dry up the surface. This system is still 5 days away but my gut tells me we will have some travel issues late Tuesday and Wednesday. Still believe the models may be underestimating the winds with this system but lets see in a couple of days how that is starting to pan out.

Also, the further SE track of the strengthening surface low is still a trend on the models which also peaks my interest. I wonder how much more that will be? The more SE it goes, the more of a wintry threat we receive.

What has been the trend this season is more of a southeast trend the closer we get. Part of that is systems have not developed as strong and we would expect it to be further south. This storm has my interest big time just because the pressure is expected to be really low and models have a hard time when you start talking about pressures in the 99p/c range or saying this could be a top 1 p/c low pressure for some areas.

The energy for this system is coming from the Gulf of Alaska and I read via the great Tom Skilling's Facebook page last night, that the surface low in the Gulf of Alaska was very strong and it was setting low pressure records in S Alaska.

[tron777]

The plot thickens... 12Z GFS tracks the low up I-71 now. CMC is even further SE than that! Very interesting....

[Trevor]

Les the GFS gives us a 6"+ blast of heavy snow before the changeover.

[Trevor]

A few of us have been harping on this thing trending further east and colder and we are seeing that happen. Good work so far!

[tron777]

Les the GFS gives us a 6"+ blast of heavy snow before the changeover.

La Excited!

[tron777]

A few of us have been harping on this thing trending further east and colder and we are seeing that happen. Good work so far!

As a forum, we've been handling this system probably better then the weekend one from a distance standpoint. I love what I am seeing my friend. I'm actually more interested in this system versus the weekend one lol

[tron777]

12Z EPS tracks the low just NW of us thru IN, Dayton on up into the Western Basin of Lake Erie.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and wanted to talk more about this system and why I believe this may be a blizzard for portions of the great lakes and maybe Ohio Valley. Such a deep low with tons of energy which includes strong winds. Tons of precip and that will include heavy rain on the east side and heavy snow on the west side of the low. The only problem is lack of true arctic air but when you get a system this strong it can bring down tons of cold air.

This system should really bring in some cold true arctic air to the lower 48 and somewhere it will stall out over the gulf states. This is key for ongoing systems as we will be in a southwest flow because of the STJ but will have cold in place that is true arctic air. This is wonderful news for winter weather around here.

The AO is predicted to go very negative and if we were not in the El Nino with the strong STJ this would be cold and dry. But with the STJ still full force we are getting systems to head into the cold air. This is what happen in the 76-77 and 77-78 winters when we had a weak El Nino. So not exactly the same but I want to see if this pans out and I do believe models will continue to get colder and colder as more snow is slated for the more areas in the lower 48.

Will this turn out like those 2 years and very unlikely but again I believe this pattern gives us better chances than I have seen in years for January. Maybe a little wish casting but most on here that love winter weather will do that once in awhile but the main item is the pattern looks to be shaping up quite nicely.

What could hurt this forecast and the MJO is forecast to head into phase 3 then 4 over the next couple of weeks. Normally not the best phase for us but I need to get more info on that because it seems a little out of whack.

[tron777]

Wonderful post Tim! I feel pretty confident with my snow to rain then back to snow call for this system. I will have a better idea on amounts and timing this weekend, but it probably won't be too far from what I have already posted in this thread.

[tpweather]

Nice to see that parts of Nebraska and Kansas are already throwing out Winter Storm Watches for the big storm next week. Doing this over 48 hours in advance is something you don't see often.