Definitely Joe! An inch or two on some of those slides for sure which beats anything we've seen yet thus far.
This one has a ways to go yet before we know exactly how much phasing, if any, we will see. We should continue to favor the S Apps for the best action, but I am keeping my one eye open for us locally all the same. We'll see what the Euro does here shortly as it has lead the way, possibility wise.
The southern shortwave is suppressed though so it's cold and dry on this run. It tried on the 6th-7th but a swing and a miss.
Sure hope to see more out of you Daniel! Perhaps, you are the good luck charm that we need!Microburst wrote: ↑Fri Dec 29, 2023 10:57 pm I'm back! I will be posting more soon!
I'm hoping we get a snowstorm in January.
Folks... the pattern is already changing to a more active one. That is step #1. We have seasonably cold air in place so these first couple of events are marginal. If we get the big cutter, or bomb cyclone as Trev is calling it, then we will have arctic air to work with to go along with the active pattern and that is what has been missing as you all know. The cold air. Good morning Tim! Welcome Home and glad you made it back safely! I am going to grab another cup of coffee then check the Ensemble members a little more closely to see if we can gain any trends on the first two threats.tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Dec 30, 2023 8:22 am Good Morning Les and left yesterday afternoon and ran into some snow near Indy but nothing was sticking as temps were well above 32. Love your posts this morning and no doubt we will be busy and my guess a few surprises in store as these southern systems can be very tricky especially if there is any energy to the north. Getting arctic air in the lower 48 is key into getting stronger systems and by mid-month or so that looks very possible. Will post more later today as I am back in the weather office lol
I think 3/4th is a swing and a miss. 6/7th has peaked my interest, though. More of a realistic chance with that one.tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 30, 2023 8:07 am Good morning all! Things are starting to look quite a bit busier in the medium and longer term periods. Not everyone of these threats are going to yield snow in our backyards. So please keep that in mind as I list the potential items that IMO we need to be watching.
Jan 3-4th - I mentioned this one more in depth yesterday. This thread has faded a little on the guidance but I'm not quite ready to throw in the towel or declare this one dead just yet. I'd like to give it another day or two then go from there. We are still watching for any potential phasing and / or how far north the southern wave comes to bring moisture our way.
Jan 6-7th - This is another S slider that could bring in some light snow to the area on the northern fringe of the rain shield. GFS, GEFS, and CMC bring in some light snow to the area where the Euro is a bit more suppressed with the rain shield.
Jan 10-11th - This is the big bomb cyclone that Trev and I have discussed that brings about a full on pattern change and dumps a big chunk of arctic air into the region for future systems to work with. Depending on the track and timing, this could be a t-storm event, a rain to snow event or just a rain maker only in general. This looks to be a strong system so windy conditions will also need to be factored into the forecast.
Jan 12-13th - The GFS has been showing a follow up system tracking along the arctic front once it's to our East. Depending on where the boundary is and how strong the low gets, a snow storm is possible with this system.
Busy enough for you?
So far Trev, the guidance has trended that way. Hope to see the 6-7th pan out since we have a bit more cold air to work with versus the 3rd-4th.
What's nice is that we have multiple threats down the pipeline. Plenty to watch! I hope everyone is ready for heartbreak AND joy! Probably will have both
That is typical for sure Trev in the OV. Recently, it's been more heart break versus joy but we'll see what 2024 brings here soon. 3/4th threat is dead on the OP GFS. We are almost to the 6th-7th though here in the next few mins.Trevor wrote: ↑Sat Dec 30, 2023 10:55 amWhat's nice is that we have multiple threats down the pipeline. Plenty to watch! I hope everyone is ready for heartbreak AND joy! Probably will have both
The northern low remaining stronger versus dying out is the problem on this run. It all but vanished/absorbed into the southern low on the 6z run.
That system will have impacts not only on how much cold air comes down behind it, but the initial follow up wave for the 12-13th I talked about this morning.
