Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 11:22 am 12Z GFS came in juicer with 0.25" of precip to work with at CVG. We are right on the fence as we've already discussed.

Les we are playing with fire but that is okay. Give me 0.25 instead of 0.10 and then roll the dice

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 11:24 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 11:22 am 12Z GFS came in juicer with 0.25" of precip to work with at CVG. We are right on the fence as we've already discussed.

Les we are playing with fire but that is okay. Give me 0.25 instead of 0.10 and then roll the dice

7 come 11 and you won't crap out!

12Z CMC backs up the GFS's solution.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 11:34 am 12Z CMC backs up the GFS's solution.

Yes and even the best of models will have a hard time getting the exact dividing line between rain and snow. I still like the call through the heart of the area and that is the I-275 area to get 1-2 inches of slush. Southeast of there more rain of course with a little back end snow and northwest of here 1-2 inches more likely and can even see a few 3-4 inches if you get an hour or two of banding and that would be mainly towards the I-70 area from Indy to Dayton.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 11:38 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 11:34 am 12Z CMC backs up the GFS's solution.

Yes and even the best of models will have a hard time getting the exact dividing line between rain and snow. I still like the call through the heart of the area and that is the I-275 area to get 1-2 inches of slush. Southeast of there more rain of course with a little back end snow and northwest of here 1-2 inches more likely and can even see a few 3-4 inches if you get an hour or two of banding and that would be mainly towards the I-70 area from Indy to Dayton.

If dynamic cooling saves us and if the precip rate is heavy enough, this forecast should work out perfectly, Tim!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 11:39 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 11:38 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 11:34 am 12Z CMC backs up the GFS's solution.

Yes and even the best of models will have a hard time getting the exact dividing line between rain and snow. I still like the call through the heart of the area and that is the I-275 area to get 1-2 inches of slush. Southeast of there more rain of course with a little back end snow and northwest of here 1-2 inches more likely and can even see a few 3-4 inches if you get an hour or two of banding and that would be mainly towards the I-70 area from Indy to Dayton.

If dynamic cooling saves us and if the precip rate is heavy enough, this forecast should work out perfectly, Tim!

Les it was a close call imo but with the models coming in a little heavier on precip totals I would expect the system to be a little stronger and we can get that dynamic cooling for a few more hours. We may not know exactly until Sunday morning. I figured 24 hours in advance better give out some kind of forecast. The good thing this is the first of possible four storms over the next 10 days or so. Going to be very busy

Definitely going to be extremely busy no matter what happens. 35 / 25 here attm Clouds are eroding in Central / SKY now. I'll eye ball it per visible satellite that it is cloudy from around I-64 on north.

12Z Euro is a little more juicy as well. 0.28" QPF for CVG. Again, the mixing is right there on the doorstep. High risk, high reward as we've said.

18Z HRRR is still probably the coldest solution. If correct, looks great for the Metro, all snow and could easily get a couple of inches out of it. No clue if it's right or wrong, just posting what the model is showing. 15Z RAP is a tick warmer but still nice for Boone, Kenton, Campbell on north.

18Z NAM not quite as juicy as the 12Z run. About 0.20" for CVG to work with. Rain / snow line pretty much runs along I-71. It's a nice run for the I-70 Crew though. All snow with 0.30" of QPF to work with.

Well the sun is out and Les you called this forecast. A couple of hours should help temp get to 40. Still sitting at 38 but with 2 plus hours of possible sunshine getting to 40 should be no problem. Love to see several hours of clear sky tonight and let the temp drop before the clouds return.

I'm still cloudy and 36. CVG was cloudy and 35 per the 3pm reading. We made it thru the majority of the day without seeing it and this time of day, the heating is about over since the sun sets at 5:47pm. I checked the visible satellite and the clearing line is very close to me so I'll probably get an hour to 90 mins worth, which might get me to 40... might. Agree with you... would love to see that temp drop this evening before that stops as you said, due to increasing cloud cover.

18Z RGEM keeps it mainly snow form Boone, Kenton, Campbell on north An inch or so for us down here to 3" for I-70 Crew.

Not much change from the 18Z GFS. We're on the fence with the rain / snow line and we will see some snow showers lingering into the day on Monday as well. Most models are showing that. QPF for Sunday is 0.30"+ so still coming in juicy. Looks good for an inch CVG to 3" I-70 Crew.

Clear skies here attm. 36 was it for my high today. 35 now with a dew of 26. We'll see how much temps can drop before clouds increase from SKY ahead of our system for tomorrow.

32 now at CVG, 33 here as of this post. Drop baby drop!

SWS out for parts of Ohio.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
359 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2023

INZ050-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>054-060>062-221000-
Wayne-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-
Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-
Including the cities of Richmond, Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater,
Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, Bellefontaine,
Marysville, Delaware, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City, Urbana,
Springfield, London, West Jefferson, Plain City, Eaton, Camden,
Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek, Fairborn, and Xenia
359 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2023

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...

Snow will overspread the region Sunday morning and continue
through the day as a low pressure system moves through the Ohio
Valley. Snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches can be expected with
a few locally higher amounts possible.

Be prepared for snowy driving conditions if you plan to travel on
Sunday.

29 degrees currently IMBY. High today was 35. Feel good about a few inches tomorrow!!

Ditto for my hood. 29 / 24 here. 18Z Euro is pretty juicy! 0.34" QPF at CVG. Naturally thermals are too warm for all snow. 0.28" for DAY all snow. Looks really nice for our I-70 Crew!

Good Evening and got that nice cool down and I so 29 outside. I like what I see from the NWS for folks north and west of here where accumulations could be a little higher.

Checking SPC mesopage here and the northern low that we have been watching over the OK TX panhandles earlier today is weakening as we expected and it's just a very broad area of low pressure now. Waiting to see where that new southern low will pop to see if it's further south then model guidance or not. My current thinking is that it maybe trying to form in the Gulf south of the LA coast. IF this is correct... IF... that would be more south then guidance, I just can't quite tell at this time.

I agree with the juicer models that we've been seeing. If you look at the current radar picture there is some nice rainfall over the Southern US and radar continues to fill in between the snow area in KS and the rain over the SE US. So more moisture in other words is increasing over MO and AR. This is going to be a really interesting system IMO and if you live NW of the Metro and in our I-70 Crew zones, you should be tickled to death for tomorrow.

30 / 25 as of 8pm at CVG. 28 / 24 here.

Down to 28 here so that has been a good sign.

Time for the next game so hopefully back on here at halftime to see the latest and greatest model output. Getting closer to a now cast though.

0Z HRRR rolling in and it looks great for Boone, Kenton, Campbell on north and west. This model is either going to fall flat on its face, or it will have correctly picked up on the dynamic cooling thanks to the heavier precip rates. We have both said this earlier Tim that it is a nowcast. It absolutely will be. I'm excited either way to see how this plays out. I could see WAA hurting us just as much as dynamic cooling helping us. You can make an honest case for both.

21Z RAP is a little too close for comfort (like a lot of models have been) for CVG but just north looks great on this run.