February 2023 Discussion

[tpweather]

Back in December when the Polar Vortex stretched out we happen to be in a decent place where a nice shot of cold air came in though only for a brief period. Back then we had a south central ridge so the trough did not dig to far into the south central states. This time we look to have a southeast ridge and this gives the troughs a better shot of digging into the south central states. With this southeast ridge building over Florida the GOM is going to open for business. So we get these waves that are not all that strong but can grab quite a bit of moisture from the GOM.

Yes we got the storm before Christmas which was nice but that was about all she wrote. This time we are going to have at 7-10 days of active and cold weather but systems will be rolling through at different times and sometimes the models will see this several days ahead and other times its like boom 36 hours and a new storm pop up in a different location.

When the PV stretched out in December the CMC was the model that was by and far the best during that time period. The set up is somewhat different this time but we know models have their strengths and weakness and could this be pattern the CMC is the best at. We will see so I am going to hedge my bets and will tend to follow the CMC more over the next week. Of course I will see on a daily basis which models seem to be doing better but at this point my forecast this far out will be more in line with the CMC.

[tron777]

12Z GFS has a wave passing by just to our south on 1/31 then the cold comes in. Then, you can see a lot of overrunning rains over the Southern tier of states to begin Feb. Can we get the right timing of another arctic high dropping down to keep the boundary SE of us instead of it lifting back to the NW of us? This far away, we obviously don't know but this is the set up that we will be dealing with for next week. On this run of the GFS there is no cold sector precip at all which I think is wrong. We are in the mid 20s with the 32 degree line just S of I-64 in KY. 80s down in FL LOL So quite frankly, if that run were to pan out, I would expect more cold sector precip to be honest then what is shown here. It's the GFS and I am probably overanalyzing it anyway.

[tron777]

Tim, the foreign models IMO are certainly more realistic with this set up at this early stage of the game. 12Z CMC coming in now since you mentioned it and there are wintry weather chances and we are right on the fence again, which should totally be expected. By 2/4-5 we get a big rain storm because the cold air is gone and the front can push back north as a warm front with the bigger low cutting to our West. Where have we seen this before? It's all about timing, just like it always is. You want the front to be stalled out over the TN Valley or Lower OV and then have the cold trying to press in from the NW while the Gulf moisture overrides it. Models are going to absolutely struggle with this set up. The models will be changing on every run as the timing changes.

[tpweather]

Les back in Dec the Euro finally ended going with the CMC and as usual the CMC has problems once we get withing 72 hours which as always thrown me off especially when there are times its way ahead of the game and then for some reason hits a brick wall.

[tron777]

12Z GEFS members also coming in with a more realistic solution. I'm looking at the Precip Type on all of the members using the College of Dupage site and a lot of members show frz rain and sleet with snow to the north and rain to the south. As much as I dislike those kinds of precip, it isn't a shock with this set up seeing it showing up either.

[tron777]

Les back in Dec the Euro finally ended going with the CMC and as usual the CMC has problems once we get withing 72 hours which as always thrown me off especially when there are times its way ahead of the game and then for some reason hits a brick wall.

Tim, in the 5-7 period it is decent. But once you get to within 72 hours, start using the shorter term models more and not so much the global. NAM can sometimes be more useful, RGEM, and within 1-2 days, the HRRR and RAP. I'm starting to do that more and it worked out well with the nail biter system.

[tpweather]

12Z GEFS members also coming in with a more realistic solution. I'm looking at the Precip Type on all of the members using the College of Dupage site and a lot of members show frz rain and sleet with snow to the north and rain to the south. As much as I dislike those kinds of precip, it isn't a shock with this set up seeing it showing up either.

Les imo its going to be either snow rain or frz/rain if the systems are fairly weak. I do worry about the frz/rain though and again if we are deep enough in the cold layer at the surface but have that warmer layer further up that can be a cause for concern. Frz/rain is more of a problem once you get into the upper 20's and the precip rate is not out of hand. Give me 2-4 inches of snow instead of .2 inches of frz/rain any day of the week

[Bgoney]

0z EU ice chances through the next 10 days

Screenshot_20230126-124119_Chrome.jpg

[tron777]

We'll see how the 12Z Euro looks shortly but frz rain is a concern somewhere nearby that is for sure.

[tpweather]

Hey Les and my guess you like the Euro.

[tron777]

Hey Les and my guess you like the Euro.

Not this run LOL First we are cold and dry then when the moisture comes on 2/4 the cold is gone so it's a cold rain for us down here with ice / snow for our northern posters. The set up for next week is far from over as things continue to evolve. Going to need several more days easily before any kind of forecast can be thrown out there in my opinion.

[tpweather]

Hey Les and my guess you like the Euro.

Not this run LOL First we are cold and dry then when the moisture comes on 2/4 the cold is gone so it's a cold rain for us down here with ice / snow for our northern posters. The set up for next week is far from over as things continue to evolve. Going to need several more days easily before any kind of forecast can be thrown out there in my opinion.

I thought the Euro was a really nice run . Trend of not having the western ridge expand east was key and you can see the PV rotating back around. Watch this model over the next 2 days because imo this run was wonderful. Again different folks see different things on models and looking between the lines is what I try to do.

[tron777]

This is my take on it. At the surface, on the 0Z run the high was in a better position for the first wave around 1/31 or 2/1. The high was located over the S MN and N IA area which is usually good for us to keep the cold locked in. 12Z run had the high near St. Louis so the first wave gets squashed. Then, for 2/4 0Z Euro had the next high dropping in from just North of The Soo in Upper MI sliding SE into New England as the bigger wave is coming in. Ideally for snow and not ice, I would have liked that high to be a tad further Southwest over Upstate NY instead of Vermont. 12Z Euro has the high weaker and it's already over Maine on its way out exit stage right.

[tpweather]

This is my take on it. At the surface, on the 0Z run the high was in a better position for the first wave around 1/31 or 2/1. The high was located over the S MN and N IA area which is usually good for us to keep the cold locked in. 12Z run had the high near St. Louis so the first wave gets squashed. Then, for 2/4 0Z Euro had the next high dropping in from just North of The Soo in Upper MI sliding SE into New England as the bigger wave is coming in. Ideally for snow and not ice, I would have liked that high to be a tad further Southwest over Upstate NY instead of Vermont. 12Z Euro has the high weaker and it's already over Maine on its way out exit stage right.

Thanks Les and I see what you are saying about where the different items are placed next week. I was looking at the overall set up and thought it was in the right direction for a longer term period of cold. I was really not looking at specific storms at all and had to go back and see your thought process which is correct. Again we see different things which imo is wonderful and you are much more a storm specific while I tend to look at patterns and subtle moves by models that can mean a lot down the road.

[tron777]

This is my take on it. At the surface, on the 0Z run the high was in a better position for the first wave around 1/31 or 2/1. The high was located over the S MN and N IA area which is usually good for us to keep the cold locked in. 12Z run had the high near St. Louis so the first wave gets squashed. Then, for 2/4 0Z Euro had the next high dropping in from just North of The Soo in Upper MI sliding SE into New England as the bigger wave is coming in. Ideally for snow and not ice, I would have liked that high to be a tad further Southwest over Upstate NY instead of Vermont. 12Z Euro has the high weaker and it's already over Maine on its way out exit stage right.

Thanks Les and I see what you are saying about where the different items are placed next week. I was looking at the overall set up and thought it was in the right direction for a longer term period of cold. I was really not looking at specific storms at all and had to go back and see your thought process which is correct. Again we see different things which imo is wonderful and you are much more a storm specific while I tend to look at patterns and subtle moves by models that can mean a lot down the road.

Yeah, your post wasn't wrong at all. Sorry if mine came across like that. I wanted to clarify that. You are looking at the overall pattern and set up and you're right. I was absolutely looking at individual storms, placement of the baroclinic boundary, arctic highs etc.

[wrmwxfreak]

Hello, everyone...

I would like to put in an order for a snow day on Wednesday, February 1st. I'm a teacher, and I am absolutely dreading that day! Please and thank you!!

That's going to cost you

Literally worth ANY asking price. You have no idea what my day will entail if we are here...

[tron777]

Hello, everyone...

I would like to put in an order for a snow day on Wednesday, February 1st. I'm a teacher, and I am absolutely dreading that day! Please and thank you!!

That's going to cost you

Literally worth ANY asking price. You have no idea what my day will entail if we are here...

I would like it for a much, much different reason. Something to track and enjoy while I'm working.

[tron777]

18Z GFS keeps both waves 1/31-2/1 and GHD both suppressed.

[tpweather]

18Z GFS keeps both waves 1/31-2/1 and GHD both suppressed.

Did the latest gfs run forget to put moisture in their data. Looks more like a mid-September run with the void of precip.

[Pete1]

Streets in Burlington are covered now with this light snow. You know what that means? Boone county schools will freak out and delay or close.

[Pete1]

I knew it. Apparently The superintendent of Boone county schools doesn’t think any parents have jobs they have to go to. Unreal!!

“ Today, Friday January 25th, 2023 due to inclement Wx Conditions Boone County Schools and buses are on a 2 hour delay. No AM preschool.”

They can’t even get the date right in their text message. Complete incompetence!!

[tpweather]

I knew it. Apparently The superintendent of Boone county schools doesn’t think any parents have jobs they have to go to. Unreal!!

“ Today, Friday January 25th, 2023 due to inclement Wx Conditions Boone County Schools and buses are on a 2 hour delay. No AM preschool.”

They can’t even get the date right in their text message. Complete incompetence!!

Pete the public schools which I attended are getting worse each year. Sure the date is a small detail but just add up those small details and the system gets very messy.

[Pete1]

I knew it. Apparently The superintendent of Boone county schools doesn’t think any parents have jobs they have to go to. Unreal!!

“ Today, Friday January 25th, 2023 due to inclement Wx Conditions Boone County Schools and buses are on a 2 hour delay. No AM preschool.”

They can’t even get the date right in their text message. Complete incompetence!!

Pete the public schools which I attended are getting worse each year. Sure the date is a small detail but just add up those small details and the system gets very messy.

Completely agree, Tim

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a touch of snow overnight but the main concern is it the cold. You could feel it yesterday and with a nice breeze outside it feels like a late January day. Today and Saturday look nice and especially Saturday as we boost temps into the upper 40's. Rain arrives probably overnight Saturday and extend into Sunday. Not a big system but 1/4 inch is possible and then the cold settles in for a spell.

Most winters we get a week or two where the overriding events happen and next week is one to watch. Models will go back and forth on placement of the waves of low pressure so not concern at this point of forecasting those because most likely they will change in the next few days. At this point most models are showing at least one wave and some up to three next week that could be in our neighborhood. These systems really are a now cast situation and sometimes models have a hard time picking up on exact strength until the system or systems have formed.

Locally we look to be in the northern end of these systems at the moment which we give us a better shot of snow. However with the overriding events warm air is thrown up over the cold at the surface and the dreaded frz/rain is possible with each system.

[tron777]

Good morning! I'd say we are fair game for precip in the Tues - Thurs time period next week depending on how these waves time out and track. GFS is mainly snow while the CMC is an ice storm which no one wants. The Euro is mainly cold and dry with the precip staying down in Central KY. We may not have this dialed in until Sunday or Monday of next week the way it's looking so stay tuned for sure.