Absolute Vorticity

An 80% chance now on that wave.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

However... if it does develop into something, the wave is expected to turn more N in time (currently moving NW at 10 to 15 mph) so if that is the case, the CONUS would likely be missed.

Good Morning and really don't visit this area unless something is brewing. So far a slow season and still another month until we hit the peak. I see no changes in the below normal storms this year. Matter of fact looking at the ocean temps and other factors the African wave train we usually start to see may have a hard time in delivering many systems. The Atlantic waters are warm enough but you need more than warm water to promote tropical systems. My guess is the best chance for a tropical system later this month or early September will be with a front that moves all the way to the gulf coast or off the east coast and then some development over the water are possible. My guess is they will start counting systems that are below tropical status just to make their numbers and only the folks who really follow weather will know the truth.

Totally agree Tim! 100% chance of the season being below normal. Too much hot and dry dusty air. The SAL has been really bad over the Atlantic as well as wind shear so anything that tries to work off of Africa and make the trek across the Atlantic dies long before it has a chance to develop into much of anything. Maybe after mid August we'll see something as the GooFuS is hinting at on occasion as well as a few Ensemble models. But until then, I see nothing happening on the Atlantic side. All of those folks who went way above normal earlier this year in their tropical forecasts are eating a lot of crow right now. Pass the gravy, Tim!

I think this image tells the story. Latest SAL (Saharan African Dust) imagery continues to show a big reason why the tropical Atlantic season has been so quiet.


You can't get any convection to form when the low levels of the atmosphere are so dry per the water vapor image below. Both of these images have to change or the season will remain on the quiet side.

Great Post Les with the image and another item is the waters across the board in the Atlantic are above normal and you are probably saying well that should be good for formation. Not really because these storms like to gain strength in a place that is really warm and the energy can collect and form the tropical systems. If much of the Atlantic Ocean is warm then these storms will have problems in gathering to a certain spot and the energy if fanned out more and the development of these systems becomes much harder imo.

No doubt mets are lowering their totals on tropical systems and though we are a month from the peak I believe this will be a very low season in the Atlantic. Let's hope the folks at the NWS decides not to name every system that has winds above 40mph for a brief period.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 9:11 am Great Post Les with the image and another item is the waters across the board in the Atlantic are above normal and you are probably saying well that should be good for formation. Not really because these storms like to gain strength in a place that is really warm and the energy can collect and form the tropical systems. If much of the Atlantic Ocean is warm then these storms will have problems in gathering to a certain spot and the energy if fanned out more and the development of these systems becomes much harder imo.

No doubt mets are lowering their totals on tropical systems and though we are a month from the peak I believe this will be a very low season in the Atlantic. Let's hope the folks at the NWS decides not to name every system that has winds above 40mph for a brief period.

I couldn't agree more with this! Great post, Tim!

NHC is finally seeing a few signs of life with a couple of waves near and off the African Coast. Currently only low chances of development in the next 3-5 days are expected. Modeling is showing down the road a few storms forming and one of them a Gulf Storm as we get into late August.

Two waves out in the Eastern Atlantic that we are tracking and both have a 40% chance in the next 2 or 3 days with a 60% chance to develop over the next 5 days.

Watching 4 different tropical waves now in the Atlantic basin. None of them look to develop minus the one off the African Coast. That one still has the best chance at this time.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 9:11 am Great Post Les with the image and another item is the waters across the board in the Atlantic are above normal and you are probably saying well that should be good for formation. Not really because these storms like to gain strength in a place that is really warm and the energy can collect and form the tropical systems. If much of the Atlantic Ocean is warm then these storms will have problems in gathering to a certain spot and the energy if fanned out more and the development of these systems becomes much harder imo.

No doubt mets are lowering their totals on tropical systems and though we are a month from the peak I believe this will be a very low season in the Atlantic. Let's hope the folks at the NWS decides not to name every system that has winds above 40mph for a brief period.

The NHC and Colorado State both actually raised their forecasts in their August update.

NHC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... Slide1.JPG

Trevor wrote: ↑Sat Aug 19, 2023 2:02 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 9:11 am Great Post Les with the image and another item is the waters across the board in the Atlantic are above normal and you are probably saying well that should be good for formation. Not really because these storms like to gain strength in a place that is really warm and the energy can collect and form the tropical systems. If much of the Atlantic Ocean is warm then these storms will have problems in gathering to a certain spot and the energy if fanned out more and the development of these systems becomes much harder imo.

No doubt mets are lowering their totals on tropical systems and though we are a month from the peak I believe this will be a very low season in the Atlantic. Let's hope the folks at the NWS decides not to name every system that has winds above 40mph for a brief period.

The NHC and Colorado State both actually raised their forecasts in their August update.

NHC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... Slide1.JPG

That makes no sense to me unless they feel the Nino won't have any impacts for Sept and October. I mean shoot... you really are going to need a lot of named storms! Of course the NHC will name every t-storm cluster to make their forecasts.

Here is the NHC... we have TD6 now in the Atlantic. Look at the track and time it is excepted to stay a TD. I mean really? Why even waste the time!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.s ... t#contents

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 19, 2023 8:20 pm Here is the NHC... we have TD6 now in the Atlantic. Look at the track and time it is excepted to stay a TD. I mean really? Why even waste the time!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.s ... t#contents

Its as silly as TWC naming winter storms.

I agree 100p/c that we name way too many storms in the Atlantic. Yes we are in the peak season through mid-September and we will see some disturbed weather and the waters across the board are warmer than normal. Still believe a system usually needs to be sort of by itself to really form into a tropical system or Hurricane. At the moment just areas of disturbed weather and they sort of keep the energy in different areas and none are able to form into something bigger. No doubt we should see a true tropical storm or Hurricane in the next few weeks but will this happen near the USA or will they mainly be storms out to sea.

We have TS Franklin in the Eastern Caribbean which will remain a fish storm for CONUS interests.


TS Emily in the Eastern ATL does not look to gets strong and will also remain a fish storm. See, told ya they will get to above avg by naming everything.


TD6 isn't going to do anything. The next African wave has a 60% chance to develop in the next 5 days. Finally, a Gulf of Mexico wave also has a 50 / 50 chance at development.

TS Franklin has winds of 50 mph moving W at 12. He should begin to turn north then NE eventually in time impacting Hispaniola.

We now have TS Gert with winds of 40 mph moving W at 9. This one is expected to weaken into a TD and dissipate before getting to the Windward and Leeward Islands.

TS Emily has winds of 40 mph moving WNW at 12. Still expecting this one to remain a fish storm and weaken into a depression as the week rolls on not bothering any landmasses.

The African Wave now has 40 / 70% odds near the Cape Verde Islands. The Gulf of Mexico wave now has a 80% chance of development. This system could become a depression before hitting S Texas or N Mexico. Not sure if it will get a name or not.

We now have PTC 9 in the Gulf:

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS...
...FLOODING RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 89.9W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM ESE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for portions of south
Texas south of Port O'Connor. A Tropical Storm Watch has been
issued from Port O'Connor northward to Sargent.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, Texas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Port O'Connor to Sargent, Texas


To read the entire advisory and discussion:


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 1440.shtml?

We have TS Harold in the Gulf with winds of 45 mph. It will not last long and will make landfall across S TX and N Mexico later today. Another NHC BS naming scheme at work.

TS Harold is pushing into S TX now (the center) and we have TS Franklin as well that will push across the DR in the next couple of days then turn NNW and become a hurricane after that. Could potentially be impacts to Bermuda down the road. So far I do not expect CONUS impacts from Franklin.

Otherwise, the other tropical waves that are out there are weak and unorganized. Best chance is the one closest to Africa where it has a 50% chance to develop over the next 5 days. Gert is also dead.

Good Afternoon and though the waters in the GOM and Atlantic are above normal we have the problem of two many areas of slightly disturbed weather and none of these for the most part can get to be by themselves and form a nice tropical system. So you can say busy but really does not tell the full story. Sure before November they will have named enough storms to meet their quota lol.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Aug 22, 2023 4:34 pm Good Afternoon and though the waters in the GOM and Atlantic are above normal we have the problem of two many areas of slightly disturbed weather and none of these for the most part can get to be by themselves and form a nice tropical system. So you can say busy but really does not tell the full story. Sure before November they will have named enough storms to meet their quota lol.

NHC is terrible. The only system that was worth naming was Franklin. The rest of them had a life span less then 1 or 2 days. They have to make their forecast be correct when they went above avg don't they? What a scam... Check ACE at the end of the season. That number won't lie and will tell the truth about how dead this season truly has been.

The only thing in the Atlantic basin right now worth mentioning is TS Franklin which is currently moving N over the DR. Winds are at 40 mph moving N at 13. We'll see if the circulation can survive the mountainous terrain of the DR. If Franklin can hang on, it is still expected to become a hurricane in about 3 days and potentially be a problem for Bermuda in the next 5 days.

Otherwise, the African wave is not looking so good thanks to SAL and wind shear. The other wave in the Central Atlantic has a 50 / 70% odds of developing into a TS or Sub TS. That one will be another NHC sham if it gets named anyway.

Franklin has winds of 50 mph this morning moving N at 13 and away from the DR. Franklin is still expected to become a hurricane with the center passing well West of Bermuda per the NHC's forecast. If correct, Newfoundland should be impacted by this system sometime later next week.

The Central Atlantic wave (what was once Emily) has a 70% chance at becoming a TS again. The system (whatever happens with it) will continue moving North and not bother any land areas at this time.

Another wave between Africa and the Islands only has a 40% chance to develop over the next 5 days.

Finally, one last wave that has formed in the near the coast of Central America is forecast to move N into the NW Caribbean Sea and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico in the next week. This is the potential Gulf system that some modeling has shown to possibly impact FL / East Coast as we get into the final days of August. Currently, it has a 50% chance of development in the next 5 days.

Still keeping an eye on Franklin for Bermuda / Newfounland impacts later next week. It's moving slowly ESE at 5mph, but eventually, it will turn back to the NW and eventually N and pick up in forward speed. It is still expecting to become a hurricane by Sunday.

The other 2 waves out in the Atlantic look weak and currently show no signs of development over the next few days. The bigger item of interest is that wave now down in the Caribbean that has a high chance (80%) of development in the next 3-5 days. This is the Gulf Storm we keep seeing on models for next week. If it is the next one to get named, it'll be the "I" storm Idalia. Always be weary of the I named storms. There have been more tropical names retired by the letter I then any other letter in the alphabet.

Franklin has winds of 65 mph moving ENE at 5. IT will become a hurricane soon and even a major is possible. Still expecting no CONUS impacts and Bermuda is about the only land mass that I see that could feel its effects.

The other big ticket item is a wave moving N into the Gulf. A high chance of development and we should see a depression form this weekend. Gulf Coast folks and FL folks need to keep an eye on this system for sure.