Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 2:30 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 1:44 pm Les we are on the same page but we are probably about 50 miles different on where some heavier rains may fall on Thursday. Sort of watching the radar and it seems to me the heaviest rains have shifted a hair further northeast than models were showing. Again this could just be a short term shift or do we see this continue later today and overnight. Still have some decent heat in the southern plains and its early August so I tend to forecast a little further north than models show plus with a low pressure that may stay the same strength I can see the rain shield a tad further north. Again we are only talking 50 miles but it could mean the difference between a dry Thursday for somebody or a nice light to moderate rain at times.

No doubt Tim. With this set up, just like with snow in the winter, the cut off will be sharp and steep. We can agree on that 100%. All we differ on as you mentioned is the location. I want to be wrong since we need the rain. I'm watching the radar loop right now as I write this post and you are correct, it is definitely trying to push further NE then what the models showed. However, it is weakening and "drying up" if you will as it pushes into our drier airmass away from the deeper moisture source, IMO that has been the entire problem for us. We'll just have to wait and see how things look in the morning. That help us better pin point the location.

Great point Les about the moisture weakening as it heads east. I do believe there will be a rather strong increase in moisture overnight and Thursday but again will the system itself tend to head for the more moist air which is further south. Moisture usually weakens mid-day but again dew points are still rather low around 60 for us and Indy.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 2:44 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 2:30 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 1:44 pm Les we are on the same page but we are probably about 50 miles different on where some heavier rains may fall on Thursday. Sort of watching the radar and it seems to me the heaviest rains have shifted a hair further northeast than models were showing. Again this could just be a short term shift or do we see this continue later today and overnight. Still have some decent heat in the southern plains and its early August so I tend to forecast a little further north than models show plus with a low pressure that may stay the same strength I can see the rain shield a tad further north. Again we are only talking 50 miles but it could mean the difference between a dry Thursday for somebody or a nice light to moderate rain at times.

No doubt Tim. With this set up, just like with snow in the winter, the cut off will be sharp and steep. We can agree on that 100%. All we differ on as you mentioned is the location. I want to be wrong since we need the rain. I'm watching the radar loop right now as I write this post and you are correct, it is definitely trying to push further NE then what the models showed. However, it is weakening and "drying up" if you will as it pushes into our drier airmass away from the deeper moisture source, IMO that has been the entire problem for us. We'll just have to wait and see how things look in the morning. That help us better pin point the location.

Great point Les about the moisture weakening as it heads east. I do believe there will be a rather strong increase in moisture overnight and Thursday but again will the system itself tend to head for the more moist air which is further south. Moisture usually weakens mid-day but again dew points are still rather low around 60 for us and Indy.

Thank you Tim and that is indeed my fear, what you just posted. The moisture over us will increase tomorrow for sure as dews rise into the 60s. Not expecting dews to get to that ridiculous mid and upper 70s nonsense, but the upper 60s or so I can certainly see happening. Also, keep an eye on the PWATS too. Very dry right now for us for the time of year at under 1" (0.8 to 0.9" to be exact). The better PWATS are down to our SW in the St. louis, Paducah, Evansville corridor. PWATS of over 2" exist in this region and thus, the reason for the heavy rainfall that that area has been receiving. We need that corridor of moisture here for heavy rainfall so let's see how the PWATS as well as the dewpoints look tomorrow.

83 at CVG, 85 in my backyard. ILN has chance POPS tomorrow, Friday and on Sunday with likely POPS Sunday night. That looks good to me and fits in with my thoughts from earlier. If the timing is delayed, we could get a sneaky 90 on Sunday so something to watch there.

EDIT: I'm also wondering about the severe wx prospects too. Something else to keep an eye on should this slower timing be correct.

Got to 84 at CVG, 83 DAY and 82 CMH.

Good morning all! The call I laid out looks great. Mainly dry for us until Sunday. Highest shot looks to be Sun night and Monday. Strong storms are definitely a possibility also. Looking at 90 Sat and Sun being possible as well. Then we are back into the 80s behind that front for some nice weather for the middle of next week.

Good Morning Les and your call was dead on. Looks like Louisville was the cutoff for rainfall. Hopefully we get some rainfall over the weekend. Much muggier today but not horrible.Looks like mid-80's today and upper 80's Friday and Saturday. Not sure we can reach 90 as the airport like myself is rather good with vegetation. Do we see 90 on Sunday and probably not but the overnight low Sunday morning gives us a better shot if the incoming cold front slows up. Next week back in the 80's and less humidity. Don't tell CNN or MSNBC about the weather around here this summer.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Aug 03, 2023 8:19 am Good Morning Les and your call was dead on. Looks like Louisville was the cutoff for rainfall. Hopefully we get some rainfall over the weekend. Much muggier today but not horrible.Looks like mid-80's today and upper 80's Friday and Saturday. Not sure we can reach 90 as the airport like myself is rather good with vegetation. Do we see 90 on Sunday and probably not but the overnight low Sunday morning gives us a better shot if the incoming cold front slows up. Next week back in the 80's and less humidity. Don't tell CNN or MSNBC about the weather around here this summer.

Thanks so much Tim! I was bound to get one forecast right sooner or later. Saturday may hold a better chance at 90 as I think we'll see more sunshine versus Sunday ahead of that next front. It'll be close though. I could see 88 or 89 happening as well.

Yeah no doubt about your last sentence there! It's pretty classic for an oncoming El Nino as we both have mentioned in the past. It's not really a shock to us whatsoever. The questions for us going forward, which we are discussing in the new El Nino thread, is how long does this +PNA pattern persist? It'll be interesting to watch in the next few months.

86 here today, CVG topped out at 85. ILN now has CVG forecast to hit 90 tomorrow and Sat with the U80s on Sun since we'll have chance POPS late in the day. Sun night into Mon is still looking good for storms for most locations. Tues and Wed are lovely in the lower 80s with lower humidity. Rain chances return as we head towards the end of next week.

SPC is seeing what I'm seeing and we are already outlooked for severe wx chances on Sunday. IMO it is really for Sun night, but whatever.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 03, 2023 6:05 pm 86 here today, CVG topped out at 85. ILN now has CVG forecast to hit 90 tomorrow and Sat with the U80s on Sun since we'll have chance POPS late in the day. Sun night into Mon is still looking good for storms for most locations. Tues and Wed are lovely in the lower 80s with lower humidity. Rain chances return as we head towards the end of next week.

SPC is seeing what I'm seeing and we are already outlooked for severe wx chances on Sunday. IMO it is really for Sun night, but whatever.


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Yep its too bad its timing is a nocturnal one again. Need the rain though!

Reached 86 at CVG, 89'ed DAY and 87 CMH.

Still looking like that late Sunday into Monday time frame is our best shot for rain and storms as well as severe wx. We will need to start diving more into he details over the weekend on this next event.

85 with a dew of 65 as of 1pm at CVG. We shall see if we can hit 90 today for the contest. We could use it since most of us have went higher with the number of 90 degree days then what has actually occurred up until this point. 90s should be far and few between for August just like it has been for the entire summer. We avg 22 days at or above 90 and CVG stands at 6 going into today.

12Z NAM has storms Sat night into Sunday. A break then another round on Monday. The 12Z GFS is showing the same thing.

12Z Euro shows the same thing Sat night that the other two models have shown. The Euro differs when we get to Sun night as it has a squall line of storms from near the river and points SW from there. Then on Monday, the low is a bit further north so if correct, Southern counties would be dry and all the action stays north of Cincy.

My thoughts are this: If we get that first round Sat night into early Sun, then I could see most of Sun being dry as we heat up and get ready for the second round either Sun night or during the day on Monday with that next low / cold front that swings thru. If we do not see anything Sat night into early Sun, then I think we are fair game for severe wx late Sun into Sun night. All areas have a shot of storms and heavy rain on Monday also.

In the extended... all models show our next system on Thursday of next week swinging thru with a good chance again for heavy rain and possible strong storms. So we've got a little down time right now but it won't last long.

88 now as of 4pm. Do we get 89'ed at the 5pm climate report or can we get a sneaky 90 in there? We shall soon find out.

Been the driest May, June, July IMBY that I can remember. Giant corn field next to me isn’t going to amount to much, looks pitiful

Well shoot. 88 at CVG was all we could do. So nothing for the contest. I got 89'ed though.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Aug 04, 2023 5:04 pm Been the driest May, June, July IMBY that I can remember. Giant corn field next to me isn’t going to amount to much, looks pitiful



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OMG! It is like night and day between the Western areas of our forum and the Eastern areas where you're at.

This is the May 6-Aug 4 timeframe precipitation anomaly. There are some have's but quite a few have not's. Strangely the Columbus area seems to be doing pretty well and likewise much of central Kentucky....the rest of us not so much!

CVG got really lucky a couple of times in July to get that 8" total for the month. I live 3 miles S of the Airport and didn't get that much at all. I only got like 5 or 6" which is still above avg mind you, but it goes to show how localized the summer rains have been this season. From 0 to getting flooded out has kind of been what has happened. Look at the corridor from St. Louis > Paducah > Western TN, etc... pounding after pounding of MCS's. Fulton Co KY got another 11" of rain yesterday as an example. It's like if you are getting wet you will continue to get wet. If you are dry you will continue to be dry. Until we can get something to change things up, such as the tropics, I don't see much changing in the future. There have been some hints come mid Aug of the tropics trying to get involved, but that's a week to two weeks out so it's one of those keep one eye open kind of deals.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 04, 2023 3:44 pm 12Z Euro shows the same thing Sat night that the other two models have shown. The Euro differs when we get to Sun night as it has a squall line of storms from near the river and points SW from there. Then on Monday, the low is a bit further north so if correct, Southern counties would be dry and all the action stays north of Cincy.

My thoughts are this: If we get that first round Sat night into early Sun, then I could see most of Sun being dry as we heat up and get ready for the second round either Sun night or during the day on Monday with that next low / cold front that swings thru. If we do not see anything Sat night into early Sun, then I think we are fair game for severe wx late Sun into Sun night. All areas have a shot of storms and heavy rain on Monday also.

In the extended... all models show our next system on Thursday of next week swinging thru with a good chance again for heavy rain and possible strong storms. So we've got a little down time right now but it won't last long.

To me it looks like It’s the same old scenario ( timing) , of weakening clusters turning into isolated hit or miss t-showers, turning into nothing the further east you go.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Aug 04, 2023 5:51 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 04, 2023 3:44 pm 12Z Euro shows the same thing Sat night that the other two models have shown. The Euro differs when we get to Sun night as it has a squall line of storms from near the river and points SW from there. Then on Monday, the low is a bit further north so if correct, Southern counties would be dry and all the action stays north of Cincy.

My thoughts are this: If we get that first round Sat night into early Sun, then I could see most of Sun being dry as we heat up and get ready for the second round either Sun night or during the day on Monday with that next low / cold front that swings thru. If we do not see anything Sat night into early Sun, then I think we are fair game for severe wx late Sun into Sun night. All areas have a shot of storms and heavy rain on Monday also.

In the extended... all models show our next system on Thursday of next week swinging thru with a good chance again for heavy rain and possible strong storms. So we've got a little down time right now but it won't last long.

To me it looks like It’s the same old scenario ( timing) , of weakening clusters turning into isolated hit or miss t-showers, turning into nothing the further east you go.

Absolutely! I wouldn't rule that out either since that has been the trend for the last few months. We could see several clusters in the region on Sunday which could ruin the severe threat. Or we see nothing at all and heat up for a nighttime event. Definitely a few different scenarios that could unfold, but at the same time, persistence could also rule the day as you mentioned.

CVG reached 88, DAY 90'ed and CMH 89'ed.

Good Morning and lets hope more folks get hit with some rain over the next 48-60 hours. Looks like the amount of clouds will most likely stop us from hitting 90 and getting later in the season so it may be hard to see and extended period of heat. Next few days are not typical of August since we may see a low pressure move through here that can bring severe weather which may include a few tornado's. Even if we don't see the tornado's some heavy rain can fall and if we get the training some areas could see minor flooding. Later Monday the front passes and we get a few days of nice weather with lower humidity but the pattern looks to repeat late next week with more storms possible.

Slight risk has been trimmed back encompassing the Tri-state southward with the MV in Marginal.

Good morning folks! We fell short on the contest yesterday and another close call today. 88 wouldn't surprise me yet again either. More importantly, let's discuss storm chances and severe wx chances thru Monday. For today, I continue to expect dry conditions with a very humid atmosphere. We should see a decaying line of storms approaching from the West tonight in that 10pm to 1am range. I think what Bgoney posted yesterday is going to be correct unfortunately. Then, we should be mainly dry for a while on Sunday after that, while we warm up again for the next round. Guidance differs here. Do we see something in the afternoon on Sunday to tamper down the severe threat or do we remain dry and can heat up enough for action overnight? Then on Monday, the region should see more action. Early in the West and during the afternoon for our Eastern counties as the severe threat moves into the Apps / Mid Atlantic region.

Then... a drop in humidity briefly with a nice looking Tuesday! Late Wed chance POPS return with a good shot at heavy rain and strong storms again by Thursday, wrapping up early Friday. A small break then I think by late next weekend or so, we get the next front that moves in. So a busier pattern I think, but do we continue to see Western areas getting the most rain and folks out East continue to get the shaft? It is a concern for sure as Bgoney mentioned and the guidance is showing it as well. As usual, we watch and wait.