Absolute Vorticity

Happy Birthday Doug! Hope you had a great day today!

Happy Birthday Doug! Hope your day is wonderful

Good Afternoon and finally the sun broke out and turning out to be rather nice. So I mentioned the severe weather possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Today I am a little less concern though any severe weather we need to watch. Two things and one is the low pressure itself seems to be even further northwest than what showed yesterday and then timing is very tricky. At this point it may be an early Wednesday time period when the front comes through and that would most likely keep the severe threat down some. Plenty of fuel this time and a much warmer set up with the dew points that should be well into the 60's on Tuesday. Still need a trigger and though we may see a few storms pop up Tuesday afternoon with some heavier downpours the main event seems to be west once again. Also the way things are set up its similar to this past Friday as you sort of get a split between where the most likely severe weather will occur and one being southwest of us and one northwest.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Apr 02, 2023 4:28 pm Good Afternoon and finally the sun broke out and turning out to be rather nice. So I mentioned the severe weather possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Today I am a little less concern though any severe weather we need to watch. Two things and one is the low pressure itself seems to be even further northwest than what showed yesterday and then timing is very tricky. At this point it may be an early Wednesday time period when the front comes through and that would most likely keep the severe threat down some. Plenty of fuel this time and a much warmer set up with the dew points that should be well into the 60's on Tuesday. Still need a trigger and though we may see a few storms pop up Tuesday afternoon with some heavier downpours the main event seems to be west once again. Also the way things are set up its similar to this past Friday as you sort of get a split between where the most likely severe weather will occur and one being southwest of us and one northwest.

People in those particular regions. Prayers with them all as they sure don't need it again on the proverbial chin.

Some of the destruction from Fri included a theater roof that collapsed during a heavy metal concert in Belvidere, IL that killed 1 and injured 28 others.

Good Morning and the first full week of April looks busy and very typical for this time of year with warmth followed by a shot of colder air. Today some scattered showers are likely but not a total washout by any means and some folks may end up dry. Tuesday is the surge of warmth into the area and this can lead to some showers as well though I expect more sun later in the day and temps probably near 80.

The storm in the central plains along with the cold front continues to slow down. A few changes in terms of severe weather as Tuesday night should be okay though we may end up with the leftovers from storms west of us and that would continue into Wednesday morning. Again always a chance of a severe storm with any thunderstorm but not expecting anything widespread during this time period.

Wednesday has become the interesting day and could have some leftovers from Tuesday night and this could play a big part in getting severe weather later in the afternoon and evening as the front approaches. Since the system has trended further north and west over the past day or so I believe this may cut down on the severe weather in our area. Saying that the timing looks to be in the afternoon or evening with the front so that timing helps in terms of severe weather.

Had a few light showers earlier. Expecting 70 today! a few more storms possible tomorrow. Wed is our wet day with possible strong storms. Then cooler and drier towards the end of the week. Easter looking good at this time.

Wanted to get an update as to what you guys are thinking severe weather wise for the Sullivan Indiana area as to timing. My son is a supervisor for the Local Dominoes in that town thankfully he was not there Friday night and all of his employees have been accounted for. His building did not suffer much damage and has been supplying pizza to first responders and those who have lost everything. I told him the weather was looking interesting for that area again and he was asking about the timing as you can imagine cell service is an issue. To be honest it was sketchy on a good day out there, anyhow any insights would be appreciated. Thanks in advance

Pepper wrote: ↑Mon Apr 03, 2023 9:35 am Wanted to get an update as to what you guys are thinking severe weather wise for the Sullivan Indiana area as to timing. My son is a supervisor for the Local Dominoes in that town thankfully he was not there Friday night and all of his employees have been accounted for. His building did not suffer much damage and has been supplying pizza to first responders and those who have lost everything. I told him the weather was looking interesting for that area again and he was asking about the timing as you can imagine cell service is an issue. To be honest it was sketchy on a good day out there, anyhow any insights would be appreciated. Thanks in advance

Scattered storms early this week with the best chance of severe coming Wed afternoon and evening is kind of the early thinking.

Great Video from Brian. He touched on everything we talked about here and agree we will get into a cooler setup and if you get the correct location of an upper system you can get a day in the upper 30's and low 40's with rain. Of course you must be in the perfect spot and outside the upper system you would be in the 50's or low 60's. Glad to get some more rain and hopefully less of a severe threat as well.

I sure hope it warms up in 2 weeks for my Lake Erie trip. Some 60s and 70s would be welcome. Last year was so rainy, cold and windy. Was tough!

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 03, 2023 10:14 am I sure hope it warms up in 2 weeks for my Lake Erie trip. Some 60s and 70s would be welcome. Last year was so rainy, cold and windy. Was tough!

Les I hope so as well but at the moment not looking great but we know how quickly things can change in April. April and May are known for back door cold fronts as eastern Canada is usually the last place to warm up and those fronts sometimes get bogged down in the Ohio Valley for a few days with the north and east side having 30's and 40's while south and west 60's and 70's.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Apr 03, 2023 10:19 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 03, 2023 10:14 am I sure hope it warms up in 2 weeks for my Lake Erie trip. Some 60s and 70s would be welcome. Last year was so rainy, cold and windy. Was tough!

Les I hope so as well but at the moment not looking great but we know how quickly things can change in April. April and May are known for back door cold fronts as eastern Canada is usually the last place to warm up and those fronts sometimes get bogged down in the Ohio Valley for a few days with the north and east side having 30's and 40's while south and west 60's and 70's.

Cut off low's can be tough to deal with also on the spring months. I'm hoping that doesn't occur at the least for the week that I'm gone lol

60 as of 2pm, but temps will soar now with a decent amount of sunshine out there! GFS this afternoon has a cut off low next week but then its gone the week after that and we warm up. That solution is a good one for my trip should it hold. But first things first. We need to deal with Wednesday. A little too early to nail down the exact timing but I think this next system bears a lit of similarities to last week's. One major difference is warmer air is getting involved so we'll see if that can help out our chances a bit better this go around. As usual, we shall see.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 03, 2023 2:29 pm 60 as of 2pm, but temps will soar now with a decent amount of sunshine out there! GFS this afternoon has a cut off low next week but then its gone the week after that and we warm up. That solution is a good one for my trip should it hold. But first things first. We need to deal with Wednesday. A little too early to nail down the exact timing but I think this next system bears a lit of similarities to last week's. One major difference is warmer air is getting involved so we'll see if that can help out our chances a bit better this go around. As usual, we shall see.

Hey Les I agree there are some similar aspects of the upcoming system to last Friday. Timing may help in bringing up the severe threat on Wednesday. The main energy though looks to be further northwest with this system and the further you get away from the main energy usually this helps keep the severe threat down somewhat. No doubt the warmer aspect this time which sometimes can help with added fuel but also you don't always get the mix of cold and warm in different layers of the atmosphere. My thoughts are we can get a pop up storm or two on Tuesday but not everyone will see rain but it will be warm and muggy. Wednesday morning we may get the leftovers from a complex to the west. If that area keeps us cloudy for a longer time on Wednesday then the afternoon threat will decrease. I believe we do break out with sun again and temps rather toasty. I expect more in the way of thundershowers and yes some stronger thunderstorms with heavy rain. Tornado's imo is somewhat limited but again always need to put that in a forecast

This is the anniversary of the 1974 Tornado Outbreak which is my number one weather event but the anniversary that is the most important is my wife and I had our first date on April 3rd 1980 and she still has not kicked me out of the house.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sun Apr 02, 2023 3:58 pm HAPPY 51ST BIRTHDAY DOUG!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddy!

Thank you!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 02, 2023 4:09 pm Happy Birthday Doug! Hope you had a great day today!

Thank you too!

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Apr 02, 2023 4:20 pm Happy Birthday Doug! Hope your day is wonderful

Had a good day! Thank you!

CPC with an update and adjustment for Wednesday


AMENDED FOR SLOWING UPPER TROUGH, WESTWARD EXPANSION OF SEVERE THREAT

SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are possible over a large area from the Great Lakes region southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday. This may include cells capable of producing tornadoes and extensive wind damage, primarily north of the Ohio River, with other severe storms expected into the lower Mississippi Valley.

This amendment is primary due to the slowing upper trough, and the westward expansion of severe probabilities. Severe storms may be ongoing as far west as the St. Louis area at 12Z Wednesday, with favorable conditions remaining for tornadoes and damaging winds expending mainly northeastward. Farther south, lower 70s F dewpoints and heating ahead of a cold front is expected to support scattered storms during the day into the lower MS Valley, where mainly hail and damaging gusts will be possible. This westward demarcation of the severe threat will likely be adjusted further incoming updates.

dce wrote: ↑Mon Apr 03, 2023 3:35 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sun Apr 02, 2023 3:58 pm HAPPY 51ST BIRTHDAY DOUG!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddy!

Thank you!

You're quite welcome, bro!

Pepper wrote: ↑Mon Apr 03, 2023 9:35 am Wanted to get an update as to what you guys are thinking severe weather wise for the Sullivan Indiana area as to timing. My son is a supervisor for the Local Dominoes in that town thankfully he was not there Friday night and all of his employees have been accounted for. His building did not suffer much damage and has been supplying pizza to first responders and those who have lost everything. I told him the weather was looking interesting for that area again and he was asking about the timing as you can imagine cell service is an issue. To be honest it was sketchy on a good day out there, anyhow any insights would be appreciated. Thanks in advance

Hi Pepper,

So very thankful that your son and his employees are all okay.

I've never been to the town of Sullivan itself but my folks and I along our routes, since having moved to Greenville in 2013, would take trips on I-70 to Terre Haute and then got on to I-41 to head down to see my maternal grandmother in Princeton, IN (Gibson Co).

We would pass by seeing signs for Sullivan.

A lot of the same real estate that was affected and hit hard this past Fri.

Currently 66 here in G'ville and progged for around 50 Tues morning then topping out at around 72 in the afternoon.

Got the mowers ready foe the season over this past weekend. Now I'm waiting for my yard to not be so mushy so I can mow for the first time.

My home PC died so I had to order a new one today.

Good Evening and really a nice spring evening. Will post more about the mid-week system on Tuesday but I looked at the extended outlook an a big change over the past couple of days and showing much of the country well above normal in terms of temps. Why the change and one guess is the mjo which at one time showed it going back into phase 8-1 or so but the latest is more towards phase 6. Shows another big trough in the west as well. So Les maybe you will end up with a nice week of fishing. My main concern is to warm to fast in the northern plains and upper mid-west and major flooding in May